3 ms·
I've always found the idea of diversification as a rule, or for its own sake to be troubling. Say you have 100k. You could put it all in Apple, or put 99k in
by MCRed 12y ago
I've always found the idea of diversification as a rule, or for its own sake to be troubling.
Say you have 100k. You could put it all in Apple, or put 99k in Apple and then buy puts to protect against a sudden decline in Apple with the remaining 1k. (might cost more, not sure.)
Or you could split it up into 6 companies. Are any of the other 5 going to be as high quality as apple?
I think diversification comes from the belief that you can't pick stocks so you might as well pick several and hope they work out on average.
I think that this is not so much the case when you spend a bit of time investigating. I've not found it to be the case, at least. (What I can't do is pick timing, but I can pick stocks, pretty reliably for 20 years or so.)
Right now Apple is at $100ish, and a Jan 2016 $90 put would cost $8ish.
This means that the most you could lose in that time period is %18 of your money... and that's assuming the company completely craters.... if it just drops to $90 because they multiply the dividend by a lot, you don't really care.
If, however, a nuke hits cupertino, you're covered.
I like that a lot better than guessing what Tesla will be at in the future. (I think Tesla is a good company, for instance, but the risk is orders of magnitude higher.)
- discardorama 12y ago> I've always found the idea of diversification as a rule, or for its own sake to be troubling. I agree with you in general, but sometimes you get bit there too. Back in 2007, I felt that the US economy was in trouble. So I thought I'd be smart and went the full diversification route in my Fidelity retirement portfolio: split it among market funds for different economies around the world. Eastern Europe seemed to be poised for growth, so some $$ there; China was ticking up, so that got some; same for Latin America, Canada and Asia. But then guess what happened? US got jolted and recovered. But my diversified funds? Most of them are still below what I bought them for in 2007. Especially that f*cker "Mathews China Fund" ($MCHFX). FML.
- PKop 12y agoWarren Buffet has similar advice with regards to diversification https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-PobeU4Ox0#t=66 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-PobeU4Ox0#t=66