This is really, really weak sauce. They show right on the graph it following the trend line for reported cases, which looks to already be leveling off. The pro

This is really, really weak sauce. They show right on the graph it following the trend line for reported cases, which looks to already be leveling off. The problem is, as the WHO has made very, very clear: "Problems with data gathering in Liberia continue. It should be emphasized that the reported fall in the number of new cases in Liberia over the past three weeks is unlikely to be genuine. Rather, it reflects a deterioration in the ability of overwhelmed responders to record accurate epidemiological data. It is clear from field reports and first responders that EVD cases are being under-reported from several key locations, and laboratory data that have not yet been integrated into official estimates indicate an increase in the number of new cases in Liberia. There is no evidence that the EVD epidemic in West Africa is being brought under control ... Evidence obtained from responders and laboratory staff in [Liberia] indicates beyond doubt that there is widespread under-reporting of new cases, and that the situation in Liberia, and in Monrovia in particular, continues to deteriorate from week to week. Approximately 200 new probable and suspected cases, but very few confirmed cases, have been reported in the capital Monrovia in each of the past three weeks. A substantial proportion of these suspected cases are most probably genuine cases of EVD, and the reported fall in confirmed cases over the past three weeks reflects delays in matching laboratory results with clinical surveillance data. Efforts continue to urgently address problems with data acquisition in what is an extremely challenging environment, and it is likely that the figures will be revised upwards in due course." In other words, awesome job building a model that fits garbage data.