5 ms·

Why It Took 23 Yrs to Link Amelia Earhart’s Disappearance to This Scrap of Metal

58 points by mocy 12y ago

johnlbevan2 12y ago
(Qualifier: I know very little about planes or the background of this case) If the part found was a last minute patch, I'd guess that the patch wasn't properly attached, so came off in flight; then the plane crashed as a result of losing the patch. Otherwise, what are the chances of that being the only piece found...
- exDM69 12y ago
  That's the first thought that springs to mind, but not necessarily the case. Aircraft from that era were quite solid and they did not have a pressurized hull. The Lockheed Electra and other similar aircraft from the same era flew in wartime operations and regularly came back full of holes. A single window broken cover should not bring an otherwise sound 1930s era aircraft down.
  - snowballsteve 12y ago
    Exactly correct. There is no way a missing window would bring down the plane, especially the back window, unless by some freak accident the patch damaged a control surface on the tail by breaking free. One can think of an almost limitless list of more likely hypotheses.
    - davvolun 12y ago
      To be completely fair, a list such as insulating foam peeling off and striking the wing (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Shuttle_Columbia#Final_mission_and_destruction http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Shuttle_Columbia#Final_mi...) or a random bird striking a plane and causing a failure (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bird_strike#Incidents http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bird_strike#Incidents)? I'm not saying it happened, or even that it's likely, I'm saying stranger things have happened.
- joshdance 12y ago
  Planes could take a lot of beating and still fly. Grandfather flew a bomber in World War 2 and planes would come back with hundreds of holes. Losing a patch should not have brought down the plane. A modern airline, yes, it could have a much bigger effect. Pressurized hulls, electronic flight systems etc are more fragile.
  - Shivetya 12y ago
    reminds of a HN favorite story, about how the study of bombers links up with work done today http://www.fastcodesign.com/1671172/how-a-story-from-world-war-ii-shapes-facebook-today http://www.fastcodesign.com/1671172/how-a-story-from-world-w...
- 51Cards 12y ago
  Regarding this being the only piece found... if they needed to get parts off the plane for use as tools, this patch would be a good target piece of metal to go for prying free. I still feel the odds are pretty slim but they make an interesting (if sketchy) case. Hopefully something more concrete will come up in future.
goodcanadian 12y ago
It is funny that he is pretending to have only realized what this patch "is" as there were claims from TIGHAR several years ago that this piece of metal could be that patch. As I commented on another article, yesterday, I am highly skeptical of any of their claims as they seem to draw highly fanciful conclusions from very little evidence.
- Shivetya 12y ago
  We only have to wait to see if they do discover anything next year. There are only so many times you can cry wolf.
- jesserwilliams 12y ago
  I agree there is a high amount of speculation in this article, and he's not the first person to suggest that this item is the patch from her aircraft. (http://www.foxnews.com/science/2013/06/27/photos-could-prove-amelia-earhart-lived-as-castaway/ http://www.foxnews.com/science/2013/06/27/photos-could-prove...) Either way, I'm curious if they will find anything with an ROV. Coral reefs in the middle of the ocean don't provide the necessary protection to preserve an artifact like her aircraft. Which would explain why a single piece was found washed up on an island.
- pyrophane 12y ago
  My first thought in seeing this headline was to think "no these guys again." They do this every few years. They trot out some new piece of "evidence" in an attempt to drum up money for yet another expedition to the Nikumaroro island. Never mind that they've already been there 10 times and have failed to come up with anything credible. It is also worth noting that the island in question has been periodically inhabited for much of the century prior to TIGHAR beginning its investigation, so the discovery of numerous artifacts is unsurprising, but it hasn't stopped them from trying to link everything they find to Earhart. What's more, the records of radio communication with the aircraft don't support the notion that they would have landed so far off course.
- curtis 12y ago
  The thing that's changed recently is the theory about which part of the airplane the patch might have been applied to. From http://tighar.org/wiki/2-2-V-1 http://tighar.org/wiki/2-2-V-1 (http://tighar.org/aw/mediawiki/index.php?title=2-2-V-1&oldid=7737 http://tighar.org/aw/mediawiki/index.php?title=2-2-V-1&oldid... if the wiki page gets edited): > "All aspects of the artifact, including the rivet pattern, fit closely with a section of the belly on the right hand side of the aircraft between stations 269 5/8ths and 293 5/8ths..." My recollection is that they ultimately decided that the patch did not match the section of the belly described in the quote. It's only been in the last couple of months that they started thinking that the patch might have been one that covered the window.
amjaeger 12y ago
Clearly after becoming a castaway Earhart learned to fight and became a ninja. She managed to get of the Island, and when she returned she became a bad-ass vigilante. She didn't tell anyone she came back because that would have made it more likely that her secret identity would be discovered.
- deleted 12y ago
  [deleted]
jmount 12y ago
Is there even a legit/documented chain of custody on the metal patch?
dang 12y ago
https://hn.algolia.com/?q=amelia+earhart+metal#!/story/sort_by_date/0/amelia%20earhart https://hn.algolia.com/?q=amelia+earhart+metal#!/story/sort_...

