4 ms·

I wonder what makes this virus so much more contagious that other strains.

by sidcool 12y ago

JshWright 12y ago
What makes you think it is?
- sidcool 12y ago
  Infections spreading even with protective gear.
  - JshWright 12y ago
    That has happened in the past. It's not unique to this outbreak. People make mistakes all the time. Sometimes those mistakes related to how they wear PPE.
giarc 12y ago
It's actually not that contagious. There is a unit of measurement for this called the Ro number (high #=more contagious). Ebola is about 1.8 currently, pandemic flu was 1.9, measles is 15-20.
- hga 12y ago
  I gather that a number of 3 is much more likely than 1.8. Still low compare to what's medically "airborne", especially if you factor in that pandemic flu is probably undercounted.
- philwelch 12y ago
  Only 0.1 less than pandemic flu seems enough to be worried about given Ebola's mortality rate, if pandemic flu is any precedent.
  - giarc 12y ago
    Yes but you have to remember that those numbers are for Africa where infection control is light years behind developed nations.
- fourstar 12y ago
  What? You do realize that a RO can actually grow in size which is exactly what this is doing right? When the outbreak began in Guinea it was RO = 1.5 Early July, the RO in Sierra Leone was 2.5. Today in Liberia, the virus has been spreading so fast that the RO hasn't been computed (and we won't officially know since Liberia has been acting shady and is not reporting all of their statistics). I think you probably saw some infographic floating around and are citing that, but that RO is a variable number.
  - giarc 12y ago
    I assumed the inclusion of the word "currently" would have implied that the number is dynamic, my apologies if that wasn't a safe assumption. I haven't seen any data putting the Ro in any country over 3.0. Obviously waiting to see new data that includes September. Data until Aug 26, 2014. http://www.eurosurveillance.org/images/dynamic/EE/V19N36/art20894.pdf http://www.eurosurveillance.org/images/dynamic/EE/V19N36/art... Data until mid Aug, 2014. http://arxiv.org/abs/1408.3505 http://arxiv.org/abs/1408.3505
stevewilhelm 12y ago
Ebola isn't particularly infectious. It does have a very high fatality risk rate, no known cure, and no vaccine (yet). [1] http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs103/en/ http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs103/en/ [2] http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/health/how-ebola-spreads/ http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/health/how-ebol...
- hga 12y ago
  [1] doesn't cover how many others an Ebola patient infects, which is the reproductive ratio per [2] and basic reproduction number or R <subscript> 0: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number It's above 1, by my and many other's estimates around 3 in this outbreak, which, while technically "isn't particularly infectious", is still very bad and quite enough for exponential growth, in this case with an observed doubling time of 3-4 weeks. The CDC's recent worst case estimate is 1.4 million infections by January.

I wonder what makes this virus so much more contagious that other strains.

by sidcool 12y ago

I wonder what makes this virus so much more contagious that other strains.

JshWright 12y ago

What makes you think it is?

sidcool 12y ago
Infections spreading even with protective gear.
- JshWright 12y ago
  That has happened in the past. It's not unique to this outbreak. People make mistakes all the time. Sometimes those mistakes related to how they wear PPE.

giarc 12y ago

It's actually not that contagious. There is a unit of measurement for this called the Ro number (high #=more contagious). Ebola is about 1.8 currently, pandemic flu was 1.9, measles is 15-20.

hga 12y ago
I gather that a number of 3 is much more likely than 1.8. Still low compare to what's medically "airborne", especially if you factor in that pandemic flu is probably undercounted.
philwelch 12y ago
Only 0.1 less than pandemic flu seems enough to be worried about given Ebola's mortality rate, if pandemic flu is any precedent.
- giarc 12y ago
  Yes but you have to remember that those numbers are for Africa where infection control is light years behind developed nations.
fourstar 12y ago
What? You do realize that a RO can actually grow in size which is exactly what this is doing right? When the outbreak began in Guinea it was RO = 1.5 Early July, the RO in Sierra Leone was 2.5. Today in Liberia, the virus has been spreading so fast that the RO hasn't been computed (and we won't officially know since Liberia has been acting shady and is not reporting all of their statistics). I think you probably saw some infographic floating around and are citing that, but that RO is a variable number.
- giarc 12y ago
  I assumed the inclusion of the word "currently" would have implied that the number is dynamic, my apologies if that wasn't a safe assumption. I haven't seen any data putting the Ro in any country over 3.0. Obviously waiting to see new data that includes September. Data until Aug 26, 2014. http://www.eurosurveillance.org/images/dynamic/EE/V19N36/art20894.pdf http://www.eurosurveillance.org/images/dynamic/EE/V19N36/art... Data until mid Aug, 2014. http://arxiv.org/abs/1408.3505 http://arxiv.org/abs/1408.3505

stevewilhelm 12y ago

Ebola isn't particularly infectious. It does have a very high fatality risk rate, no known cure, and no vaccine (yet). [1] http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs103/en/ http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs103/en/ [2] http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/health/how-ebola-spreads/ http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/health/how-ebol...

hga 12y ago
[1] doesn't cover how many others an Ebola patient infects, which is the reproductive ratio per [2] and basic reproduction number or R <subscript> 0: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number It's above 1, by my and many other's estimates around 3 in this outbreak, which, while technically "isn't particularly infectious", is still very bad and quite enough for exponential growth, in this case with an observed doubling time of 3-4 weeks. The CDC's recent worst case estimate is 1.4 million infections by January.