This story is about a guy who was too optimistic about his business prospects. Fair enough; it's not good to be unrealistically optimistic. But it's (often) fa

This story is about a guy who was too optimistic about his business prospects. Fair enough; it's not good to be unrealistically optimistic. But it's (often) far worse to underestimate your chances of success than to overestimate them. The worst thing that happens if you overestimate your chances of success are that you blow some money unnecessarily chasing an opportunity that won't work. That's bad; wasting money isn't smart. But the worst thing that happens if you underestimate your chances of success are that you never seize an opportunity that could have changed your life. That's much worse. In fact, we often have a very imprecise understanding of our chances for success in a venture. Buying tens of thousands of envelopes with no understanding of how many copies of your CD you might sell is, of course, pretty dumb. But how about depleting your savings trying to get a startup off the ground? That's a more measured risk, sure, and one that might or might not pay off. For a lot of people, it changed their lives. Did some of them get through the hard days by relying on the at-best-misleading "if only 1%" doctrine? I bet so. To the extent this article is a wry observation about the innumeracy of a lot of people (treating 1% as the smallest possible chance of success), then of course, it's well taken. But people use "if only 1%" type thinking to convince themselves to take worthwhile risks, too. If you think, as I do, that we have fewer entrepreneurs than our economy might support, then query whether the real problem is too much risk-taking or too little.