5 ms·

Fires break out often. We have plenty of experience in how to handle it, and the likely variations. They also take place in relatively small areas, where it's

by dalke 12y ago

Fires break out often. We have plenty of experience in how to handle it, and the likely variations. They also take place in relatively small areas, where it's possible to stagger the training. It's very hard to practice large-scale events where we don't know the details of how to handle it. A disease transmitted by animals or insects is different than water born is different than through bodily contact, etc. We have quarantine laws in place, btw. See http://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/specificlawsregulations.html http://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/specificlawsregulations.html . They haven't been used since the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918-1919. How often do we need to train in order that everyone has an idea of what to do? Once a year? Once a decade? Without experience giving feedback, how do you judge if it's often enough? In any case we know that hurricanes come to the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, and we know that people are supposed to keep emergency supplies. Every year there's available training, reminders on grocery bags, mentions in the news shows, etc. We also know that they don't - one need only look at how quickly certain things like batteries are sold out. If people don't plan for once-every-few-years events, they aren't likely to plan for once-every-century events.

lifeisstillgood 12y ago
The hurricane comparison is a good one - but presumably some of the people who did buy batteries did so because they saw the warning on the shopping bag - and would not if the bag was blank. I am pretty sure the lessons of crowd behaviour is that the difference between mass riots and calm management is to be measured at the margin. So almost any drills that can prevent a nation breakin down have a lot of value, which is my not very hidden agenda here. I am also fairly sure that fire drills seem not to evolve with time and experience, makng it hard to believe that just because we cannot measure how effective a drill is in staging off national disaster - the essence has not changed in twenty years by my memory. Despite a down thread comment it seems that preparedness is considered a good thing in itself by fire services.
- dalke 12y ago
  Eh, I can't find pictures of the bags I remember from when I lived in Florida. It's the regular brown paper bags. They would have a suggested shopping list on the side, to help plan before a hurricane comes. They would also have a hurricane tracking map. It's definitely a early planning thing because it's pointless to get the list of things to buy after you've gone through checkout. Here's an example I can find - “Prepare for Hurricane Season” coupons for 6/22 to 7/19 (the start of hurricane season) http://www.iheartpublix.com/2014/06/new-publix-coupons-prepare-hurricane-season-valid-622-719/ http://www.iheartpublix.com/2014/06/new-publix-coupons-prepa... . Same basic point though - buy staples early because the shelves will quickly be bare if a hurricane is coming. "almost any drills that can prevent a nation breakin down have a lot of value" You need to demonstrate that 1) the nation might break down, 2) there are predictable way(s) that it will break down, 3) there are drills which might prevent that from happening, 4) that a significant proportion (10%? 80%) of the people will participate, and 5) that it's worth the costs, including social effects. Otherwise (and IMHO) you are worried about fantasy scenarios. And I don't even agree with part 1) For another historical example, look towards civil defense preparations for nuclear war. Should we still be doing "duck and cover" drills, on the off chance that a nuclear bomb will go off? When I was a kid they tested the civil defense / nuclear missile warning system every month, just in case. I wonder if they still do that now.. Compare that to the fire, tornado, earthquake, tsunami, etc. drills that people do now. Those are more likely, there's more experience with them, and there are specific ways to handle each one. "fire drills seem not to evolve with time and experience" The technique for sharpening pencils hasn't changed much either. There's something like 130 years of experience in doing school fire drills. Why should you expect to see big changes in the last 20 years?
  - lifeisstillgood 12y ago
    "National breakdown" does sound extreme, but the damage to "society" by failing to prepare for a hurricane is the sort if level of impact I am thinking of - not World War Z. But we lack even the minimum levels of putting advice on shopping bags in the vast majority of States and countries. If there is a real need to lock down say two states, is it reasonable to expect the one that regularly has hurricane drills and experience will fare better - I assume so - and primarily because it's citizens are more prepared for hurricanes and thus anything is slightly easier to deal with. This is an eminently reasonable position to take IMNSHO - most armies will tell you preparation beats most everything else. all your points are valid and I am far more convinced than before I started. I guess my only objection is experience has taught me to beware of convincing explanations that I ought to do nothing ... Which barely counts as a rational position.
    - dalke 12y ago
      We have state and national organizations which are supposed to prepare for large scale emergencies. They do practice. "real need to lock down say two states" Please don't use "lock down". Not only is it tainted with the hyped up fears that schools have to be scared all the time (have you considered what should happen if a fire alarm goes off during a lockdown?), but the correct term is "quarantined". I even linked to the laws regulating quarantine. "most armies will tell you preparation beats most everything else." That's begging the question. Are there useful mass-scale preparations? You haven't demonstrated even that there is a predictable way to handle all possible pandemics. We could find out that a pandemic is carried through cat fur, and that the best response is to kill, shave, or vaccinate all of the cats. How do we practice that? Remember the anthrax attacks? The government gave advice on what people might do in case of attack, including sealing a room with plastic sheeting and duct tape, and suggested that people should stock up with those materials. Did you do so? Do you have a pile of plastic in storage somewhere in your house. It's only effective if you can put it up within the first few minutes of a biological attack. Have you practiced doing so? What about your neighbors? Why do you think any mass advice for possible pandemic would be any more successful? In Switzerland, nearly every home has a bomb shelter, and there are inspections to verify that the shelter is in working condition. Why don't we have those same preparations here? Even in the bomb shelter fads during the Cold War, it wasn't a law and there were no government inspectors for the US. Why did we not do those preparations? Why did we stop doing duck and cover drills? It's eminently reasonable to assume that your position doesn't hold in the real world.

