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I also like to keep in mind that investors who purchase a percentage stake in the company valuing a company at 25 Billion probably have favorable terms and pref

I also like to keep in mind that investors who purchase a percentage stake in the company valuing a company at 25 Billion probably have favorable terms and preferred stock such that they will make money even if Uber goes through a liquidation event at less than that amount. I see Uber being a 10 Billion dollar company without any problem.

shawn-butler 12y ago
How? Aren't they 1) basically facing a serious organized labor problem once they become actually legal, and 2) 5-10 years away from being made irrelevant by autonomous technology?
- benzoate 12y ago
  I think they're 5-10 years away from having a solution to their organised labour problem
  - electromagnetic 12y ago
    Well there's a big issue here. If they have labourers, they're 5-10 years away from an end to their problem. If they have organized labourers, they're 5-10 years away from their end. Uber is facing union efforts. If they go through, Uber will end in 5-10 years. Autonamous transit will deploy far faster than Uber will be able to shirk off any unionized labour. If they get unionized labour, their first attempt to implement autonanous vehicles will lead to a strike, meaning a competitor can swoop in and replace them.
    - fragmede 12y ago
      > If they have organized labourers, they're 5-10 years away from their end. Ignoring the self-driving car bit, how does unionization of drivers end Uber?
    - hyperbovine 12y ago
      Autonomous transit will not deploy in 5-10 years, I guarantee you.
  - prostoalex 12y ago
    Wouldn't a software-laden self-driven car also eliminate the need for a dispatching company?
    - bthornbury 12y ago
      This is difficult to say, and (in my opinion) largely depends on the price of self-driving cars. If Self-driving cars become available but are unaffordable (due to very expensive equipment onboard), Uber will be in an excellent position to make an investment in these cars where the average taxpayer will not. Uber will then be rid of it's largest cost, human drivers. They will have the dispatch system in place to organize their self-driving vehicles and will be able to offer their service at an incredibly low price compared to the price of buying a self-driving car. Uber looks at a massive upside. If self-driving cars are offered affordably, Uber can still offer it's services way cheaper and nothing changes on the consumer side. People still have cars. Theoretically, the demand for their service would still increase.
      - prostoalex 12y ago
        > Uber will then be rid of it's largest cost, human drivers. Drivers also currently clean, maintain, fill up (charge up) and park the vehicles for the night, so those will be some costs to be assumed by the new car owner. Someone of that size can probably cut pretty good deals with car washes, parking garages and gas stations (electric charging facilities), but it will eat up into margins. > Uber looks at a massive upside. Maybe. If it's a business with superb returns, manufacturers might just look into setting up their own rental/dispatching company, the way car rental companies have an equity relationship with auto manufacturers to maintain the sales. It becomes a business with a fairly low barrier to enter.
- ghaff 12y ago
  >5-10 years away from being made irrelevant by autonomous technology? I'm a skeptic on this one. I'd love to be proven wrong but getting from autonomous under limited circumstances (say designated section of limited access highways) to the more general case seems an enormous distinction that will span decades. Fifty years? Yeah, I could believe that. But not 10. (And I'd also argue that if AI is at a level where you could have truly autonomous cars, you're also at a level of truly profound change in many, many different areas.)
  - qq66 12y ago
    The Google car's 300,000 accident-free miles demonstrates that we are technologically quite close to a level where we can have truly autonomous cars, even if the regulatory and societal frameworks need some time to catch up. And yes, we are also at a level of truly profound change in many, many different areas (such as the conversion of the middle-class salaried job into a freelance mixture of Ubering and Taskrabbiting). I think the time you're describing is already here.
    - krapp 12y ago
      How many of those accident-free miles were in uncontrolled conditions? How many of them were negotiating traffic in a rainstorm, or unplanned detours around construction, or getting boxed in by semis on the interstate, or dealing with people maybe or maybe not about to jump across from the median, or anything near the sort of calamitous and hard to manage situations typically leading to human accidents or fatality? The Google car is brilliant but from what I understand "quite close" is stretching it.
      - qq66 12y ago
        The Google car project is what, 5-10 years old? I assume that in 5-10 years it will be more capable than a human driver across the naturally encountered spectrum of driving conditions. That's "quite close" to me.
    - ghaff 12y ago
      The average guy or gal on the street across much of the US has never heard of Taskrabbit and many have never heard of Uber. And, frankly, that's a pretty dystopian future you describe. Fortunately, it's not here for most people. And if I drive or walk in a large city and try to imagine an AI navigating that chaos from door to door, my mind boggles. Not to take away from the impressive work that has taken place over the last five to ten years but the "replace human 100%" use case seems really really challenging--and far out.
- redwood 12y ago
  on the contrary uber is position to dominate the self driving car industry in terms of actual service provided to passengers

shawn-butler 12y ago

How? Aren't they 1) basically facing a serious organized labor problem once they become actually legal, and 2) 5-10 years away from being made irrelevant by autonomous technology?

