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But the workforce participation rate also fell. "Notably, part of the decline in the unemployment rate was because workers left the labor force. The share of t

But the workforce participation rate also fell. "Notably, part of the decline in the unemployment rate was because workers left the labor force. The share of the population with jobs or hunting for one fell to 62.7 percent, its lowest level since 1978." http://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/unemployment-rate-drops-6-year-low-5-9-percent-n217491 http://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/unemployment-rate-dr... Another article I read earlier today also said that the average wage fell by 1 cent.

inzax 12y ago
Im glad someone actually points this out. This is the real news.
rhino369 12y ago
How much of this is caused by the aging population? It would be interesting to see the labor force rate between 20 and 65.
- toomuchtodo 12y ago
  http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-kVyZDV_5XZA/Uz6n7yb5lNI/AAAAAAAAejQ/iFnxKHVQnSM/s1600/EmployPopMar2014.jpg http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-kVyZDV_5XZA/Uz6n7yb5lNI/AAAAAAAAej... From a blog post on http://www.calculatedriskblog.com http://www.calculatedriskblog.com a few months ago, highly recommend the blog.
NewHermes 12y ago
One is left to wonder how much a burgeoning economy matters when the middle class is poorer than it was 25 years ago. (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/10/01/the-middle-class-is-poorer-today-than-it-was-in-1989/ http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/10/01/t...) Why should I care if the pie is getting bigger if I'm getting smaller peice at the end of the day? Give me a smaller pie and a bigger peice of said pie anyday.
- rhino369 12y ago
  The jobless rate is an indicator of difference between demand and supply for employees. With people out of work, of course salaries will shrink. That will change when the jobless rate returns to normal.
  - epicureanideal 12y ago
    A very poor indicator, given that it doesn't count workers who have given up looking for a job because none were available.
    - rhino369 12y ago
      If they gave up, they aren't really in competition.
    - YokoZar 12y ago
      This criticism of unemployment statistics is parroted whenever an unemployment discussion is had. But those discouraged worker numbers are tracked too. They tend to go together, and the recent news about hiring increases is not due to a massive increase in discouraged workers. Sometimes there really is a net increase in employment.
- fludlight 12y ago
  Some research suggests that happiness vis a vis personal wealth is determined by how much you have relative to your friends.
  - NewHermes 12y ago
    That actually makes a lot of sense. I'll have to look at some studies.
    - fludlight 12y ago
      If you google my comment[1] you will find it[2-5]. [1] https://www.google.com/search?q=research+suggests+that+happiness+vis+a+vis+personal+wealth+is+determined+by+how+much+you+have+relative&oq=research+suggests+that+happiness+vis+a+vis+personal+wealth+is+determined+by+how+much+you+have+relative&aqs=chrome..69i57&sourceid=chrome&es_sm=91&ie=UTF-8 https://www.google.com/search?q=research+suggests+that+happi... [2] http://www.usc.edu/dept/pubrel/trojan_family/winter07/happiness.html http://www.usc.edu/dept/pubrel/trojan_family/winter07/happin... [3] http://vanneman.umd.edu/socy699J/GrahamP02.pdf http://vanneman.umd.edu/socy699J/GrahamP02.pdf [4] http://isites.harvard.edu/fs/docs/icb.topic620591.files/Indices_of_Wellbeing/HSPH.pdf http://isites.harvard.edu/fs/docs/icb.topic620591.files/Indi... [5] Relative Income Hypothesis. I will leave the googling of this as an exercise for the reader.
jjoonathan 12y ago
