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Eh, no. I don't trust him because he's written anti-climate change before and doesn't give any sources for his claim that the data is basically fraudulent. See

by lucumo 17y ago

Eh, no. I don't trust him because he's written anti-climate change before and doesn't give any sources for his claim that the data is basically fraudulent. Seems to me he's just searching for arguments to discard the scientific consensus and not trying to further the debate at all.

ars 17y ago
> I don't trust him because he's written anti-climate change before So, you are saying you will only trust him if his views match yours?
- lucumo 17y ago
  No, please stop cherry-picking my statements. I made a sentence consisting of two parts. Leaving out a key part is dishonest. What I said was: > Eh, no. I don't trust him because he's written anti-climate change before and doesn't give any sources for his claim that the data is basically fraudulent. He's clearly a sceptic and that's his right. But I'll give you several points to consider: a) The author has written a book (several even) where he disagrees with the international consensus about climate change. I'd wager a bet that they aren't all about how the data is missing. So either he's out looking for ways to disprove the theories (which is good) and finding a lot or he's just searching for stuff to hit people with, instead of trying to do serious science. I'm inclined to believe the latter, since the former would mean that a few hundred climatologists from around the world are blatantly ignoring clear evidence and the latter would only mean someone with political motives (or being stupid, corrupt or something like it, or any combination of said things). b) He has written extensively about how climate change isn't true, but is only now trying to review the data of people that have found climate change to be happening. That's odd. c) Yes, it makes a difference if he has written anti-climate change before. If he had written pro-climate change before and is now coming to the conclusion that the data can't be checked, his claims are a lot easier to believe because political motives can be ruled out. It's the same when a climate change sceptic would review the data and find that it supports the conclusions. That would mean that it convinced a sceptic. That's a higher bar to pass than convincing a tree-hugger. d) The title of the mentioned book is "Climate of Extremes: Global Warming Science They Don't Want You to Know". "They don't want you to know"? He's apparently implying that there's a conspiracy to make people believe climate change exists. That does not give me a whole lot of confidence in his intellect or intentions. All that makes me distrust the author. Which is fine, I don't need to trust the author to believe facts he reports, as long as there are sources. But he didn't supply any. So I'm left with an article written by somebody I cannot trust to be intellectually honest about the climate debate and that doesn't contain sources. The only conclusion I can come to is that I cannot trust the "facts" reported in it.
  - ars 17y ago
    > No, please stop cherry-picking my statements. I made a sentence consisting of two parts. Leaving out a key part is dishonest. No, I split the sentence in two and showed one of the two parts is wrong. You should have left it out. You essentially made an ad hominem argument, and I pointed it out. I do understand the point that when you can not verify the argument, you verify the person. Which is what you did, but you did it wrong. You compared his beliefs to yours, and since they didn't match you don't trust him. You can verify the person if you want, but not by comparing his opinions to yours.
    - lucumo 17y ago
      > You can verify the person if you want, but not by comparing his opinions to yours. Which isn't what I did. At no point have I given my opinion. My opinion has not changed between my two posts, nor has my point. The last post was an elaboration of the first. If you find no issue with the second, then there is none with the first (other than too brief, apparently). I do not trust the author of an anti-climate change article because he has a pre-existing opinion against climate change AND doesn't cite any sources. If either would have been the opposite, I would have had a different opinion, because then there would be no motive to fudge the truth. Both parts of the statement are important and relevant.
KevinMS 17y ago
"Seems to me he's just searching for arguments to discard the scientific consensus and not trying to further the debate at all." A frightening, ignorant statement. If this subject wasn't so political then "searching for arguments to discard the scientific debate" would be considered exciting, interesting and daring, not "shut the fuck up, we figured it out already". Hasn't science been wrong about everything at one time or another? for luminiferous aether, for eugenics, against evolution, against continental plate drift, etc
- thaumaturgy 17y ago