benzoate 12y ago
I think they're 5-10 years away from having a solution to their organised labour problem
- electromagnetic 12y ago
  Well there's a big issue here. If they have labourers, they're 5-10 years away from an end to their problem. If they have organized labourers, they're 5-10 years away from their end. Uber is facing union efforts. If they go through, Uber will end in 5-10 years. Autonamous transit will deploy far faster than Uber will be able to shirk off any unionized labour. If they get unionized labour, their first attempt to implement autonanous vehicles will lead to a strike, meaning a competitor can swoop in and replace them.
  - fragmede 12y ago
    > If they have organized labourers, they're 5-10 years away from their end. Ignoring the self-driving car bit, how does unionization of drivers end Uber?
  - hyperbovine 12y ago
    Autonomous transit will not deploy in 5-10 years, I guarantee you.
- prostoalex 12y ago
  Wouldn't a software-laden self-driven car also eliminate the need for a dispatching company?
  - bthornbury 12y ago
    This is difficult to say, and (in my opinion) largely depends on the price of self-driving cars. If Self-driving cars become available but are unaffordable (due to very expensive equipment onboard), Uber will be in an excellent position to make an investment in these cars where the average taxpayer will not. Uber will then be rid of it's largest cost, human drivers. They will have the dispatch system in place to organize their self-driving vehicles and will be able to offer their service at an incredibly low price compared to the price of buying a self-driving car. Uber looks at a massive upside. If self-driving cars are offered affordably, Uber can still offer it's services way cheaper and nothing changes on the consumer side. People still have cars. Theoretically, the demand for their service would still increase.
    - prostoalex 12y ago
      > Uber will then be rid of it's largest cost, human drivers. Drivers also currently clean, maintain, fill up (charge up) and park the vehicles for the night, so those will be some costs to be assumed by the new car owner. Someone of that size can probably cut pretty good deals with car washes, parking garages and gas stations (electric charging facilities), but it will eat up into margins. > Uber looks at a massive upside. Maybe. If it's a business with superb returns, manufacturers might just look into setting up their own rental/dispatching company, the way car rental companies have an equity relationship with auto manufacturers to maintain the sales. It becomes a business with a fairly low barrier to enter.
ghaff 12y ago
>5-10 years away from being made irrelevant by autonomous technology? I'm a skeptic on this one. I'd love to be proven wrong but getting from autonomous under limited circumstances (say designated section of limited access highways) to the more general case seems an enormous distinction that will span decades. Fifty years? Yeah, I could believe that. But not 10. (And I'd also argue that if AI is at a level where you could have truly autonomous cars, you're also at a level of truly profound change in many, many different areas.)
- qq66 12y ago
  The Google car's 300,000 accident-free miles demonstrates that we are technologically quite close to a level where we can have truly autonomous cars, even if the regulatory and societal frameworks need some time to catch up. And yes, we are also at a level of truly profound change in many, many different areas (such as the conversion of the middle-class salaried job into a freelance mixture of Ubering and Taskrabbiting). I think the time you're describing is already here.
  - krapp 12y ago
    How many of those accident-free miles were in uncontrolled conditions? How many of them were negotiating traffic in a rainstorm, or unplanned detours around construction, or getting boxed in by semis on the interstate, or dealing with people maybe or maybe not about to jump across from the median, or anything near the sort of calamitous and hard to manage situations typically leading to human accidents or fatality? The Google car is brilliant but from what I understand "quite close" is stretching it.
    - qq66 12y ago
      The Google car project is what, 5-10 years old? I assume that in 5-10 years it will be more capable than a human driver across the naturally encountered spectrum of driving conditions. That's "quite close" to me.
  - ghaff 12y ago
    The average guy or gal on the street across much of the US has never heard of Taskrabbit and many have never heard of Uber. And, frankly, that's a pretty dystopian future you describe. Fortunately, it's not here for most people. And if I drive or walk in a large city and try to imagine an AI navigating that chaos from door to door, my mind boggles. Not to take away from the impressive work that has taken place over the last five to ten years but the "replace human 100%" use case seems really really challenging--and far out.
redwood 12y ago
on the contrary uber is position to dominate the self driving car industry in terms of actual service provided to passengers