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> That's why I have serious respect for anybody that makes it work more than once, those are the real entrepreneurs. For the rest it really is mostly luck. See

by jjs 17y ago

> That's why I have serious respect for anybody that makes it work more than once, those are the real entrepreneurs. For the rest it really is mostly luck. See the recent article on survivor bias: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=768297 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=768297

jacquesm 17y ago
Sure, some of the 'survivors', especially the serial entrepreneurs will be there only because of a series of instances of having luck. But not all of them. Some people really have an uncanny way of perceiving which business opportunities are good ones and which to stay away from. I think a big part of the 'mystique' that hangs around successful people directly relates to that. People hope that by adopting strategies or even mannerisms that worked before that they will somehow be able to 'copy success'. This is analogous to an alien analyzing planet earth coming to the conclusion that people get rich here by sending their clothes to the dry cleaners, hiring maids and driving fancy cars. Having a realistic goal for your business and a good plan on how to make money are not the way to 'score big', they're a way to create a business and slowly grow it to a success, this may take a decade or more, with added luck you can maybe do it faster. But the bigger portion of the 'fast company' crowd isn't looking to building a business, they're looking at the 'exit' before they've gone through the door at the entrance. This is - in my belief - also the reason why the scoring chances of people with high profile advisors are not significantly better than those without, and it is possibly why successful entrepreneurs would rather become investors than to prove themselves by starting another company and build it from the ground up. Much easier to improve your chances by spreading the money that you would put into a single corporation (all your eggs in one basket) into many smaller ones and hope you pick up a winner.

by jjs 17y ago

jacquesm 17y ago

Sure, some of the 'survivors', especially the serial entrepreneurs will be there only because of a series of instances of having luck. But not all of them. Some people really have an uncanny way of perceiving which business opportunities are good ones and which to stay away from. I think a big part of the 'mystique' that hangs around successful people directly relates to that. People hope that by adopting strategies or even mannerisms that worked before that they will somehow be able to 'copy success'. This is analogous to an alien analyzing planet earth coming to the conclusion that people get rich here by sending their clothes to the dry cleaners, hiring maids and driving fancy cars. Having a realistic goal for your business and a good plan on how to make money are not the way to 'score big', they're a way to create a business and slowly grow it to a success, this may take a decade or more, with added luck you can maybe do it faster. But the bigger portion of the 'fast company' crowd isn't looking to building a business, they're looking at the 'exit' before they've gone through the door at the entrance. This is - in my belief - also the reason why the scoring chances of people with high profile advisors are not significantly better than those without, and it is possibly why successful entrepreneurs would rather become investors than to prove themselves by starting another company and build it from the ground up. Much easier to improve your chances by spreading the money that you would put into a single corporation (all your eggs in one basket) into many smaller ones and hope you pick up a winner.