  I'm surprised and a little bothered by the responses here, especially yours. Assuming that the subject here was, say, evolution, would you respond the same? Would you be saying, "Well, we should consider it exciting, interesting, and daring when someone says that there's not actually any factual basis for evolution"? The other commenters are correct in their critique of this. Michaels isn't offering evidence contrary to most scientists' understanding of climatology. That would be exciting, daring, and interesting. Merely attempting to discredit climate research by saying that they're missing data that they once had is ... well, it's thin at the least, and it doesn't further the debate at all. The whole "science has been wrong before" angle has been answered very well by lots of scientists. The answer basically boils down to, "Yes, but it's usually wrong in a continuous cycle of refinement, not wrong in a 180-degree direction kind of way". It is extremely wasteful to have to keep answering the same questions over and over in scientific contexts, especially when those are brought by people who aren't familiar with the field, and especially when their questions basically amount to, "You haven't answered all my questions the way I wanted you to, and you might be wrong." If you -- or Michaels -- wants some credence in the scientific community, then you have to do some actual research, you have to have some actual data, and you have to get it peer-reviewed. That's how it works.
  - KevinMS 17y ago
    "The whole "science has been wrong before" angle has been answered very well by lots of scientists. The answer basically boils down to, "Yes, but it's usually wrong in a continuous cycle of refinement, not wrong in a 180-degree direction kind of way"." Well I'm talking about scientific revolutions, which are 180's "If you -- or Michaels -- wants some credence in the scientific community, then you have to do some actual research, you have to have some actual data, and you have to get it peer-reviewed." This happens all the time, but you don't hear about it, because they are against the scientific consensus. Also, funding is 1000 times higher for pro-warming than against. If you want funding to study the blue-footed-boobie get in line, but if you want to study the effects of global warming on the blue-footed-boobie they throw money at you. That's how it works.
gcheong 17y ago
Well if you have consensus then there is nothing to debate (and hence nothing to further) unless you have an argument against the consensus.
invisible 17y ago
I think the problem is that others are telling him that doubting the scientific consensus is how science, academia, and the world should be. Quite contrary, science has improved and expanded beyond what it was 100 years ago simply because everyone doubts and challenges the norm. Now, I've never seen scientific data to prove that climate change is real (besides it being hotter in Florida in my opinion). I'm not a scientist and I don't actively search for such data.
jerf 17y ago
"that the data is basically fraudulent." Where's the claim the data is fraudulent? The claim is the data is missing. This is not the same. The presumption that it did exist is the reasonable conclusion, however, for it to be scientifically useful, people need to be able examine the data from the beginning. Correction techniques are routine applied to data across a wide variety of sciences, but are themselves something legitimately subject to scientific examination due to their intrinsic danger. For all you know, the corrected data underestimates warming due to use of bad correction methods! How would you prove this, though? The data is missing. Here's a very important point: This isn't about global warming or the skepticism thereof. This is a story about scientific malfeasance. Going to town defending people who can't produce their data, in accordance with the basic scientific principle of reproducibility, is an enormous flashing warning sign that you are deciding positions based on politics and not science. The scientific principle is clear: The data should be readily available for others to examine, full stop. That examiners may challenge it is a feature of the scientific process, not a bug! There's really no room for debate on this, unless you are willing to admit up front that science is not a relevant consideration to your position, in which case, yeah, sure, go nuts defending the guys who won't produce their data. But you should be aware you've left science behind. Am I personally a skeptic? Yes. But this isn't why, nor do I consider this evidence of my position. It is just plain scientific malfeasance of the kind that can pop up anywhere; since it's hardly the only piece of evidence in any direction, it's not really a story about this one piece of evidence. But it's critical to root this stuff out, call it out, and address it head on, for the same reasons it's important to call out the corruption of any other process. You can't tolerate this stuff, or it gets worse. I would by the first to criticize anyone who published one of the (many) scientific publications that bolster my personal beliefs if they refused to share data with "critics". This is basic science.
- sethjohn 17y ago
  You have hit upon a key distinction, unfortunately the author is intentionally muddling these two issues of 1)scientific data is missing or being withheld and 2) global warming or the skepticism thereof. "the data needed to verify the gloom-and-doom warming forecasts have disappeared" "If there are no data, there’s no science." There are plenty of mundane explainations for why scientists aren't providing data to people like Warwick Hughes. Perhaps Jones thought Hughes was a crank. Perhaps assembling the data was a lot of work and Jones didn't feel like going through all that work for someone he thought was just trying to raise trouble. Perhaps there were legal issues to providing the data publicly (as the article notes) that hadn't been resolved yet. Of course Jones was wrong, all scientists should make every effort to provide data to anyone and everyone who wants it, even people they think are 'cranks'. In fact, Jones' reluctance to provide data to climate skeptics only fuels the fire of skepticism. But for the author to argue that this single act casts any serious doubt on the science of global warming is giving this incident far more importance than it deserves.