58 points by mocy 12y ago

(Qualifier: I know very little about planes or the background of this case) If the part found was a last minute patch, I'd guess that the patch wasn't properly attached, so came off in flight; then the plane crashed as a result of losing the patch. Otherwise, what are the chances of that being the only piece found...

exDM69 12y ago
That's the first thought that springs to mind, but not necessarily the case. Aircraft from that era were quite solid and they did not have a pressurized hull. The Lockheed Electra and other similar aircraft from the same era flew in wartime operations and regularly came back full of holes. A single window broken cover should not bring an otherwise sound 1930s era aircraft down.
- snowballsteve 12y ago
  Exactly correct. There is no way a missing window would bring down the plane, especially the back window, unless by some freak accident the patch damaged a control surface on the tail by breaking free. One can think of an almost limitless list of more likely hypotheses.
  - davvolun 12y ago
    To be completely fair, a list such as insulating foam peeling off and striking the wing (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Shuttle_Columbia#Final_mission_and_destruction http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Shuttle_Columbia#Final_mi...) or a random bird striking a plane and causing a failure (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bird_strike#Incidents http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bird_strike#Incidents)? I'm not saying it happened, or even that it's likely, I'm saying stranger things have happened.
joshdance 12y ago
Planes could take a lot of beating and still fly. Grandfather flew a bomber in World War 2 and planes would come back with hundreds of holes. Losing a patch should not have brought down the plane. A modern airline, yes, it could have a much bigger effect. Pressurized hulls, electronic flight systems etc are more fragile.
- Shivetya 12y ago
  reminds of a HN favorite story, about how the study of bombers links up with work done today http://www.fastcodesign.com/1671172/how-a-story-from-world-war-ii-shapes-facebook-today http://www.fastcodesign.com/1671172/how-a-story-from-world-w...
51Cards 12y ago
Regarding this being the only piece found... if they needed to get parts off the plane for use as tools, this patch would be a good target piece of metal to go for prying free. I still feel the odds are pretty slim but they make an interesting (if sketchy) case. Hopefully something more concrete will come up in future.

goodcanadian 12y ago

It is funny that he is pretending to have only realized what this patch "is" as there were claims from TIGHAR several years ago that this piece of metal could be that patch. As I commented on another article, yesterday, I am highly skeptical of any of their claims as they seem to draw highly fanciful conclusions from very little evidence.

Shivetya 12y ago
We only have to wait to see if they do discover anything next year. There are only so many times you can cry wolf.
jesserwilliams 12y ago
I agree there is a high amount of speculation in this article, and he's not the first person to suggest that this item is the patch from her aircraft. (http://www.foxnews.com/science/2013/06/27/photos-could-prove-amelia-earhart-lived-as-castaway/ http://www.foxnews.com/science/2013/06/27/photos-could-prove...) Either way, I'm curious if they will find anything with an ROV. Coral reefs in the middle of the ocean don't provide the necessary protection to preserve an artifact like her aircraft. Which would explain why a single piece was found washed up on an island.
pyrophane 12y ago
My first thought in seeing this headline was to think "no these guys again." They do this every few years. They trot out some new piece of "evidence" in an attempt to drum up money for yet another expedition to the Nikumaroro island. Never mind that they've already been there 10 times and have failed to come up with anything credible. It is also worth noting that the island in question has been periodically inhabited for much of the century prior to TIGHAR beginning its investigation, so the discovery of numerous artifacts is unsurprising, but it hasn't stopped them from trying to link everything they find to Earhart. What's more, the records of radio communication with the aircraft don't support the notion that they would have landed so far off course.
curtis 12y ago
The thing that's changed recently is the theory about which part of the airplane the patch might have been applied to. From http://tighar.org/wiki/2-2-V-1 http://tighar.org/wiki/2-2-V-1 (http://tighar.org/aw/mediawiki/index.php?title=2-2-V-1&oldid=7737 http://tighar.org/aw/mediawiki/index.php?title=2-2-V-1&oldid... if the wiki page gets edited): > "All aspects of the artifact, including the rivet pattern, fit closely with a section of the belly on the right hand side of the aircraft between stations 269 5/8ths and 293 5/8ths..." My recollection is that they ultimately decided that the patch did not match the section of the belly described in the quote. It's only been in the last couple of months that they started thinking that the patch might have been one that covered the window.

amjaeger 12y ago

Clearly after becoming a castaway Earhart learned to fight and became a ninja. She managed to get of the Island, and when she returned she became a bad-ass vigilante. She didn't tell anyone she came back because that would have made it more likely that her secret identity would be discovered.

deleted 12y ago
[deleted]

jmount 12y ago

Is there even a legit/documented chain of custody on the metal patch?

dang 12y ago

https://hn.algolia.com/?q=amelia+earhart+metal#!/story/sort_by_date/0/amelia%20earhart https://hn.algolia.com/?q=amelia+earhart+metal#!/story/sort_...