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This is a tough business to win as a player. The house is taking 8 - 10% rake meaning you have to have a 60% winning percentage just to break even. Much bette

by nissimk 12y ago

This is a tough business to win as a player. The house is taking 8 - 10% rake meaning you have to have a 60% winning percentage just to break even. Much better business to be the house. Even if 30% of the players are highly skilled handicappers it's going to be very hard to consistently win this game. Sounds like fun to play, but as in all gambling enterprises, the real money comes from operating the casino, not playing there. When I heard the fan duel ads on the radio and then saw it on ESPN, I couldn't believe that it was legal. Then I saw the law with the exception for fantasy sports and I was just super jealous of these legal sports book operators. Running an online sports book is like having a free money machine.

downandout 12y ago
The rake is definitely unsustainable. Currently, its negative effects are masked by an influx of new players (Fanduel is growing roughly 300% per year [1]). But when that growth slows, the only people left to be ground into dust by the rake will be the longer-term player pool that once feasted on new players. One by one, they will lose their entire bankrolls, until the whole model collapses. They will eventually lower it, but it will almost certainly be too late by then. [1] http://fanduel.com/investors http://fanduel.com/investors
kylebrown 12y ago
> The house is taking 8 - 10% rake meaning you have to have a 60% winning percentage just to break even. That's only correct in a constant sized market. In a growing market with lots of new money coming in, its much easier to win. When growth stops, it becomes much more difficult. The vast majority of remaining players start losing, only the house (and maybe a couple sharks) can win consistently. Assuming a market in continual decline, eventually everyone loses (except the house). Nate Silver devotes a chapter to this in The Signal and the Noise. He goes through the numbers, anecdotally supported by his experience during the online poker boom.

by nissimk 12y ago

downandout 12y ago

The rake is definitely unsustainable. Currently, its negative effects are masked by an influx of new players (Fanduel is growing roughly 300% per year [1]). But when that growth slows, the only people left to be ground into dust by the rake will be the longer-term player pool that once feasted on new players. One by one, they will lose their entire bankrolls, until the whole model collapses. They will eventually lower it, but it will almost certainly be too late by then. [1] http://fanduel.com/investors http://fanduel.com/investors

kylebrown 12y ago

> The house is taking 8 - 10% rake meaning you have to have a 60% winning percentage just to break even. That's only correct in a constant sized market. In a growing market with lots of new money coming in, its much easier to win. When growth stops, it becomes much more difficult. The vast majority of remaining players start losing, only the house (and maybe a couple sharks) can win consistently. Assuming a market in continual decline, eventually everyone loses (except the house). Nate Silver devotes a chapter to this in The Signal and the Noise. He goes through the numbers, anecdotally supported by his experience during the online poker boom.