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I seriously like the numbers he's giving. He actually outright states what the theoretical max of certain technologies are, like if wind turbines covered the wh
by electromagnetic 17y ago
I seriously like the numbers he's giving. He actually outright states what the theoretical max of certain technologies are, like if wind turbines covered the whole of the UK we would only extract 200kWh/d per person (which would involve the levelling of every city to blanket cover the country), and his estimate for the UK is 195kWh/d per person of usage.
Even his best-case production estimate (which would basically turn the UK into an importer of everything as 75% of our arable land would be producing biofuels) he states we would only likely get 180kWh/d/p and that's assuming the technologies don't conflict (like having 10sqM of PV and 10sqM of solar heaters on our roofs per person - so 80sqM of roof usage in a 4 person house - would be feasible, especially considering the amount of people in high rises). The actual estimates though, from the Institute of Electrical Engineers and a half-dozen others, puts the estimate at ~18kWh/d/p of renewable production, compared to our 180kWh/d/p of consumption. Big gap.
Basically our option if we want to cut carbon emissions as much as possible is to go nuclear. The US has a consumption of 270kWh/d/p and Canada has a consumption of 350kWh/d/p (due to heating use, in some places basically 8 months out of the year). Both the US and Canada are benefited by being the 3/4th largest country and the 2nd largest country, respectively, which might make us capable of going green without nuclear, especially Canada.
However the infrastructure costs, employment costs and everything else will be astronomical. Simply put the US cent/kWh cost for electricity generation speaks worlds, in the UK it costs roughly 4 cents/kWh for nuclear, 7 cents/kWh for onshore wind, and 11 cent/kWh for offshore wind. In Europe those costs can jump to 15-20 cents/kWh for onshore and offshore respectively while nuclear jumps only to 7 cents/kWh.
The usage of natural uranium in reactors and the reprocessing of fuel (MOX) can significantly cut down on costs, especially considering that ~$300,000 of palladium can be recovered from 1 ton of spent fuel during reprocessing. The MOX can then make a second cycle, bringing up the palladium content per kilo of fuel purchased. Palladium reprocessed from spent fuel is actually less radioactive than a granite counter top, and due to its emission type and half-life (6.5 million years) it eventually decays into silver.
- khafra 17y agoPerhaps "like" is too strong a word, but it's rather bracing to get an idea of how long high-energy civilization can last; barring some miracle like practical, cheap fusion power appearing in the next decade. If I were to make a comparison to a work of fiction, it wouldn't be to Mad Max or The Day After Tomorrow; but to The Cold Equations, by Tom Godwin.
- electromagnetic 17y agoNuclear can prolong us for a long time, uranium would basically be a stop gap to full on conversion to thorium reactors, as it's 3 times more abundant than uranium, but 550 times more abundant than U-235. Basically nuclear would only be a stopgap to Fusion. Once fusion becomes available, you can begin replacing fission with fusion. Existing nuclear power plants have so much land reserved around them as a buffer zone that entire fusion plants can be built on them without the requirement of any new land as the old nuclear plants are decommissioned. The ITER project currently puts the first commercial fusion plant in 2050, however that's based on current funding and research. As fusion increasingly becomes our only alternative I have a feeling the funding will begin going through the roof. I still wouldn't bet on anything closer than 2035 though.
- mnemonicsloth 17y ago1. ITER (and NIF) may turn out to be irrelevant: http://www.technologyreview.com/business/23102/ http://www.technologyreview.com/business/23102/ 2. It's been a while, but IIRC we're looking at at least 50 more years of U-235 and maybe two centuries of plutonium and thorium (lowballing). I have a hard time believing that there won't be even one revolutionary breakthrough in how we use or generate energy in the next 150-250 years.