5 ms·
The way I look at it, high rates of inflation incentivize debt. If I can borrow at %4 a year (much more than the federal reserve charges, for instance) and the
by MCRed 12y ago
The way I look at it, high rates of inflation incentivize debt. If I can borrow at %4 a year (much more than the federal reserve charges, for instance) and then deploy that money productively, I can use the proceeds to pay down the debt with much cheaper money.
So, if I thought the rate of return made sense, I could borrow dollars on my credit card, buy Apple, Google or Facebook stock, and then pay back the loan on the dividends or returns from the stocks appreciation. This isn't even necessarily irresponsible if, say, you bought Berkshire Hathaway, which has historically returned >%20. If it continues to do so, even a credit card rate of %13 will give you a %7 spread.
This is a simple example of leverage and is effectively the same as trading stock on margin.
But, I'm sure everyone reading this realizes the danger- Buffet may die, BRK might flatten, any of those tech companies might not return what I expect.
That's the risk of leverage.
So, in short, inflation incentivizes the risk of leverage.
And that's exactly what we saw in the housing bubble where people with $60k in income were buying 4-5 $120k condos hoping to flip them in a few years.
- msandford 12y agoYeah, leverage is probably one of the best/worst concepts to ever happen. It's why an airline goes bankrupt every few years, and the primary reason why banking crises happen. But leverage is also the thing that allows me to buy a house or a car on credit rather than outright with cash. Leverage is kind-of like guns. I want me to have it because I'm responsible and can handle it appropriately. But I'm not sure that anyone else should be allowed to have it. (I'm personally for arming people more rather than less, but it seems like it'll hit home for a lot of folks)
- wbl 12y agoAnd what was inflation over that time period? Answer: less than 5%, with the target of 2% getting meet a great deal of the time.