I think about this a lot, part of my job is designing mobile apps for Ubuntu touch that scale to tablet, desktop, TV using the same code base (but different lay

I think about this a lot, part of my job is designing mobile apps for Ubuntu touch that scale to tablet, desktop, TV using the same code base (but different layouts). We are working towards convergence and the native Qt/QML apps we build for mobile can already run on Ubuntu desktop. I know other desktop/mobile platforms are also working towards the convergence goal, it will be interesting how it plays out. I can see Android desktop apps not being too far away, for instance. 5 years goes past pretty quick, if I think of desktop or web apps 5 years ago not that much has changed. I have a lot of faith in browser engines continuing to make a great progress, and web as a platform has more developers and momentum than anything else so I expect to see a lot of interesting things coming out as web based SaaS software. If I think of some of the more complex desktop apps I use (things like Photoshop, After Effects, 3DS Max, Logic Pro, Davinci Resolve) I don't think those will be replaced in 5 years by apps running solely on web technologies. I think something like Qt offers a better fit for these types of apps if cross-platform is a goal. Having said that, apps of that complexity are a small fraction of what people actually use - as web closes in on the quality of user experience of native apps I think more and more traditional desktop and mobile apps will be built with web technologies. And there will probably be some curve balls in terms of how people interact with computing devices like IoT devices and Oculus Rift/Magic Leap type wearables with completely new interfaces.