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Reporting that relates this directly to economics reads like a musing on some esoteric philosophy. It's economists' own fault, presenting their profession as a
by netcan 12y ago
Reporting that relates this directly to economics reads like a musing on some esoteric philosophy. It's economists' own fault, presenting their profession as a collection of mathematical models, the science of politics and history. Saying things like 'boost efficiency and competitiveness' sounds like a conversational reference to variables in an equation.
The driving force behind economic growth over a measurable period of time (not quarters, or even years) is technology, in a wider sense of the word. Companies are an invention. Political structures and the stability or instability they cause is invention. Money itself was invented.
China was economically suppressed for a long time. When they found their formula for industrialization they had a lot of catching up to do. Planting techniques that increased yield. Manufacturing techniques producing more. They spent 2 generations catching up. Catching up is a matter of applying existing technologies. When they created the weaving room of the world, industrial strength looms had existed for a long time.
The reality is the growth at that end of the spectrum is fast. Growth nearer the recent invention end is slower, because invention and proliferation of technologies are intertwined. That's the main story here. China is approaching the point where they economic growth depends on technological advancement. Things need inventing. That's slower.
Looking at this at the resolution of months, it seems that central bank policies are the engine of advancement. Financing, consumer appetites.. This is nonsense. Imagine the output of a country like Germany doubling or tripling of more over generations. That's what x% annual growth means. They will need to learn to make more with the same number of people. That can only happen because of technology.
So, that's the default prediction. China's long term economic growth rate will slow to the rate of technological advancement, mitigated in the short term by politicized maneuvering. They are increasingly contributing to technology though so maybe they can move the world's output by a couple of ticks.