What fraction of that is due to demographics? Discouraged workers are bad news, but old people retiring isn't bad news.
- fludlight 12y ago
  There's a chart on page 10: Identifying Factors behind the Decline in the U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate http://macrothink.org/journal/index.php/ber/article/download/3370/2921 http://macrothink.org/journal/index.php/ber/article/download...
  - YokoZar 12y ago
    As a brief summary, as of 2012 the decline in labor force participation rate was about 1/3 due to demographic shifts and 2/3 due to the business cycle. The paper notes it was expected to fall even further, however individual "behavior changes" caused it to not fall as far.
    - jaekwon 12y ago
      Most of it was due to "business cycle"? What does that mean?
      - 001sky 12y ago
        The recession triggered changes in organiztion structure accross a wide variety of areas. This led to re-negotiation or termination of previously existing employment contracts. When there is a market failure to re-negotiate such contracts on mutualy agreeable terms, the parties are no longer in an employee/employer relationship. The parties are not in the workforce. Whether they are declared "unemployed" or not is a bit of a shambolic side debate about window dressing.
beeworker 12y ago
When you don't include short-term discouraged workers, it's easier to get better headline numbers even if the overall trend is about the same. Adding an estimate for long-term discouraged workers, it's not quite as clear that unemployment is reducing: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-chart...
- joshuahedlund 12y ago
  While I try to take all government-produced estimates with a grain of salt, I and many others consider ShadowStats's mysterious estimates much less reliable, due to a fairly obvious anti-government agenda and the simple infamous fact that they insist inflation is severely underreported despite not raising their subscription price in over 8 years!
- prostoalex 12y ago
  You'd have to gather some data before bucketing them under "discouraged". One side effect of Affordable Care Act is that it's possible for a 40-year-old corporate employee with savings, family and children, to leave their current job, work on new business and buy an affordable health insurance plan. Previously lack (or low quality) of individual health plans would discourage anybody from leaving their corporate job, even if they accumulated enough savings to do it.
nazgulnarsil 12y ago
I don't buy it. For myself and other employers I know, we're just having an incredibly difficult time hiring low skilled employees. $15 an hour for menial work? Maybe 4-5 responses from craigslist. Contrast this with a couple years ago when there would have been dozens of applicants. Labor seems tight.
- acadien 12y ago
  That's just anecdotal evidence, what you're experiencing might just be local to your town or the type of work you're offering.
- totalrobe 12y ago
  Where?
  - jjoonathan 12y ago
    Speculation: someplace where $15/hr isn't enough to live even a commuter lifestyle.
- ritchiea 12y ago
  I don't know what kind of menial positions you're hiring for but I have definitely seen companies with implicit hiring policies that would make it difficult to hire many of the people who are actually in need of menial work for employment. e.g. want menial work? Well you should still at least sort of remind me of the upper middle class/Ivy league types I am hiring for my salaried positions. Even in our current context of an industry dominated by affluent white males I think what I describe above is where race and class discrimination are worst for job seekers.
- deleted 12y ago
  [deleted]
- guessbest 12y ago
  Hey, I'm an iOS developer desperately seeking work. I am also a vet, and I've had no luck finding work. Where can I go to get this work? I'll even do menial work.

