3 ms·
Sometime before that, I'm guessing in about 3 years +/- 6 months, the capacity+performance advantages of flash will reach a point where spinning disk doesn't ma
by ghshephard 12y ago
Sometime before that, I'm guessing in about 3 years +/- 6 months, the capacity+performance advantages of flash will reach a point where spinning disk doesn't make sense, volumes of flash being ordered start to accelerate, spinning disk volumes plateau, and investments in developing the technology adjust accordingly (more investment in improving flash, less in spinning disk)
I would be willing to wager that new models of laptops in 2020 with spinning disk will be uncommon, and, by 2023, except for niche verticals. basically non-existent. Same for Desktop 2 years later in each category.
2025 will mark the end of consumers buying spinning disk.
- mark-r 12y agoI think it will happen much sooner than that. Flash doesn't have to match the price/GB of hard drives, it just has to match at the minimum viable system level. A lot of people could survive with 120GB, and that number goes up drastically when you hit 240GB. When the price of those SSDs reaches the hard drive floor of about $50, hard drives will become a niche product appealing only to those who actually need multiple terabytes.
- hadoukenio 12y ago> I would be willing to wager that new models of laptops in 2020 with spinning disk will be uncommon How about more like 2015. You're already forgetting MacbookAir/Chromebook/Ultrabook crowd are slowly taking over (which have no spinning disks).