by lucumo 17y ago

ars 17y ago

> I don't trust him because he's written anti-climate change before So, you are saying you will only trust him if his views match yours?

lucumo 17y ago
No, please stop cherry-picking my statements. I made a sentence consisting of two parts. Leaving out a key part is dishonest. What I said was: > Eh, no. I don't trust him because he's written anti-climate change before and doesn't give any sources for his claim that the data is basically fraudulent. He's clearly a sceptic and that's his right. But I'll give you several points to consider: a) The author has written a book (several even) where he disagrees with the international consensus about climate change. I'd wager a bet that they aren't all about how the data is missing. So either he's out looking for ways to disprove the theories (which is good) and finding a lot or he's just searching for stuff to hit people with, instead of trying to do serious science. I'm inclined to believe the latter, since the former would mean that a few hundred climatologists from around the world are blatantly ignoring clear evidence and the latter would only mean someone with political motives (or being stupid, corrupt or something like it, or any combination of said things). b) He has written extensively about how climate change isn't true, but is only now trying to review the data of people that have found climate change to be happening. That's odd. c) Yes, it makes a difference if he has written anti-climate change before. If he had written pro-climate change before and is now coming to the conclusion that the data can't be checked, his claims are a lot easier to believe because political motives can be ruled out. It's the same when a climate change sceptic would review the data and find that it supports the conclusions. That would mean that it convinced a sceptic. That's a higher bar to pass than convincing a tree-hugger. d) The title of the mentioned book is "Climate of Extremes: Global Warming Science They Don't Want You to Know". "They don't want you to know"? He's apparently implying that there's a conspiracy to make people believe climate change exists. That does not give me a whole lot of confidence in his intellect or intentions. All that makes me distrust the author. Which is fine, I don't need to trust the author to believe facts he reports, as long as there are sources. But he didn't supply any. So I'm left with an article written by somebody I cannot trust to be intellectually honest about the climate debate and that doesn't contain sources. The only conclusion I can come to is that I cannot trust the "facts" reported in it.
- ars 17y ago
  > No, please stop cherry-picking my statements. I made a sentence consisting of two parts. Leaving out a key part is dishonest. No, I split the sentence in two and showed one of the two parts is wrong. You should have left it out. You essentially made an ad hominem argument, and I pointed it out. I do understand the point that when you can not verify the argument, you verify the person. Which is what you did, but you did it wrong. You compared his beliefs to yours, and since they didn't match you don't trust him. You can verify the person if you want, but not by comparing his opinions to yours.
  - lucumo 17y ago
    > You can verify the person if you want, but not by comparing his opinions to yours. Which isn't what I did. At no point have I given my opinion. My opinion has not changed between my two posts, nor has my point. The last post was an elaboration of the first. If you find no issue with the second, then there is none with the first (other than too brief, apparently). I do not trust the author of an anti-climate change article because he has a pre-existing opinion against climate change AND doesn't cite any sources. If either would have been the opposite, I would have had a different opinion, because then there would be no motive to fudge the truth. Both parts of the statement are important and relevant.

KevinMS 17y ago

"Seems to me he's just searching for arguments to discard the scientific consensus and not trying to further the debate at all." A frightening, ignorant statement. If this subject wasn't so political then "searching for arguments to discard the scientific debate" would be considered exciting, interesting and daring, not "shut the fuck up, we figured it out already". Hasn't science been wrong about everything at one time or another? for luminiferous aether, for eugenics, against evolution, against continental plate drift, etc

