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> I know fifteen years ago I was making video calls over my GSM phone, chatting with people via SMS, AIM, and ICQ, etc. As an early-adopter with sufficient inc

> I know fifteen years ago I was making video calls over my GSM phone, chatting with people via SMS, AIM, and ICQ, etc. As an early-adopter with sufficient income to afford whatever gadget you're talking about, I'm sure you found a lot of utility communicating with the <1% of our population that shared your position and enthusiasm. The other 99% of us had land-lines. Only some of us had the internet. > Specifically in computing, the past ten or fifteen years have been a war on general-purpose computing I have no idea what you're talking about. Our society is now saturated with computers. We carry computers in our pockets that we casually call 'smart'. These devices are wirelessly connected in a global network that we casually call 'the internet'. Computing is so ubiquitous that we barely notice it anymore. > Sorry Sam, things are prettier now, but there's nothing new under the sun . . . everything he talks about existed ten years ago in some form. Yes, the retina display existed in some form: in low-contrast PDA displays. Yes, 4G and 100mps broadband existed in some form: as in, dial-up screeching. Yes, Reddit existed in some form, as in your local BBS. Sometimes difference of degree are so great that they become differences of kind, precisely because they make further technological innovations possible. Any startup that hinges upon "network-effects" knows this. Anyone who's used an Oculus Rift has experienced it. There's nothing new under the sun? Only if you're living in the past.

untog 12y ago
There's nothing new under the sun? I don't think anyone is suggesting that nothing is new. Just that nothing is mind-blowingly new. As you say, the last ten years have seen a lot of improvements in existing concepts - connections are faster, displays are better, etc. etc. But that's not the kind of mind blowing change Sam suggests that it is. If you had told me ten years ago that tech would look like it does today I would say "yep, sounds about right".
- wildermuthn 12y ago
  I think the Oculus Rift is certainly mind-blowing. Also the fact that I can work remotely effectively. Thinking on this further, the difference between 10 years and 20 years is immense: 2004 vs 1994. Maybe we just need another 10 years to see how far we've really come since 2004. We are only just beginning to experience what happens when you connect the global population wirelessly.
  - modoc 12y ago
    I was working remotely effectively starting in '98-'99. DSL + VPN + Thinkpad + cell phone + etc...
    - schandur 12y ago
      Heck, back in 2004, I was using a Nokia 3650 to SSH to one of our servers and make configuration changes to our backup software. While riding in a car.
- to3m 12y ago
  Yes. It felt like there was some kind of tipping point around the late 1990s, when mobile phone + ADSL + popular internet all seemed to happen at once. 1994 to 2004 = big changes; 2004 - 2014 = not so big. I suppose that looking back it just seems like by 2004, there was a whole ton of stuff that by 1994 standards would have been implausible - whereas here in 2014, a lot of the impressive stuff would in 2004 have been merely impractical. Or perhaps I'm just old and tired now. Who knows. Maybe I'm underselling SSDs. Anyway, whatever. Time for my nap.
stonogo 12y ago
> As an early-adopter with sufficient income to afford whatever gadget you're talking about, I'm sure you found a lot of utility communicating with the <1% of our population that shared your position and enthusiasm. The other 99% of us had land-lines. Only some of us had the internet. I can only assume this is a deliberate refusal to see my point. "Whatever gadget I'm talking about" was nearly every nokia or ericsson phone of the era -- and they interoperated, unlike facetime or whatsapp. Nice try invoking some kind of class war crap; I was engaging in video calls while I was a part-time cook at a diner. > I have no idea what you're talking about. Our society is now saturated with computers. We carry computers in our pockets that we casually call 'smart'. These devices are wirelessly connected in a global network that we casually call 'the internet'. Computing is so ubiquitous that we barely notice it anymore. Setting aside your poor attempt at sarcasm, the computers you are talking about are not general-purpose machines. Selecting a hardware platform today is largely selecting which walled garden you prefer. Ten years ago I could pick any hardware manufacturer and any software stack and have a reasonable chance at interoperating with other people who had made other decisions. That's not the case any more; hell, Apple Keynote won't even open files written by older versions of Apple Keynote. And none of the functionality you're talking about was absent in 2004. I had maps and navigation on a cellphone even then. >Yes, the retina display existed in some form: in low-contrast PDA displays. Yes, 4G and 100mps broadband existed in some form: as in, dial-up screeching. Yes, Reddit existed in some form, as in your local BBS. Your analogies are specious. I had a 1600x1200 15" laptop in 2001. I had DSL in 2001. I had internet web forums in 2001. Fast forward: resolution has gone up, DSL has got cheaper (100mbit fiber is available to a VANISHINGLY small subset of the population, mister 99%), and the number (not quality) of web forums have gone up. > Sometimes difference of degree are so great that they become differences of kind, This is something that only cheerleaders and PR directors say. A difference in degree is inevitable; a difference in kind is difficult. Oculus Rift is a perfect example. It's shitloads of hype surrounding no product, no market. It's a really neat gadget with very specific possibilities, just like the Virtual Boy was. It is not a revolution.
nilkn 12y ago
Granted, I was in high school in 2004, but I don't think many (any?) people I knew back then even had unlimited texting. Most families had a single computer in the household, and if you wanted to chat with friends on MSN you'd have to block out a piece of your evening specifically to sit at the computer and do that. Better hope your friends are on! People would call each other very briefly to tell them they were going to be on MSN. Once you're off, you're off -- no MSN messages on your phone. Sure, the improvements between now and 2004 have mostly been incremental in nature. But those incremental improvements have added up to a vast net change. General access to technology and the internet has increased exponentially. Every little piece of technology is a bit easier to use, it works a bit better and more reliably, and 10x as many people are using it and connected with each other while doing so.
bambax 12y ago
> Only some of us had the internet Ten years ago was in 2004, not 1994 or 1984. In 2004 EVERYBODY had Internet and email, and most also had a mobile phone. Since 2004 the only innovation that I use everyday is Dropbox... it improved my life but didn't "change" it. I used to copy files on portable hard drives, and I don't have to do this anymore, which is great, but that's it. I have yet to step into an Uber car or (God forbid!) rent an apartment on AirBnB; I text to my friends (like I have done since at least 1995!), as neither them nor I use Snapchat or WhatsApp; I started a collection of mp3 files in 1999 and it's still growing, no need for Spotify (I did buy a Sonos system --in 2006-- that is still running unchanged). I don't think I live in the past but I fail to see what great innovation happened in the last 10 years. To me, the last two were the Internet itself, and then Google search.
- sedachv 12y ago
  The Spotify example is pathetic - their catalog sucks and their social features are terrible. Dragging music licensing onto the Internet is not innovation - it's just helping prop up the idiotic regime (read http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Music_licensing#.22Happy_Birthday_to_You.22 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Music_licensing#.22Happy_Birthd... and talk to someone who has worked in a music rights clearinghouse). You can say "what about Soundcloud!" for the things you can't get on Spotify. mp3.com was around doing the exact same thing in 1998. Between mp3.com and Napster, Internet music was actually a better experience in 1999. VKontakte is the only thing better that's out there right now in terms of catalog, social discovery, and streaming.
xorcist 12y ago
In 2004 I had 100 Mbps broadband. I had a 3G phone. I had a work laptop with a decent screen. Those actually regressed in the market for several years before a certain manufacturer popularized high-DPI again. I also had a fanless laptop before that one. I'm still waiting on a modern one... (Apple, are you listening?)

