4 ms·

You've missed the point. They won't get PC-netbooks not because they couldn't, but because they don't need to. What use a netbook is if there's little-to-no el

by borism 17y ago

You've missed the point. They won't get PC-netbooks not because they couldn't, but because they don't need to. What use a netbook is if there's little-to-no electricity, no broadband access, no wifi or cable router, and you're illiterate? Zero. With regards to HTML - perhaps author is mixing protocols and markup languages up. But that isn't the point. The point is that a lot of the "development" like Web 2.0 won't be accessible to people in the developing world. Show me a smartphone (well maybe except highest range iphone-android) that won't choke on your average DHTML/AJAX site.

Tichy 17y ago
If you are illiterate, SMS and WAP won't do much good either. But you can pay the micro-entrepreneur to read stuff for you, maybe. Also, a netbook surfing via GSM might still be better than nothing. My first modem (1993) was probably slower than GSM, but I still used the internet a lot. YouTube was not around yet. Apparently they do have electricity, because that would be needed for the phones, too. Especially the Nokia ones that need daily recharging.
InclinedPlane 17y ago
I think you've missed my point. It's silly to imagine that the rest of the world will start buying smart phones yet they will remain without electricity, broadband, literacy, etc. The numerous examples we have from history indicate this won't be the case. People value electricity, and sanitation, and literacy, and all the other things that are valued in first world economies. If people can perform work that pays enough for them to buy smart phones, then they will surely work to buy all those other things as well. The image of some 3rd worlder sitting in a corrugated aluminum lean-to amidst filth and poverty while spending all their hard earned money on iPhone apps is fantasy. The 3rd world will get to work, they will make money, and slowly but surely they'll build infrastructure and acquire wealth and be just as wealthy as the 1st world. Taiwan did it. South Korea did it. Many countries in South America and Eastern Europe are doing it right now. Back to the main point. In 5 years the "highest range" iphone-android phones will be obsolete. Phones of that class, the class that can browse the ajax/css web, will be so cheap they will be considered entry level phones. In 10 years iphone equivalent phones will be sold in blister packs with prepaid phone planes in convenience stores. In short, the premise of this article is economically, culturally, and technologically naive in the extreme. It should not be taken seriously.
- nwatson 17y ago
  You say a third-worlder in a lean-to shack might not spend their hard-earned money on iPhone apps. I lived in Rio de Janeiro in the early seventies as a small kid. My parents were missionaries and we'd visit very poor areas of town often, and some times we'd go to the famous "favelas" (slums) where people live in improvised lean-to-shack housing. People in the favelas didn't have much, but almost every corrugated-metal/wood/cardboard shack had a TV antenna. These days people might not spend the money on the apps but they'll spend it on an iPhone or a smart-phone. They'll find a cheap way to get the apps they really need. In Brazil people love technology, especially when it helps them connect with others. I don't think it's much different in other third-world places.
nwatson 17y ago
Smartphones will become cheaper, more powerful, more rugged, and third-world customers will opt for them because they can't afford the PC yet want access to the wonderful things they can do on the web. Data plans will be ubiquitous even in poor areas, services will spring up where people can plug in every day for a small fee where there is no electricity, and people will learn to read when there's a reason to. They'll also shell out a bit more for the HTML and the bandwidth. HTML5 will win this battle.
DannoHung 17y ago
In 1996, the year that it was introduced, the Motorola StarTac cost $1000. How much would you pay for one today? In 2007, the year that it was introduced, the iPhone 8GB cost $600 with a carrier subsidy. How much would you pay for one today? Well, I don't know how much you would pay for one, but a more advanced model costs $99 with a carrier subsidy. I don't think it is safe to say how the next 4 billion people are going to get online and what technology they will have access to.
- dejb 17y ago
  > but a more advanced model costs $99 with a carrier subsidy. It isn't sensible to talk about 'costs with carrier subsidy'. You might as well describe the cost of a rented apartment as the deposit.

by borism 17y ago

Tichy 17y ago

If you are illiterate, SMS and WAP won't do much good either. But you can pay the micro-entrepreneur to read stuff for you, maybe. Also, a netbook surfing via GSM might still be better than nothing. My first modem (1993) was probably slower than GSM, but I still used the internet a lot. YouTube was not around yet. Apparently they do have electricity, because that would be needed for the phones, too. Especially the Nokia ones that need daily recharging.

InclinedPlane 17y ago

I think you've missed my point. It's silly to imagine that the rest of the world will start buying smart phones yet they will remain without electricity, broadband, literacy, etc. The numerous examples we have from history indicate this won't be the case. People value electricity, and sanitation, and literacy, and all the other things that are valued in first world economies. If people can perform work that pays enough for them to buy smart phones, then they will surely work to buy all those other things as well. The image of some 3rd worlder sitting in a corrugated aluminum lean-to amidst filth and poverty while spending all their hard earned money on iPhone apps is fantasy. The 3rd world will get to work, they will make money, and slowly but surely they'll build infrastructure and acquire wealth and be just as wealthy as the 1st world. Taiwan did it. South Korea did it. Many countries in South America and Eastern Europe are doing it right now. Back to the main point. In 5 years the "highest range" iphone-android phones will be obsolete. Phones of that class, the class that can browse the ajax/css web, will be so cheap they will be considered entry level phones. In 10 years iphone equivalent phones will be sold in blister packs with prepaid phone planes in convenience stores. In short, the premise of this article is economically, culturally, and technologically naive in the extreme. It should not be taken seriously.

nwatson 17y ago
You say a third-worlder in a lean-to shack might not spend their hard-earned money on iPhone apps. I lived in Rio de Janeiro in the early seventies as a small kid. My parents were missionaries and we'd visit very poor areas of town often, and some times we'd go to the famous "favelas" (slums) where people live in improvised lean-to-shack housing. People in the favelas didn't have much, but almost every corrugated-metal/wood/cardboard shack had a TV antenna. These days people might not spend the money on the apps but they'll spend it on an iPhone or a smart-phone. They'll find a cheap way to get the apps they really need. In Brazil people love technology, especially when it helps them connect with others. I don't think it's much different in other third-world places.

nwatson 17y ago

Smartphones will become cheaper, more powerful, more rugged, and third-world customers will opt for them because they can't afford the PC yet want access to the wonderful things they can do on the web. Data plans will be ubiquitous even in poor areas, services will spring up where people can plug in every day for a small fee where there is no electricity, and people will learn to read when there's a reason to. They'll also shell out a bit more for the HTML and the bandwidth. HTML5 will win this battle.

DannoHung 17y ago

In 1996, the year that it was introduced, the Motorola StarTac cost $1000. How much would you pay for one today? In 2007, the year that it was introduced, the iPhone 8GB cost $600 with a carrier subsidy. How much would you pay for one today? Well, I don't know how much you would pay for one, but a more advanced model costs $99 with a carrier subsidy. I don't think it is safe to say how the next 4 billion people are going to get online and what technology they will have access to.

dejb 17y ago
> but a more advanced model costs $99 with a carrier subsidy. It isn't sensible to talk about 'costs with carrier subsidy'. You might as well describe the cost of a rented apartment as the deposit.