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As others have pointed out, Ebola lacks a large number of important features that rhinoviruses, for example, have. It is possible given sufficient time Ebola wi
by tjradcliffe 12y ago
As others have pointed out, Ebola lacks a large number of important features that rhinoviruses, for example, have. It is possible given sufficient time Ebola will mutate in ways that generate those features. It is also possible, given sufficient time, Ebola will mutate into flesh-eating flying monkeys (admittedly, this is marginally less likely than becoming airborne.)
Viruses--parasite and pathogens generally-are incredibly narrowly adapted to their preferred mode of attack. They have to be, because the chinks in the host's immune system are almost by definition incredibly narrow. If they weren't the host species would not have survived.
This gives pathogens and parasites very little room to maneuver. They can't just arbitrarily bolt on new capabilities. They have relatively little genetic material to work with: 19 kilobases in the case of Ebola, which is less than the coding length of the majority of human genes (which can run comfortably into the hundreds of kilobases).
So think of Ebola like an evil eight-bit micro-controller. It's only got 256 bytes to work with. It has been carefully programmed with a tiny attack program that depends on a very specific weakness in the target system that requires it be plugged into a USB port controlled by a particular chipset rev from a particular manufacturer. The claim "it might go airborne" is equivalent to the claim that such a chip, under millions of random mutations, might be able to infect systems via network ports while remaining the same in every other respect.
This is not (provably) impossible, but it is of such low probability that I'm pretty sure anyone concerned about it should be in a state of panic regarding cows, coconuts, coronal mass ejections, and other far-more-probable causes of death if they want to make any claims to intellectual consistency.