untog 12y ago

There's nothing new under the sun? I don't think anyone is suggesting that nothing is new. Just that nothing is mind-blowingly new. As you say, the last ten years have seen a lot of improvements in existing concepts - connections are faster, displays are better, etc. etc. But that's not the kind of mind blowing change Sam suggests that it is. If you had told me ten years ago that tech would look like it does today I would say "yep, sounds about right".

wildermuthn 12y ago
I think the Oculus Rift is certainly mind-blowing. Also the fact that I can work remotely effectively. Thinking on this further, the difference between 10 years and 20 years is immense: 2004 vs 1994. Maybe we just need another 10 years to see how far we've really come since 2004. We are only just beginning to experience what happens when you connect the global population wirelessly.
- modoc 12y ago
  I was working remotely effectively starting in '98-'99. DSL + VPN + Thinkpad + cell phone + etc...
  - schandur 12y ago
    Heck, back in 2004, I was using a Nokia 3650 to SSH to one of our servers and make configuration changes to our backup software. While riding in a car.
to3m 12y ago
Yes. It felt like there was some kind of tipping point around the late 1990s, when mobile phone + ADSL + popular internet all seemed to happen at once. 1994 to 2004 = big changes; 2004 - 2014 = not so big. I suppose that looking back it just seems like by 2004, there was a whole ton of stuff that by 1994 standards would have been implausible - whereas here in 2014, a lot of the impressive stuff would in 2004 have been merely impractical. Or perhaps I'm just old and tired now. Who knows. Maybe I'm underselling SSDs. Anyway, whatever. Time for my nap.

