4 ms·
No one knows. It's a black swan. It's not predictable as a rule. I fully expect it within 30 years simply based on the rate of progression, overall (not in t
by david927 12y ago
No one knows. It's a black swan. It's not predictable as a rule.
I fully expect it within 30 years simply based on the rate of progression, overall (not in the field of AI specifically).
- danieltillett 12y ago>No one knows. It's a black swan. It's not predictable as a rule. As an Australian I always have found the term black swan amusing as all our swans are black - I would actually be shocked to see a white swan. More seriously why do you think 30 years?
- david927 12y agoFor the similar reasons to what Kurzweil puts forth here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Singularity_Is_Near http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Singularity_Is_Near Here it is in seven quick minutes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1uIzS1uCOcE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1uIzS1uCOcE (Note: I think he's wrong in how he thinks it will unfold, but right in thinking the doubling every year of technology, in general, will contribute to bringing it about.)