6 ms·

Is This the Light Bulb of the Future?

23 points by newacc 17y ago

ams6110 17y ago
"Today’s LED-based lamps cost up to $100 each ... Over the long term, we can absolutely get the cost down to the $20-25 range" While they do sound better than the abysm that is the compact flourescent bulb, at that price they're a no-go compared to incandescents that are $0.20 - $0.25 or less at retail.
- Retric 17y ago
  10 watts to create the equivalent light of a 60-watt incandescent bulb; the color of the light output must mimic that of today’s incandescents; and the bulbs must last at least 25,000 hours Assuming 8c / kwh: Energy savings = 50w / 1000 (w/kw) * 25,000h * 0.08 $ / kwh = 100$. They still stuck compared to CF, but if you keep a light on 24/7 then these should just about break even compared to incandescents at 100$.
  - camccann 17y ago
    How often do people actually do a full-lifetime total cost estimate like that, instead of just going for what's cheapest right at the moment?
    - harpastum 17y ago
      On the other hand, 25,000 hours at 2 hours a day gives the bulb a lifetime of almost 35 years. I think you could really sell people on the "just set it and forget it" model.
      - throw_away 17y ago
        on the other hand, what will be the impact on a manufacturer's bottom line when its customers have no incentive to ever upgrade or replace? maybe they could just license the light bulbs to end-users... :)
        mhb 17y ago
        Are manufacturers of granite countertops going out of business because of that?
      - camccann 17y ago
        Only if they believe you, though. CFLs have a lifetime of around 10,000 hours but some people discovered the hard way that they don't handle some operating environments, and then stopped trusting the rated lifetime at all.
        anamax 17y ago
        In what operating environments should I expect CFLs to hit 10k hours? I'm not getting anywhere near that in a socket with no cover (so there's no heat build-up and room temp is steady too) that's turned on/off once/weekday and stays on for 4-6 hours. Nope, no dimmer. That's pretty much a best case for incandescents, I've had some last for years in those exact sockets, but I'm replacing CFLs pretty much every year.
        camccann 17y ago
        Anecodtally, I've been using CFLs exclusively for years and I don't think I've ever had one die. So either you've gotten extremely unlucky or there's something nonobvious causing your problem. Do you lose CFLs at the same rate in other sockets? I'm not an expert, but my first guess would be that you have dirty power messing with the electronic ballast; that wouldn't affect an incandecsent bulb appreciably, I expect.
        bhousel 17y ago
        More anecdotal evidence.. I bought a few packs of cheap "Globe" brand CFL bulbs on Amazon, and had several failures after about 2 weeks. These were just in a normal ceiling fixture in the kitchen, which we only use a few hours a day. Sadly, the packages mention a guarantee, but there seems to be no way to claim it. They're Chinese made bulbs imported through Canada and the company doesn't respond to phone or email. OTOH, the Ikea branded CFL bulbs we bought have been working fine for years. I guess you get what you pay for..
        anamax 17y ago
        I don't have problems with any other electronic equipment, so if CFLs are delicate flowers.... (Filtered power isn't an option for a socket in the ceiling.)
    - HeyLaughingBoy 17y ago
      After they've bought the cheap ones a few times and had to replace them after 3 months? You'd be surprised. Especially if the bulbs in question are in a high vaulted ceiling lamp. It's not just the cost of the bulb, it's the reliability and the time it takes to keep replacing them that's important.
  - trebor 17y ago
    Just so long as you don't drop the CFL! Have you read the warnings on that thing? Mercury gas accounts for as much as 40mg/bulb, and they say vacate the entire premises, change air filters, and destroy whatever the bulb broke on (like clothes or furniture). Hazmat!
  - anamax 17y ago
    25k hours is about three years of 24/7. You might be able to ignore the time value of money for that period, but you can't for 9 years, which is 25k hours of 8/7. I doubt that there's a large fraction of lights that are on 24/7. I suspect that the big users are around 8/7 and between 6/5 and 10/5.
kevbin 17y ago