inzax 12y ago

Im glad someone actually points this out. This is the real news.

rhino369 12y ago

How much of this is caused by the aging population? It would be interesting to see the labor force rate between 20 and 65.

toomuchtodo 12y ago
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-kVyZDV_5XZA/Uz6n7yb5lNI/AAAAAAAAejQ/iFnxKHVQnSM/s1600/EmployPopMar2014.jpg http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-kVyZDV_5XZA/Uz6n7yb5lNI/AAAAAAAAej... From a blog post on http://www.calculatedriskblog.com http://www.calculatedriskblog.com a few months ago, highly recommend the blog.

NewHermes 12y ago

One is left to wonder how much a burgeoning economy matters when the middle class is poorer than it was 25 years ago. (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/10/01/the-middle-class-is-poorer-today-than-it-was-in-1989/ http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/10/01/t...) Why should I care if the pie is getting bigger if I'm getting smaller peice at the end of the day? Give me a smaller pie and a bigger peice of said pie anyday.

rhino369 12y ago
The jobless rate is an indicator of difference between demand and supply for employees. With people out of work, of course salaries will shrink. That will change when the jobless rate returns to normal.
- epicureanideal 12y ago
  A very poor indicator, given that it doesn't count workers who have given up looking for a job because none were available.
  - rhino369 12y ago
    If they gave up, they aren't really in competition.
  - YokoZar 12y ago
    This criticism of unemployment statistics is parroted whenever an unemployment discussion is had. But those discouraged worker numbers are tracked too. They tend to go together, and the recent news about hiring increases is not due to a massive increase in discouraged workers. Sometimes there really is a net increase in employment.
fludlight 12y ago
Some research suggests that happiness vis a vis personal wealth is determined by how much you have relative to your friends.
- NewHermes 12y ago
  That actually makes a lot of sense. I'll have to look at some studies.
  - fludlight 12y ago
    If you google my comment[1] you will find it[2-5]. [1] https://www.google.com/search?q=research+suggests+that+happiness+vis+a+vis+personal+wealth+is+determined+by+how+much+you+have+relative&oq=research+suggests+that+happiness+vis+a+vis+personal+wealth+is+determined+by+how+much+you+have+relative&aqs=chrome..69i57&sourceid=chrome&es_sm=91&ie=UTF-8 https://www.google.com/search?q=research+suggests+that+happi... [2] http://www.usc.edu/dept/pubrel/trojan_family/winter07/happiness.html http://www.usc.edu/dept/pubrel/trojan_family/winter07/happin... [3] http://vanneman.umd.edu/socy699J/GrahamP02.pdf http://vanneman.umd.edu/socy699J/GrahamP02.pdf [4] http://isites.harvard.edu/fs/docs/icb.topic620591.files/Indices_of_Wellbeing/HSPH.pdf http://isites.harvard.edu/fs/docs/icb.topic620591.files/Indi... [5] Relative Income Hypothesis. I will leave the googling of this as an exercise for the reader.

jjoonathan 12y ago

What fraction of that is due to demographics? Discouraged workers are bad news, but old people retiring isn't bad news.

fludlight 12y ago
There's a chart on page 10: Identifying Factors behind the Decline in the U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate http://macrothink.org/journal/index.php/ber/article/download/3370/2921 http://macrothink.org/journal/index.php/ber/article/download...
- YokoZar 12y ago
  As a brief summary, as of 2012 the decline in labor force participation rate was about 1/3 due to demographic shifts and 2/3 due to the business cycle. The paper notes it was expected to fall even further, however individual "behavior changes" caused it to not fall as far.
  - jaekwon 12y ago
    Most of it was due to "business cycle"? What does that mean?
    - 001sky 12y ago
      The recession triggered changes in organiztion structure accross a wide variety of areas. This led to re-negotiation or termination of previously existing employment contracts. When there is a market failure to re-negotiate such contracts on mutualy agreeable terms, the parties are no longer in an employee/employer relationship. The parties are not in the workforce. Whether they are declared "unemployed" or not is a bit of a shambolic side debate about window dressing.

beeworker 12y ago

When you don't include short-term discouraged workers, it's easier to get better headline numbers even if the overall trend is about the same. Adding an estimate for long-term discouraged workers, it's not quite as clear that unemployment is reducing: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-chart...

joshuahedlund 12y ago
While I try to take all government-produced estimates with a grain of salt, I and many others consider ShadowStats's mysterious estimates much less reliable, due to a fairly obvious anti-government agenda and the simple infamous fact that they insist inflation is severely underreported despite not raising their subscription price in over 8 years!
prostoalex 12y ago
You'd have to gather some data before bucketing them under "discouraged". One side effect of Affordable Care Act is that it's possible for a 40-year-old corporate employee with savings, family and children, to leave their current job, work on new business and buy an affordable health insurance plan. Previously lack (or low quality) of individual health plans would discourage anybody from leaving their corporate job, even if they accumulated enough savings to do it.

nazgulnarsil 12y ago

I don't buy it. For myself and other employers I know, we're just having an incredibly difficult time hiring low skilled employees. $15 an hour for menial work? Maybe 4-5 responses from craigslist. Contrast this with a couple years ago when there would have been dozens of applicants. Labor seems tight.

acadien 12y ago
That's just anecdotal evidence, what you're experiencing might just be local to your town or the type of work you're offering.
totalrobe 12y ago
Where?
- jjoonathan 12y ago
  Speculation: someplace where $15/hr isn't enough to live even a commuter lifestyle.
ritchiea 12y ago
I don't know what kind of menial positions you're hiring for but I have definitely seen companies with implicit hiring policies that would make it difficult to hire many of the people who are actually in need of menial work for employment. e.g. want menial work? Well you should still at least sort of remind me of the upper middle class/Ivy league types I am hiring for my salaried positions. Even in our current context of an industry dominated by affluent white males I think what I describe above is where race and class discrimination are worst for job seekers.
deleted 12y ago
[deleted]
guessbest 12y ago
Hey, I'm an iOS developer desperately seeking work. I am also a vet, and I've had no luck finding work. Where can I go to get this work? I'll even do menial work.