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Palmer Luckey and John Carmack are doing for VR what Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak did for PCs. They launched a new industry, one that will be bigger than PCs ev

by staunch 12y ago

Palmer Luckey and John Carmack are doing for VR what Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak did for PCs. They launched a new industry, one that will be bigger than PCs ever were.

sillysaurus3 12y ago
... and then surrendered it to Facebook. Which means they aren't really like Jobs or Woz, except in a technical capacity. I have nothing against Facebook. But would you have respected Zuck as much if he'd sold Facebook to Yahoo? Either way, Facebook controls the industry now, and there are few industries that have grown to their full potential under the stewardship of a company that acquired the primary creator. Take automobiles, for example. Ford started his own company. He didn't start his own company and then sell it. Automobiles would certainly have done well even if he had, since transportation is a fundamental technology, but VR goggles aren't. How long will their development be delayed because Oculus no longer feels the pressure of getting their company off the ground? People keep talking like "they now have the resources they need to make Oculus great," but if history is any indication, having excessive resources tends to produce excessive failure, not success. For example, companies that take huge investment rounds usually fail to deliver something of value to customers. Maybe Oculus is in the same position. After all, if they don't deliver something people want, then there's no downside anymore for Oculus. They've already been bought by Facebook. They could fail to do anything from this point forward and it would no longer matter to them (except emotionally). Breathless hero worship is a little over the top, considering the outcome. Let's wait and see what actually happens.
- billions 12y ago
  Well put. Instagraham's new thing is spamming push notifications about things you don't care about to get you back on the app. And FB seems to have kept their hands off more than others since the brands continue on. It's impressive how much an acquisition changes the seller. In software you're either building a monopoly or you're treading water. Once you're bought the monopoly dream expires and the back stabbing begins.
- staunch 12y ago
  > ... and then surrendered it to Facebook. Woz and Jobs surrendered their company too. Woz became disillusioned and Jobs got fired. They still managed to do a lot of important work during that time, including creating the PC industry. > Facebook controls the industry now... Oculus may be the leading player, but they're just one company making products. Other companies can make products too. > Automobiles would certainly have done well even if he had, since transportation is a fundamental technology, but VR goggles aren't. There's nothing fundamental about cars. There were other means of transportation. But VR is just as inevitable as cars were. When people what they could have, they'll demand it, just like they did with cars. > How long will their development be delayed because Oculus no longer feels the pressure of getting their company off the ground? John Carmack's work ethic is famous. He doesn't screw around and everyone else has to keep up with him. None of these guys is motivated by money, which means they've got a good shot. > Let's wait and see what actually happens. The VR industry is on a rocket ship trajectory and these guys launched it by shipping real products. That's already happened. Of course it's true that the hard work and fun of VR has only begun.
GuiA 12y ago
I believe so too, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. They don't even have a consumer version yet. I do think that there is a possibility here to push computer tools to their next evolutionary step, much like what the GUI did in its day, allowing entirely new classes of applications to emerge. Oculus could enable new tools that we can barely imagine today, much like Final Cut or Photoshop would have been hard to imagine in 1970. Being able to visualize simulations and other visual explanations in a way that is so close to our real world is potentially a game changer for machine assisted work. But they sold the company to a megacorp with a terribly uninteresting product, and a CEO who believes that "anyone over 30 is useless". So maybe this vision won't happen just yet, and instead we'll get social-gamified-"ready player one" VR bullcrap.
CmonDev 12y ago
The damn thing hasn't even been released yet.

by staunch 12y ago

Palmer Luckey and John Carmack are doing for VR what Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak did for PCs. They launched a new industry, one that will be bigger than PCs ever were.

sillysaurus3 12y ago

... and then surrendered it to Facebook. Which means they aren't really like Jobs or Woz, except in a technical capacity. I have nothing against Facebook. But would you have respected Zuck as much if he'd sold Facebook to Yahoo? Either way, Facebook controls the industry now, and there are few industries that have grown to their full potential under the stewardship of a company that acquired the primary creator. Take automobiles, for example. Ford started his own company. He didn't start his own company and then sell it. Automobiles would certainly have done well even if he had, since transportation is a fundamental technology, but VR goggles aren't. How long will their development be delayed because Oculus no longer feels the pressure of getting their company off the ground? People keep talking like "they now have the resources they need to make Oculus great," but if history is any indication, having excessive resources tends to produce excessive failure, not success. For example, companies that take huge investment rounds usually fail to deliver something of value to customers. Maybe Oculus is in the same position. After all, if they don't deliver something people want, then there's no downside anymore for Oculus. They've already been bought by Facebook. They could fail to do anything from this point forward and it would no longer matter to them (except emotionally). Breathless hero worship is a little over the top, considering the outcome. Let's wait and see what actually happens.

billions 12y ago
Well put. Instagraham's new thing is spamming push notifications about things you don't care about to get you back on the app. And FB seems to have kept their hands off more than others since the brands continue on. It's impressive how much an acquisition changes the seller. In software you're either building a monopoly or you're treading water. Once you're bought the monopoly dream expires and the back stabbing begins.
staunch 12y ago
> ... and then surrendered it to Facebook. Woz and Jobs surrendered their company too. Woz became disillusioned and Jobs got fired. They still managed to do a lot of important work during that time, including creating the PC industry. > Facebook controls the industry now... Oculus may be the leading player, but they're just one company making products. Other companies can make products too. > Automobiles would certainly have done well even if he had, since transportation is a fundamental technology, but VR goggles aren't. There's nothing fundamental about cars. There were other means of transportation. But VR is just as inevitable as cars were. When people what they could have, they'll demand it, just like they did with cars. > How long will their development be delayed because Oculus no longer feels the pressure of getting their company off the ground? John Carmack's work ethic is famous. He doesn't screw around and everyone else has to keep up with him. None of these guys is motivated by money, which means they've got a good shot. > Let's wait and see what actually happens. The VR industry is on a rocket ship trajectory and these guys launched it by shipping real products. That's already happened. Of course it's true that the hard work and fun of VR has only begun.

GuiA 12y ago

I believe so too, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. They don't even have a consumer version yet. I do think that there is a possibility here to push computer tools to their next evolutionary step, much like what the GUI did in its day, allowing entirely new classes of applications to emerge. Oculus could enable new tools that we can barely imagine today, much like Final Cut or Photoshop would have been hard to imagine in 1970. Being able to visualize simulations and other visual explanations in a way that is so close to our real world is potentially a game changer for machine assisted work. But they sold the company to a megacorp with a terribly uninteresting product, and a CEO who believes that "anyone over 30 is useless". So maybe this vision won't happen just yet, and instead we'll get social-gamified-"ready player one" VR bullcrap.

CmonDev 12y ago

The damn thing hasn't even been released yet.