thaumaturgy 17y ago
I'm surprised and a little bothered by the responses here, especially yours. Assuming that the subject here was, say, evolution, would you respond the same? Would you be saying, "Well, we should consider it exciting, interesting, and daring when someone says that there's not actually any factual basis for evolution"? The other commenters are correct in their critique of this. Michaels isn't offering evidence contrary to most scientists' understanding of climatology. That would be exciting, daring, and interesting. Merely attempting to discredit climate research by saying that they're missing data that they once had is ... well, it's thin at the least, and it doesn't further the debate at all. The whole "science has been wrong before" angle has been answered very well by lots of scientists. The answer basically boils down to, "Yes, but it's usually wrong in a continuous cycle of refinement, not wrong in a 180-degree direction kind of way". It is extremely wasteful to have to keep answering the same questions over and over in scientific contexts, especially when those are brought by people who aren't familiar with the field, and especially when their questions basically amount to, "You haven't answered all my questions the way I wanted you to, and you might be wrong." If you -- or Michaels -- wants some credence in the scientific community, then you have to do some actual research, you have to have some actual data, and you have to get it peer-reviewed. That's how it works.
- KevinMS 17y ago
  "The whole "science has been wrong before" angle has been answered very well by lots of scientists. The answer basically boils down to, "Yes, but it's usually wrong in a continuous cycle of refinement, not wrong in a 180-degree direction kind of way"." Well I'm talking about scientific revolutions, which are 180's "If you -- or Michaels -- wants some credence in the scientific community, then you have to do some actual research, you have to have some actual data, and you have to get it peer-reviewed." This happens all the time, but you don't hear about it, because they are against the scientific consensus. Also, funding is 1000 times higher for pro-warming than against. If you want funding to study the blue-footed-boobie get in line, but if you want to study the effects of global warming on the blue-footed-boobie they throw money at you. That's how it works.

gcheong 17y ago

Well if you have consensus then there is nothing to debate (and hence nothing to further) unless you have an argument against the consensus.

invisible 17y ago

I think the problem is that others are telling him that doubting the scientific consensus is how science, academia, and the world should be. Quite contrary, science has improved and expanded beyond what it was 100 years ago simply because everyone doubts and challenges the norm. Now, I've never seen scientific data to prove that climate change is real (besides it being hotter in Florida in my opinion). I'm not a scientist and I don't actively search for such data.

jerf 17y ago

"that the data is basically fraudulent." Where's the claim the data is fraudulent? The claim is the data is missing. This is not the same. The presumption that it did exist is the reasonable conclusion, however, for it to be scientifically useful, people need to be able examine the data from the beginning. Correction techniques are routine applied to data across a wide variety of sciences, but are themselves something legitimately subject to scientific examination due to their intrinsic danger. For all you know, the corrected data underestimates warming due to use of bad correction methods! How would you prove this, though? The data is missing. Here's a very important point: This isn't about global warming or the skepticism thereof. This is a story about scientific malfeasance. Going to town defending people who can't produce their data, in accordance with the basic scientific principle of reproducibility, is an enormous flashing warning sign that you are deciding positions based on politics and not science. The scientific principle is clear: The data should be readily available for others to examine, full stop. That examiners may challenge it is a feature of the scientific process, not a bug! There's really no room for debate on this, unless you are willing to admit up front that science is not a relevant consideration to your position, in which case, yeah, sure, go nuts defending the guys who won't produce their data. But you should be aware you've left science behind. Am I personally a skeptic? Yes. But this isn't why, nor do I consider this evidence of my position. It is just plain scientific malfeasance of the kind that can pop up anywhere; since it's hardly the only piece of evidence in any direction, it's not really a story about this one piece of evidence. But it's critical to root this stuff out, call it out, and address it head on, for the same reasons it's important to call out the corruption of any other process. You can't tolerate this stuff, or it gets worse. I would by the first to criticize anyone who published one of the (many) scientific publications that bolster my personal beliefs if they refused to share data with "critics". This is basic science.

sethjohn 17y ago
You have hit upon a key distinction, unfortunately the author is intentionally muddling these two issues of 1)scientific data is missing or being withheld and 2) global warming or the skepticism thereof. "the data needed to verify the gloom-and-doom warming forecasts have disappeared" "If there are no data, there’s no science." There are plenty of mundane explainations for why scientists aren't providing data to people like Warwick Hughes. Perhaps Jones thought Hughes was a crank. Perhaps assembling the data was a lot of work and Jones didn't feel like going through all that work for someone he thought was just trying to raise trouble. Perhaps there were legal issues to providing the data publicly (as the article notes) that hadn't been resolved yet. Of course Jones was wrong, all scientists should make every effort to provide data to anyone and everyone who wants it, even people they think are 'cranks'. In fact, Jones' reluctance to provide data to climate skeptics only fuels the fire of skepticism. But for the author to argue that this single act casts any serious doubt on the science of global warming is giving this incident far more importance than it deserves.