You can't identify Black Swans; you can just assume that a lot of assets are priced as if they don't exist. So you could do what he was doing as of a year or tw

You can't identify Black Swans; you can just assume that a lot of assets are priced as if they don't exist. So you could do what he was doing as of a year or two ago, and bet that oil will go to $10. Or $400. These are cheap bets, and he doesn't expect them to pay off -- but if he also bets that housing will double again or drop 20%, and that treasuries will yield 1% or 20%, and that a third party candidate will be elected to the US presidency, and that the US will experience net emmigration within ten years, and that global temperatures will decline over the next fifty... make enough of these very, very cheap bets, and you wind up with positive exposure to all the future events you didn't think of.