"In several states, such as California, profits are 'decoupled' from consumption." Hmmm, I wonder why CA has such unreliable, expensive power?
- tomsaffell 17y ago
  That's some pretty speculative wondering.. According to this study, California has fairly average reliability (page 26). (using interruption cost as proxy) http://www.netl.doe.gov/moderngrid/docs/Cost_of_Power_Interruptions_to_Electricity_Consumers_in_the_.pdf http://www.netl.doe.gov/moderngrid/docs/Cost_of_Power_Interr...
  - TheElder 17y ago
    The expensive part doesn't seem to be too speculative: http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epm/table5_6_a.html http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epm/table5_6_a.html Wow, I didn't realize California and the north east has such high energy prices compared to the rest of the continental US.
- camccann 17y ago
  It's probably more that they failed to expand their power generation capacity to meet demand, then tried to fix the problem by implementing a half-baked "deregulation" scheme that created a distorted market full of loopholes that allowed unscrupulous raiders (cf. Enron) to go on a looting spree and wreck the whole system, and it takes a while to pick up the pieces after a disastrous mistake. The moral of the story is that sometimes, "a competitive free market" and "a stable, regulated public utility" are both local maxima and may have very, very deep minima between them.
  - randallsquared 17y ago
    [...] sometimes, "a competitive free market" and "a stable, regulated public utility" are both local maxima and may have very, very deep minima between them. QFT. This is a very, very important point, and one that is usually lost in the vociferous arguing between those who prefer one pole or the other.
kvs 17y ago
Good to see gov agencies mimicing NetFlix type contests to speed up innovation and adoption.
ars 17y ago
I'm not surprised at the cost. The biggest problem with LEDs has been that efficiency drops as the LED is scaled up in brightness. Most likely they solved that by placing a very large number of smaller LEDs together in one bulb. But it's not going to be easy to reduce the cost when you go that route. The basic research of making a bright LED efficient has not been solved yet.
- eande 17y ago
  The efficacy drops with junction temperature. Incandescent lamps are at 15 lumen/watt and CFL reach 40 to 50 lumen/watt. LED still has a long way to go and system efficacy are now reached up to 60lumen/watt. Key players like Nichia have parts in the lab running close to 200lm/Watt. There are single LED packages on the market like from www.luminus.com generating 6000lumen in one part. That is about 8 times of a 60W incandescent light bulb. Problem is more the LED itself still has a 10cent/lumen cost. Many LED manufacturer are bringing more and more fabs online and with volume the prices keeps dropping. So far the Haitz law is still good for the LED world. In the next 4 years the LED illumination market in the US will go from couple million dollar to $5B per year and the 60W pulp replacement is expected to be around $16 retail price. Calculating the energy and invest cost a LED replacement in 4 to 5 years you will have an ROI of less than a year for LED light product.
dnewcome 17y ago
I had this funny feeling while reading this, like reading a story about Edison on Wikipedia. I know it's corny, but the high price tag only seems to reinforce the similarities in trajectory to early incandescent bulbs, which probably were just as expensive then.
_ck_ 17y ago
I can think of a few more tests they need to do, like turn it on and off 365x10 times in a row and see if it can handle it (most of my LED 110VAC have not survived more than a year). Also dimmer capable electronics. But mass-made mercury-free option would be very nice, I don't use CFLs for that very reason. Next they need to do this kind of prize for LiFePo4 batteries, and start using the huge lithium deposits that are in the USA (owned by Canadian mining corporations that refuse to mine them until the price is lithium is double what it is today).
cma 17y ago
Like platinum catalysts in cars' catalytic convertors, these things will probably suffer an intial period of widespread theft.
jrockway 17y ago
Once a winner is chosen, the utilities will help promote and possibly subsidize the cost of the lamp. What is the incentive for utility companies to subsidize products that use less of their product?

