More on our overconfidence bias: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overconfidence_effect http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overconfidence_effect and it's twin brother, c

More on our overconfidence bias: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overconfidence_effect http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overconfidence_effect and it's twin brother, certanity bias: http://scienceblogs.com/cortex/2008/10/the_certainty_bias_1.php http://scienceblogs.com/cortex/2008/10/the_certainty_bias_1.... The human brain just isn't built to handle probabilities very well.