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Good article and observations. One thing to think about though from the scale of China is that it still a pretty locked down market still. It has opened up imm
by drawkbox 12y ago
Good article and observations. One thing to think about though from the scale of China is that it still a pretty locked down market still. It has opened up immensely and Hong Kong is always mentioned here. But they still oversee and control many areas of their economy.
Strict control of a market can lead to one of two things: 1) falsifying growth that isn't true market value demand or 2) growth being repressed by policy.
China could be possibly extending into their 36th year of high growth with either of those. If the former it will end badly, if the latter, once they really open up, they could exponentially still grow intensely. They are still owed lots of money in debt and that it what helped spike the US after WWII, other countries battered and in debt. Lots of riches will flow to China for some time.
Another small point is China isn't as innovative yet as places like Japan or South Korea. If they did innovate like that it could also get wild, but mostly it is a copy economy as of now.