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> "The U.S. government and international organizations recently announced commitments to support these measures. As these measures are rapidly implemented and s

> "The U.S. government and international organizations recently announced commitments to support these measures. As these measures are rapidly implemented and sustained, the higher projections presented in this report become very unlikely." From the abstract of the report[0] you're citing. Essentially, it's rising exponentially (at smaller numbers) right now so of course if you extrapolate over long enough you're going to get a big scary number. The situation is bad, but we still haven't even engaged the outbreak with anything close to full force yet (a valid indictment on policy makers, not the situation). There's a difference between spreading caution and FUD, let's try and avoid the second. [0] http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/su6303a1.htm?s_cid=su6303a1_w http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/su6303a1.htm?s_cid=... (cool read)

nl 12y ago
This is true, but it is still reasonable to discuss current infection rates. As you note, we still haven't even engaged the outbreak with anything close to full force yet. Until we see the effects of that engagement it makes complete sense to look at what is happening right now, not what countermeasures might or might not achieve.
- socceroos 12y ago
  I roll D20 to cast Nuke From Orbit.
  - smoyer 12y ago
    This is quite an insensitive thing to say ... or maybe just an insensitive thing to say what everyone is wondering anyway. We don't have a cure ... and won't have one in time to help (almost) anyone who's contaminated in this outbreak. There's really not much we can do except to contain the virus (if we can do that). I don't necessary want to be nuked from orbit, but if I were to contract this illness I'd also rather not linger towards an almost certain death. I know it sounds a bit fatalistic, but why be an organ donor, draft a living will (etc) if you don't consider that one day you may perhaps die? And the truth is that most of us are unable to help the current situation in even the simplest way. Those of us who have a suitable belief system can only pray.
    - a_c_s 12y ago
      The chance of death with proper treatment is roughly 40%: so while certainly terrifying, it is far from a certain death.
    - socceroos 12y ago
      It was only meant as a joke, not an actual suggestion. There are far more effective ways to contain Ebola than to introduce nuclear warfare.
djcapelis 12y ago
The US recently announced a commitment to building 1,700 beds over an undefined time period. (They got on the ground and started fairly quickly. They're totally moving fast, but it's still hard and it takes time.) The WHO report as of Sept 24th estimates that Liberia alone is 1,550 short of what is needed for treating patients. That was last week. What do you think it's going to look like in a month? I think if you look at the numbers you'll see this massive scaling up the CDC is referencing isn't getting ahead of things, it's barely keeping up. The numbers are really quite bad and the CDC estimates shouldn't be taken lightly. Basically the problem is with an epidemic that is growing exponentially, you have to scale your response exponentially just to keep your current rate of growth. To actually make it go down? You have to scale even faster.
yardie 12y ago
Those policy makers are people too. And just like you they think "it's not that bad". And on top of that when the CDC (the experts in this shit) is trying to make projections, they are discounted as spreading FUD!
csbrooks 12y ago
Don't epidemics generally spread exponentially? Is it normal for that growth rate to slow as the size of the epidemic increases? (Honest question, not being sarcastic.)

nl 12y ago

This is true, but it is still reasonable to discuss current infection rates. As you note, we still haven't even engaged the outbreak with anything close to full force yet. Until we see the effects of that engagement it makes complete sense to look at what is happening right now, not what countermeasures might or might not achieve.

socceroos 12y ago
I roll D20 to cast Nuke From Orbit.
- smoyer 12y ago
  This is quite an insensitive thing to say ... or maybe just an insensitive thing to say what everyone is wondering anyway. We don't have a cure ... and won't have one in time to help (almost) anyone who's contaminated in this outbreak. There's really not much we can do except to contain the virus (if we can do that). I don't necessary want to be nuked from orbit, but if I were to contract this illness I'd also rather not linger towards an almost certain death. I know it sounds a bit fatalistic, but why be an organ donor, draft a living will (etc) if you don't consider that one day you may perhaps die? And the truth is that most of us are unable to help the current situation in even the simplest way. Those of us who have a suitable belief system can only pray.
  - a_c_s 12y ago
    The chance of death with proper treatment is roughly 40%: so while certainly terrifying, it is far from a certain death.
  - socceroos 12y ago
    It was only meant as a joke, not an actual suggestion. There are far more effective ways to contain Ebola than to introduce nuclear warfare.

djcapelis 12y ago

The US recently announced a commitment to building 1,700 beds over an undefined time period. (They got on the ground and started fairly quickly. They're totally moving fast, but it's still hard and it takes time.) The WHO report as of Sept 24th estimates that Liberia alone is 1,550 short of what is needed for treating patients. That was last week. What do you think it's going to look like in a month? I think if you look at the numbers you'll see this massive scaling up the CDC is referencing isn't getting ahead of things, it's barely keeping up. The numbers are really quite bad and the CDC estimates shouldn't be taken lightly. Basically the problem is with an epidemic that is growing exponentially, you have to scale your response exponentially just to keep your current rate of growth. To actually make it go down? You have to scale even faster.

yardie 12y ago

Those policy makers are people too. And just like you they think "it's not that bad". And on top of that when the CDC (the experts in this shit) is trying to make projections, they are discounted as spreading FUD!

csbrooks 12y ago

Don't epidemics generally spread exponentially? Is it normal for that growth rate to slow as the size of the epidemic increases? (Honest question, not being sarcastic.)