5 ms·

If you don't think about technical analysis as charts and lines, but rather patterns or cycles of market (and human) behavior (which is of course what the chart

by jqm 12y ago

If you don't think about technical analysis as charts and lines, but rather patterns or cycles of market (and human) behavior (which is of course what the charts and lines represent) you might see how technical analysis could have some validity. Are there patterns in markets? Are there patterns in crowd behavior? I think so. Others may disagree. Another point... if enough people believe and act on technical analysis signals, the prophecy becomes self fulfilling to an extent. This is not to say a consistent simple mathematical formula involving Bolinger Bands or the like can be developed with any certainty. I think prediction based on patterns is art as much as science and involves a lot of probabilities rather than exacts.

joshu 12y ago
You're kidding, right?
- quink 12y ago
  But Josh, don't you understand that 120 days in a past market is just the same as 120 days in the future market? As we all know the stock market is innately tied to certain magic specific numbers of days that are ever unchanging. Like 14, 30 and 70 will always be relevant when you're RSIing. Incidentally, your biorhythm cycle may be at a low point atm, so take care. Especially as you were born under the astrological sign of head and shoulders. Meanwhile, however, I've heard about this guy who tells me that at least on the Australian ASX you can't even rely on the number of shorts having been placed to predict whether a stock will go down. But to that I say poppycock, there's no way, after all, that the stock prices reflect the currently public knowledge and thus have already assigned a reasonable price taking into account all that is reasonably known about the future. Never forget - the average market participant is always smarter than the market and therefore TA works for them /s
  - joshu 12y ago
    Good point. (Ps: joshua not josh)
crimsonalucard 12y ago
You know what else has patterns? The weather.
- gfodor 12y ago
  Not saying TA is legit, but uh, we can predict the weather with better than random probability.

by jqm 12y ago

joshu 12y ago

You're kidding, right?

quink 12y ago
But Josh, don't you understand that 120 days in a past market is just the same as 120 days in the future market? As we all know the stock market is innately tied to certain magic specific numbers of days that are ever unchanging. Like 14, 30 and 70 will always be relevant when you're RSIing. Incidentally, your biorhythm cycle may be at a low point atm, so take care. Especially as you were born under the astrological sign of head and shoulders. Meanwhile, however, I've heard about this guy who tells me that at least on the Australian ASX you can't even rely on the number of shorts having been placed to predict whether a stock will go down. But to that I say poppycock, there's no way, after all, that the stock prices reflect the currently public knowledge and thus have already assigned a reasonable price taking into account all that is reasonably known about the future. Never forget - the average market participant is always smarter than the market and therefore TA works for them /s
- joshu 12y ago
  Good point. (Ps: joshua not josh)

crimsonalucard 12y ago

You know what else has patterns? The weather.

gfodor 12y ago
Not saying TA is legit, but uh, we can predict the weather with better than random probability.