23 points by newacc 17y ago

"Today’s LED-based lamps cost up to $100 each ... Over the long term, we can absolutely get the cost down to the $20-25 range" While they do sound better than the abysm that is the compact flourescent bulb, at that price they're a no-go compared to incandescents that are $0.20 - $0.25 or less at retail.

Retric 17y ago
10 watts to create the equivalent light of a 60-watt incandescent bulb; the color of the light output must mimic that of today’s incandescents; and the bulbs must last at least 25,000 hours Assuming 8c / kwh: Energy savings = 50w / 1000 (w/kw) * 25,000h * 0.08 $ / kwh = 100$. They still stuck compared to CF, but if you keep a light on 24/7 then these should just about break even compared to incandescents at 100$.
- camccann 17y ago
  How often do people actually do a full-lifetime total cost estimate like that, instead of just going for what's cheapest right at the moment?
  - harpastum 17y ago
    On the other hand, 25,000 hours at 2 hours a day gives the bulb a lifetime of almost 35 years. I think you could really sell people on the "just set it and forget it" model.
    - throw_away 17y ago
      on the other hand, what will be the impact on a manufacturer's bottom line when its customers have no incentive to ever upgrade or replace? maybe they could just license the light bulbs to end-users... :)
      - mhb 17y ago
        Are manufacturers of granite countertops going out of business because of that?
    - camccann 17y ago
      Only if they believe you, though. CFLs have a lifetime of around 10,000 hours but some people discovered the hard way that they don't handle some operating environments, and then stopped trusting the rated lifetime at all.
      - anamax 17y ago
        In what operating environments should I expect CFLs to hit 10k hours? I'm not getting anywhere near that in a socket with no cover (so there's no heat build-up and room temp is steady too) that's turned on/off once/weekday and stays on for 4-6 hours. Nope, no dimmer. That's pretty much a best case for incandescents, I've had some last for years in those exact sockets, but I'm replacing CFLs pretty much every year.
        camccann 17y ago
        Anecodtally, I've been using CFLs exclusively for years and I don't think I've ever had one die. So either you've gotten extremely unlucky or there's something nonobvious causing your problem. Do you lose CFLs at the same rate in other sockets? I'm not an expert, but my first guess would be that you have dirty power messing with the electronic ballast; that wouldn't affect an incandecsent bulb appreciably, I expect.
        bhousel 17y ago
        More anecdotal evidence.. I bought a few packs of cheap "Globe" brand CFL bulbs on Amazon, and had several failures after about 2 weeks. These were just in a normal ceiling fixture in the kitchen, which we only use a few hours a day. Sadly, the packages mention a guarantee, but there seems to be no way to claim it. They're Chinese made bulbs imported through Canada and the company doesn't respond to phone or email. OTOH, the Ikea branded CFL bulbs we bought have been working fine for years. I guess you get what you pay for..
        anamax 17y ago
        I don't have problems with any other electronic equipment, so if CFLs are delicate flowers.... (Filtered power isn't an option for a socket in the ceiling.)
  - HeyLaughingBoy 17y ago
    After they've bought the cheap ones a few times and had to replace them after 3 months? You'd be surprised. Especially if the bulbs in question are in a high vaulted ceiling lamp. It's not just the cost of the bulb, it's the reliability and the time it takes to keep replacing them that's important.
- trebor 17y ago
  Just so long as you don't drop the CFL! Have you read the warnings on that thing? Mercury gas accounts for as much as 40mg/bulb, and they say vacate the entire premises, change air filters, and destroy whatever the bulb broke on (like clothes or furniture). Hazmat!
- anamax 17y ago
  25k hours is about three years of 24/7. You might be able to ignore the time value of money for that period, but you can't for 9 years, which is 25k hours of 8/7. I doubt that there's a large fraction of lights that are on 24/7. I suspect that the big users are around 8/7 and between 6/5 and 10/5.

