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I believe there's a fine line between doctors advising and deciding. So I was probably far too absolute in my previous comment. There's a reason that second opi
by yzzxy 12y ago
I believe there's a fine line between doctors advising and deciding. So I was probably far too absolute in my previous comment. There's a reason that second opinions exist, for instance. However, I still lean towards ignoring this statistic as a patient.
Looking up a NNT number does not make you better than a doctor at a holistic evaluation of your own case. I would hazard to guess it will lead to a poor decision pretty often.
Why? Let's assume everybody follows NNT statistics with generally similar cutoff points. Patients generally don't have access to a lot of other empirical evidence on a given drug, because most metrics are meaningless to a person not trained in medicine. Any metric a lay person can understand will probably apply to one patient in the same way it applies to everyone else, because it will almost surely relate to results rather than the underlying medical processes.
As a result, every lay person with a given condition will make (roughly) the same decision about a given drug. This essentially throws out all of the other factors involved in the case and all of the doctor's expertise. I would be amazed if this resulted in an improvement to general treatment results.
I should note, I am neither a doctor nor an aspiring medical professional. Someone from that world could probably give a great perspective on whether my basic reasoning here is sound.
- learc83 12y agoThe problem is plenty of Doctors don't understand statistics. Do I really need this diagnostic test? What's the prior probability I have the disease being checked for? What's the probability that the test will harm me. If I do have the disease, by how much will the test improve the likelihood of a good outcome. Most doctors can't do the math even if they have the answers to all of the questions. There are scores of things a doctor can do that I can't, look at an x-ray and tell me my bone is broken, listen to my breathing and tell me that I have bronchitis. However, I can almost guarantee that I know more about statistics and how to interpret them than your average primary care physician [1]. I want the doctor to tell me everything he knows, do some research on my own, and make an informed decision--taking the doctors advice into consideration. I have to live with the consequences, not the doctor. [1] http://www.jgme.org/doi/pdf/10.4300/JGME-D-12-00161.1 http://www.jgme.org/doi/pdf/10.4300/JGME-D-12-00161.1
- yzzxy 12y agoThis is true, but you are almost surely more informed on statistics than the general population. You don't figure into a statistical system to "transform medicine," because you are an outlier.