by dalke 12y ago

lifeisstillgood 12y ago

The hurricane comparison is a good one - but presumably some of the people who did buy batteries did so because they saw the warning on the shopping bag - and would not if the bag was blank. I am pretty sure the lessons of crowd behaviour is that the difference between mass riots and calm management is to be measured at the margin. So almost any drills that can prevent a nation breakin down have a lot of value, which is my not very hidden agenda here. I am also fairly sure that fire drills seem not to evolve with time and experience, makng it hard to believe that just because we cannot measure how effective a drill is in staging off national disaster - the essence has not changed in twenty years by my memory. Despite a down thread comment it seems that preparedness is considered a good thing in itself by fire services.

dalke 12y ago
Eh, I can't find pictures of the bags I remember from when I lived in Florida. It's the regular brown paper bags. They would have a suggested shopping list on the side, to help plan before a hurricane comes. They would also have a hurricane tracking map. It's definitely a early planning thing because it's pointless to get the list of things to buy after you've gone through checkout. Here's an example I can find - “Prepare for Hurricane Season” coupons for 6/22 to 7/19 (the start of hurricane season) http://www.iheartpublix.com/2014/06/new-publix-coupons-prepare-hurricane-season-valid-622-719/ http://www.iheartpublix.com/2014/06/new-publix-coupons-prepa... . Same basic point though - buy staples early because the shelves will quickly be bare if a hurricane is coming. "almost any drills that can prevent a nation breakin down have a lot of value" You need to demonstrate that 1) the nation might break down, 2) there are predictable way(s) that it will break down, 3) there are drills which might prevent that from happening, 4) that a significant proportion (10%? 80%) of the people will participate, and 5) that it's worth the costs, including social effects. Otherwise (and IMHO) you are worried about fantasy scenarios. And I don't even agree with part 1) For another historical example, look towards civil defense preparations for nuclear war. Should we still be doing "duck and cover" drills, on the off chance that a nuclear bomb will go off? When I was a kid they tested the civil defense / nuclear missile warning system every month, just in case. I wonder if they still do that now.. Compare that to the fire, tornado, earthquake, tsunami, etc. drills that people do now. Those are more likely, there's more experience with them, and there are specific ways to handle each one. "fire drills seem not to evolve with time and experience" The technique for sharpening pencils hasn't changed much either. There's something like 130 years of experience in doing school fire drills. Why should you expect to see big changes in the last 20 years?
- lifeisstillgood 12y ago
  "National breakdown" does sound extreme, but the damage to "society" by failing to prepare for a hurricane is the sort if level of impact I am thinking of - not World War Z. But we lack even the minimum levels of putting advice on shopping bags in the vast majority of States and countries. If there is a real need to lock down say two states, is it reasonable to expect the one that regularly has hurricane drills and experience will fare better - I assume so - and primarily because it's citizens are more prepared for hurricanes and thus anything is slightly easier to deal with. This is an eminently reasonable position to take IMNSHO - most armies will tell you preparation beats most everything else. all your points are valid and I am far more convinced than before I started. I guess my only objection is experience has taught me to beware of convincing explanations that I ought to do nothing ... Which barely counts as a rational position.
  - dalke 12y ago
    We have state and national organizations which are supposed to prepare for large scale emergencies. They do practice. "real need to lock down say two states" Please don't use "lock down". Not only is it tainted with the hyped up fears that schools have to be scared all the time (have you considered what should happen if a fire alarm goes off during a lockdown?), but the correct term is "quarantined". I even linked to the laws regulating quarantine. "most armies will tell you preparation beats most everything else." That's begging the question. Are there useful mass-scale preparations? You haven't demonstrated even that there is a predictable way to handle all possible pandemics. We could find out that a pandemic is carried through cat fur, and that the best response is to kill, shave, or vaccinate all of the cats. How do we practice that? Remember the anthrax attacks? The government gave advice on what people might do in case of attack, including sealing a room with plastic sheeting and duct tape, and suggested that people should stock up with those materials. Did you do so? Do you have a pile of plastic in storage somewhere in your house. It's only effective if you can put it up within the first few minutes of a biological attack. Have you practiced doing so? What about your neighbors? Why do you think any mass advice for possible pandemic would be any more successful? In Switzerland, nearly every home has a bomb shelter, and there are inspections to verify that the shelter is in working condition. Why don't we have those same preparations here? Even in the bomb shelter fads during the Cold War, it wasn't a law and there were no government inspectors for the US. Why did we not do those preparations? Why did we stop doing duck and cover drills? It's eminently reasonable to assume that your position doesn't hold in the real world.