kevbin 17y ago

"In several states, such as California, profits are 'decoupled' from consumption." Hmmm, I wonder why CA has such unreliable, expensive power?

tomsaffell 17y ago
That's some pretty speculative wondering.. According to this study, California has fairly average reliability (page 26). (using interruption cost as proxy) http://www.netl.doe.gov/moderngrid/docs/Cost_of_Power_Interruptions_to_Electricity_Consumers_in_the_.pdf http://www.netl.doe.gov/moderngrid/docs/Cost_of_Power_Interr...
- TheElder 17y ago
  The expensive part doesn't seem to be too speculative: http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epm/table5_6_a.html http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epm/table5_6_a.html Wow, I didn't realize California and the north east has such high energy prices compared to the rest of the continental US.
camccann 17y ago
It's probably more that they failed to expand their power generation capacity to meet demand, then tried to fix the problem by implementing a half-baked "deregulation" scheme that created a distorted market full of loopholes that allowed unscrupulous raiders (cf. Enron) to go on a looting spree and wreck the whole system, and it takes a while to pick up the pieces after a disastrous mistake. The moral of the story is that sometimes, "a competitive free market" and "a stable, regulated public utility" are both local maxima and may have very, very deep minima between them.
- randallsquared 17y ago
  [...] sometimes, "a competitive free market" and "a stable, regulated public utility" are both local maxima and may have very, very deep minima between them. QFT. This is a very, very important point, and one that is usually lost in the vociferous arguing between those who prefer one pole or the other.

kvs 17y ago

Good to see gov agencies mimicing NetFlix type contests to speed up innovation and adoption.

ars 17y ago

I'm not surprised at the cost. The biggest problem with LEDs has been that efficiency drops as the LED is scaled up in brightness. Most likely they solved that by placing a very large number of smaller LEDs together in one bulb. But it's not going to be easy to reduce the cost when you go that route. The basic research of making a bright LED efficient has not been solved yet.

eande 17y ago
The efficacy drops with junction temperature. Incandescent lamps are at 15 lumen/watt and CFL reach 40 to 50 lumen/watt. LED still has a long way to go and system efficacy are now reached up to 60lumen/watt. Key players like Nichia have parts in the lab running close to 200lm/Watt. There are single LED packages on the market like from www.luminus.com generating 6000lumen in one part. That is about 8 times of a 60W incandescent light bulb. Problem is more the LED itself still has a 10cent/lumen cost. Many LED manufacturer are bringing more and more fabs online and with volume the prices keeps dropping. So far the Haitz law is still good for the LED world. In the next 4 years the LED illumination market in the US will go from couple million dollar to $5B per year and the 60W pulp replacement is expected to be around $16 retail price. Calculating the energy and invest cost a LED replacement in 4 to 5 years you will have an ROI of less than a year for LED light product.

dnewcome 17y ago

I had this funny feeling while reading this, like reading a story about Edison on Wikipedia. I know it's corny, but the high price tag only seems to reinforce the similarities in trajectory to early incandescent bulbs, which probably were just as expensive then.

_ck_ 17y ago

I can think of a few more tests they need to do, like turn it on and off 365x10 times in a row and see if it can handle it (most of my LED 110VAC have not survived more than a year). Also dimmer capable electronics. But mass-made mercury-free option would be very nice, I don't use CFLs for that very reason. Next they need to do this kind of prize for LiFePo4 batteries, and start using the huge lithium deposits that are in the USA (owned by Canadian mining corporations that refuse to mine them until the price is lithium is double what it is today).

cma 17y ago

Like platinum catalysts in cars' catalytic convertors, these things will probably suffer an intial period of widespread theft.

jrockway 17y ago

Once a winner is chosen, the utilities will help promote and possibly subsidize the cost of the lamp. What is the incentive for utility companies to subsidize products that use less of their product?