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Poland is going to be a very interesting country to watch over the next 10-20 years. It has one of the fastest growing economies in Europe, a sizable population

Poland is going to be a very interesting country to watch over the next 10-20 years. It has one of the fastest growing economies in Europe, a sizable population, and geopolitically speaking, a very long memory. Tensions with Russia are going to mount in the coming decades as Poland's economy grows, and Russia's slows down. I doubt they'd come to blows, least of all in the near future. But Poland is going to gear up, just in case. A lot of this will come from Poland's desire to reduce its dependence on the US. Poland and the US have cooperated, militarily and politically, more reliably than most European countries have. But in light of recent events in Eastern Europe, the US is starting to look like a less-than-reliable backstop.

yogthos 12y ago
Why would Russian economy be slowing down exactly again, seems to be doing quite the opposite last I checked.
- jessaustin 12y ago
  Keep up with current events! http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil.aspx http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil.aspx
- jonnathanson 12y ago
  The vast majority of Russia's economic growth is coming from oil and gas reserves, especially the latter. That's a notoriously shaky ground on which to build an economic expansion as rapid as Russia's has been in the last few years. Extremely volatile over the long run. It doesn't help that most of that wealth is being captured by a handful of government-sanctioned plutocrats, and by government officials themselves (Putin most especially; he is rumored to have a personal net worth in excess of $70 billion). A very small proportion is actually being reinvested into productive and petrochemical-diverse industry. To make matters worse, the country suffers from some major demography issues. Its birthrate is problematic, and its population is old. It is one of the few major industrialized nations whose population is expected to contract significantly over the next century. There is very little stability underpinning Russia's economy. It's wobbly, as is, right now. It'll be wobblier still over the next 10-20 years.
- ajuc 12y ago
  Russian GPD growth is oil price proxy :)
jn1234 12y ago
>But in light of recent events in Eastern Europe, the US is starting to look like a less-than-reliable backstop. I think that Poland is somewhat satisfied with the response the US had at least in Poland and other NATO allies, which was stationing more troops there. The US is tied in how far it will be willing to go to countries outside of its NATO commitments. Ukraine wasn't simply worth going to war over Russia with. I don't think that anyone doubts the US' resolve to follow through with its NATO commitments.

yogthos 12y ago

Why would Russian economy be slowing down exactly again, seems to be doing quite the opposite last I checked.

jessaustin 12y ago
Keep up with current events! http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil.aspx http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil.aspx
jonnathanson 12y ago
The vast majority of Russia's economic growth is coming from oil and gas reserves, especially the latter. That's a notoriously shaky ground on which to build an economic expansion as rapid as Russia's has been in the last few years. Extremely volatile over the long run. It doesn't help that most of that wealth is being captured by a handful of government-sanctioned plutocrats, and by government officials themselves (Putin most especially; he is rumored to have a personal net worth in excess of $70 billion). A very small proportion is actually being reinvested into productive and petrochemical-diverse industry. To make matters worse, the country suffers from some major demography issues. Its birthrate is problematic, and its population is old. It is one of the few major industrialized nations whose population is expected to contract significantly over the next century. There is very little stability underpinning Russia's economy. It's wobbly, as is, right now. It'll be wobblier still over the next 10-20 years.
ajuc 12y ago
Russian GPD growth is oil price proxy :)

jn1234 12y ago

>But in light of recent events in Eastern Europe, the US is starting to look like a less-than-reliable backstop. I think that Poland is somewhat satisfied with the response the US had at least in Poland and other NATO allies, which was stationing more troops there. The US is tied in how far it will be willing to go to countries outside of its NATO commitments. Ukraine wasn't simply worth going to war over Russia with. I don't think that anyone doubts the US' resolve to follow through with its NATO commitments.