4 ms·

Hi, I'm in the freaking-out crowd... Everyone with the "stay calm" attitude is lucky. This whole virus seems like such a "matter of time" situation. #1 final

by dpcan 12y ago

Hi, I'm in the freaking-out crowd... Everyone with the "stay calm" attitude is lucky. This whole virus seems like such a "matter of time" situation. #1 finally showed up in the U.S. Do you really think it will just stay at 1? What are they doing with the beds he slept on, the towels he used after a shower, the glasses he drank out of? Did he go to a restaurant? A ball game? Who knows? How much time do we have until it's in a school, on a subway, or your neighbor has it. Nobody even knows what to do. The first thing Americans do when they get sick is GO TO THE STORE. They go get some over-the-counter med. Literally, the first thing people in this country are going to do is go out and expose more people once symptoms start to appear. Bodily fluids. A sweaty, feverish person is going to touch a door handle, counter, and anything else along the way. We won't even be able to pump gas without rubber gloves. My checker at Fred Meyer today blew her nose and proceeded to touch every one of my groceries and scan them. It was disgusting. I literally sterilized yogurt containers when I got home. People have no sense of how to keep their germs to themselves. Ebola starts with fever and vomiting and diarrhea, from what I've read. How are our sewer treatment facilities going to fare? Seriously, this is going to become a nightmare.

HillRat 12y ago
Let me set your mind at ease: I was actually at the hospital in question all day today (disclaimer: non-medical personnel, just coincidence) and I was in more danger from the sushi at dinner than the Ebola in the ICU. Yes, there is a small chance of a multifocal outbreak, though CDC has moved quickly to identify and isolate potential contacts. There is an infinitesimal but still nonzero chance of an honest-to-god epidemic. But medical institutions and the federal government have wargamed all sorts of epidemic scenarios in the decade and a half of OMG ANTHRAX/SMALLPOX/H-N-SOMETHING-SOMETHING panic we've endured. Even in the (vanishingly unlikely) worst case scenario, state and local authorities have extremely expansive authorities to impose and enforce isolation and quarantines, violation of which (in Texas) is a third-degree felony. (CDC, under HHS delegation, can also impose quarantines to prevent interstate spread of disease, but generally this is left up to the state.) Dallas and surrounding communities could enforce a quarantine and let the outbreak burn out that way, although the economic cost would be enormous. But even mid-tier nations like Nigeria -- which spends per-capita 1% of what the US does on its health system, and which has what could be charitably described as a less-effective government -- have been able to stop Ebola cold with far less drastic action. In truth, the greater threat comes from citizens who could mob doctors' offices and ERs, demanding nonexistent ZMAPP cocktails for garden-variety seasonal flu symptoms. Unsurprisingly, there's not much medical surge capacity in most hospitals, and beds and labs are in chronically short supply. Health system resource consumption by scared but non-sick patients is a far more likely cause of mortality than an Ebola outbreak.
- dpcan 12y ago
  Unfortunately, this doesn't put me at ease. Of course being in the same building doesn't matter, and you may be fine. But if you were one of the doctors who saw him the first time he came in, and then proceeded to help other patients that day after assuming this guy just had the flu... well, that's another story. Or maybe if you rode in the same ambulance he did over the next couple days. The thing is, the number of people who may have just been exposed is huge, and how many of those will get caught before it spreads even further?
  - DanBC 12y ago
    > But if you were one of the doctors who saw him the first time he came in, and then proceeded to help other patients that day after assuming this guy just had the flu... well, that's another story. He was infectious. That doctor should be wearing gloves and washing hands between each patient and that doctor would not be infectious until a few days after contact.
    - hga 12y ago
      "Should", but healthcare workers are infamous for not doing this ... and washing your hands that often would damage your skin, perhaps too much to continue working in the field.
    - dpcan 12y ago
      The doctors "should" have gotten a clear travel history too. I recently went to a doctor, he came in and shook my hand, THEN went to put on hand sanitizer. Then I did too. He said he was sorry. Well, with Ebola, "oops" isn't going to work out too well.

by dpcan 12y ago

HillRat 12y ago

Let me set your mind at ease: I was actually at the hospital in question all day today (disclaimer: non-medical personnel, just coincidence) and I was in more danger from the sushi at dinner than the Ebola in the ICU. Yes, there is a small chance of a multifocal outbreak, though CDC has moved quickly to identify and isolate potential contacts. There is an infinitesimal but still nonzero chance of an honest-to-god epidemic. But medical institutions and the federal government have wargamed all sorts of epidemic scenarios in the decade and a half of OMG ANTHRAX/SMALLPOX/H-N-SOMETHING-SOMETHING panic we've endured. Even in the (vanishingly unlikely) worst case scenario, state and local authorities have extremely expansive authorities to impose and enforce isolation and quarantines, violation of which (in Texas) is a third-degree felony. (CDC, under HHS delegation, can also impose quarantines to prevent interstate spread of disease, but generally this is left up to the state.) Dallas and surrounding communities could enforce a quarantine and let the outbreak burn out that way, although the economic cost would be enormous. But even mid-tier nations like Nigeria -- which spends per-capita 1% of what the US does on its health system, and which has what could be charitably described as a less-effective government -- have been able to stop Ebola cold with far less drastic action. In truth, the greater threat comes from citizens who could mob doctors' offices and ERs, demanding nonexistent ZMAPP cocktails for garden-variety seasonal flu symptoms. Unsurprisingly, there's not much medical surge capacity in most hospitals, and beds and labs are in chronically short supply. Health system resource consumption by scared but non-sick patients is a far more likely cause of mortality than an Ebola outbreak.

dpcan 12y ago
Unfortunately, this doesn't put me at ease. Of course being in the same building doesn't matter, and you may be fine. But if you were one of the doctors who saw him the first time he came in, and then proceeded to help other patients that day after assuming this guy just had the flu... well, that's another story. Or maybe if you rode in the same ambulance he did over the next couple days. The thing is, the number of people who may have just been exposed is huge, and how many of those will get caught before it spreads even further?
- DanBC 12y ago
  > But if you were one of the doctors who saw him the first time he came in, and then proceeded to help other patients that day after assuming this guy just had the flu... well, that's another story. He was infectious. That doctor should be wearing gloves and washing hands between each patient and that doctor would not be infectious until a few days after contact.
  - hga 12y ago
    "Should", but healthcare workers are infamous for not doing this ... and washing your hands that often would damage your skin, perhaps too much to continue working in the field.
  - dpcan 12y ago
    The doctors "should" have gotten a clear travel history too. I recently went to a doctor, he came in and shook my hand, THEN went to put on hand sanitizer. Then I did too. He said he was sorry. Well, with Ebola, "oops" isn't going to work out too well.