stonogo 12y ago

> As an early-adopter with sufficient income to afford whatever gadget you're talking about, I'm sure you found a lot of utility communicating with the <1% of our population that shared your position and enthusiasm. The other 99% of us had land-lines. Only some of us had the internet. I can only assume this is a deliberate refusal to see my point. "Whatever gadget I'm talking about" was nearly every nokia or ericsson phone of the era -- and they interoperated, unlike facetime or whatsapp. Nice try invoking some kind of class war crap; I was engaging in video calls while I was a part-time cook at a diner. > I have no idea what you're talking about. Our society is now saturated with computers. We carry computers in our pockets that we casually call 'smart'. These devices are wirelessly connected in a global network that we casually call 'the internet'. Computing is so ubiquitous that we barely notice it anymore. Setting aside your poor attempt at sarcasm, the computers you are talking about are not general-purpose machines. Selecting a hardware platform today is largely selecting which walled garden you prefer. Ten years ago I could pick any hardware manufacturer and any software stack and have a reasonable chance at interoperating with other people who had made other decisions. That's not the case any more; hell, Apple Keynote won't even open files written by older versions of Apple Keynote. And none of the functionality you're talking about was absent in 2004. I had maps and navigation on a cellphone even then. >Yes, the retina display existed in some form: in low-contrast PDA displays. Yes, 4G and 100mps broadband existed in some form: as in, dial-up screeching. Yes, Reddit existed in some form, as in your local BBS. Your analogies are specious. I had a 1600x1200 15" laptop in 2001. I had DSL in 2001. I had internet web forums in 2001. Fast forward: resolution has gone up, DSL has got cheaper (100mbit fiber is available to a VANISHINGLY small subset of the population, mister 99%), and the number (not quality) of web forums have gone up. > Sometimes difference of degree are so great that they become differences of kind, This is something that only cheerleaders and PR directors say. A difference in degree is inevitable; a difference in kind is difficult. Oculus Rift is a perfect example. It's shitloads of hype surrounding no product, no market. It's a really neat gadget with very specific possibilities, just like the Virtual Boy was. It is not a revolution.

nilkn 12y ago

Granted, I was in high school in 2004, but I don't think many (any?) people I knew back then even had unlimited texting. Most families had a single computer in the household, and if you wanted to chat with friends on MSN you'd have to block out a piece of your evening specifically to sit at the computer and do that. Better hope your friends are on! People would call each other very briefly to tell them they were going to be on MSN. Once you're off, you're off -- no MSN messages on your phone. Sure, the improvements between now and 2004 have mostly been incremental in nature. But those incremental improvements have added up to a vast net change. General access to technology and the internet has increased exponentially. Every little piece of technology is a bit easier to use, it works a bit better and more reliably, and 10x as many people are using it and connected with each other while doing so.

bambax 12y ago

> Only some of us had the internet Ten years ago was in 2004, not 1994 or 1984. In 2004 EVERYBODY had Internet and email, and most also had a mobile phone. Since 2004 the only innovation that I use everyday is Dropbox... it improved my life but didn't "change" it. I used to copy files on portable hard drives, and I don't have to do this anymore, which is great, but that's it. I have yet to step into an Uber car or (God forbid!) rent an apartment on AirBnB; I text to my friends (like I have done since at least 1995!), as neither them nor I use Snapchat or WhatsApp; I started a collection of mp3 files in 1999 and it's still growing, no need for Spotify (I did buy a Sonos system --in 2006-- that is still running unchanged). I don't think I live in the past but I fail to see what great innovation happened in the last 10 years. To me, the last two were the Internet itself, and then Google search.

sedachv 12y ago
The Spotify example is pathetic - their catalog sucks and their social features are terrible. Dragging music licensing onto the Internet is not innovation - it's just helping prop up the idiotic regime (read http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Music_licensing#.22Happy_Birthday_to_You.22 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Music_licensing#.22Happy_Birthd... and talk to someone who has worked in a music rights clearinghouse). You can say "what about Soundcloud!" for the things you can't get on Spotify. mp3.com was around doing the exact same thing in 1998. Between mp3.com and Napster, Internet music was actually a better experience in 1999. VKontakte is the only thing better that's out there right now in terms of catalog, social discovery, and streaming.

xorcist 12y ago

In 2004 I had 100 Mbps broadband. I had a 3G phone. I had a work laptop with a decent screen. Those actually regressed in the market for several years before a certain manufacturer popularized high-DPI again. I also had a fanless laptop before that one. I'm still waiting on a modern one... (Apple, are you listening?)