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You can't just take the GDP growth on its own and say: "this number is fairly high compared to other countries". Yes it is, but china needs to maintain a ridicu
by sleeping_pills 12y ago
You can't just take the GDP growth on its own and say: "this number is fairly high compared to other countries". Yes it is, but china needs to maintain a ridiculous growth rate to pay for the costs and upkeep of its economic machinery. The GDP figure is propped up by vast amounts of investments that are financed by debt taken out on the basis that future growth will pay for it. Do you see the problem? Does it remind you of anything? Yes, it is exactly what the West is/has been doing.
China is doing the western policy of growth fuelled by debt. Betting on China is tantamount to betting on unfettered money printing shrouded in a veil of corruption and secrecy. Debt financed by production that is consumed by the west. A bet on China is a bet on the US. Let's not forget the massive exposure to western debt and assets. It's as simple as that.
To make things a touch more spicy, China also has an opaque shadow banking system that was tiptoeing around a meltdown just last year.
China is not doing anything clever, they are just really adept at kicking the can down the road.
The future of China is only as bright as the future of US is I'm afraid. To think that China can somehow survive if the western countries collapse or dwindle away is folly. There are no independent players. A deleveraging that is big enough to dismantle Europe or the US will most likely cause a global collapse. It's impossible to predict what will happen if that hits China. How strong is the central government? To what end are they willing to go to preserve their hold on power? Tianamnen Square 2020?
The "invest in China for ridiculous returns" ship has sailed long ago. If anything, I'd be looking at taking profit and hedging all remaining exposure to China with urgency.