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In the short term yes and I wouldn't expect Mars colonization to have an impact on our the survival of our species for at least 100 years. But in the very long

In the short term yes and I wouldn't expect Mars colonization to have an impact on our the survival of our species for at least 100 years. But in the very long run the sun isn't going to last forever and if resource exhaustion turns out to be a real problem there might only be a limited window for us to get started.

slig 12y ago
> But in the very long run the sun isn't going to last forever In the very long run we're doomed anyway http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_death_of_the_universe http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_death_of_the_universe
- Ja3x2PY1Cs4AE 12y ago
  That's not sure at all - there's no telling how far technology will take us. Eventually, we might be able to forge entirely new universes, or to move to younger ones. (completely unrelated, but I'm getting tired of creating throwaway accounts on this site each time I want to post a new comment - why oh why is anonymous commenting disabled ?)
  - chc 12y ago
    Because Hacker News wants people to stand behind their comments. Lack of accountability is not a desirable feature if you're trying to encourage civilized discussion.
  - dragonwriter 12y ago
    > completely unrelated, but I'm getting tired of creating throwaway accounts on this site each time I want to post a new comment Then stop doing it.
lutusp 12y ago
> But in the very long run the sun isn't going to last forever and if resource exhaustion turns out to be a real problem there might only be a limited window for us to get started. I can't believe I'm still hearing "sun isn't going to last forever" and "us" juxtaposed, as though one had any bearing on the other. 1. Humans have existed as a distinct species for about 200,000 years. 2. Given the process of natural selection, in another 200,000 years we will have been replaced by something different than us -- not necessarily bigger or smaller, smarter or dumber, just different. 3. In a million years, there will be nothing remotely resembling human beings -- it will be as though we had never existed. But let's argue that there's some hint of us after a million years: 4. The sun will become a red giant and envelop the earth in somewhere north of five billion years, which is five thousand times longer than we can possibly exist as an identifiably distinct species, using the optimistic forecast of item (4) above. We need to have some perspective about our relationship with nature. Evolution teaches us that we're not at all exceptional, but are a random answer to nature's constantly changing question, which is "who is fit today?" This idea that we're somehow ordained inheritors of the planet, is to me a 21st century leftover of the religious outlook, which is that humans aren't just another species, competing in an open-ended contest with no entry requirements or registration fees. Here today, gone tomorrow. We're not special, and life is not an ordained right, but a gift. I intend to appreciate my unearned gift. How about you?
- dragonwriter 12y ago
  > 1. Humans have existed as a distinct species for about 200,000 years. No, that's wrong. Humans, genus Homo, have existed for about 2.5 million years; the subspecies H. sapiens sapiens for about 200,000. The species H. sapiens is a little less clear, there's debate over whether it starts around 200,000 years ago (and includes just a few subspecies, notably H. sapiens sapiens and H. sapiens idaltu) or whether it starts around 500,000 years ago and includes several others. > 2. Given the process of natural selection, in another 200,000 years we will have been replaced by something different than us -- not necessarily bigger or smaller, smarter or dumber, just different. Unlikely; while speciation requires time, time alone is not generally enough, and even if it were, there is no reason to expect the time from the last speciation event to now (whether 500,000 years or 200,000) to be the time from now to the next speciation event. (Colonization of Mars -- if Earth-Mars interaction is limited once the colony is established -- might actually accelerate that, since the one thing that does contribute to speciation is geographical separation which prevents significant interbreeding between segments of the wider population.) > 3. In a million years, there will be nothing remotely resembling human beings -- it will be as though we had never existed. Human beings, genus Homo, have been around for two and half million years already, and H. sapiens (whether you take the narrower or broader view of the species) would be a flash-in-the-pan as species of its size, lifespan, and geographic range are concerned if it wasn't around for several million more (H. erectus -- with competing members of the genus Homo around on Earth for pretty much its whole time of existence -- lasted about 1.75 million years), and things "remotely resembling human beings" have been around significantly longer -- and can be expected to be around significantly longer than humans in the strict sense, unless humans are wiped out completely in a cataclysm rather than subjected to the kind of pressures that produce speciation. > The sun will become a red giant and envelop the earth in somewhere north of five billion years, which is five thousand times longer than we can possibly exist as an identifiably distinct species, using the optimistic forecast of item (4) above. The million year forecast isn't "optimistic"; while it may be unlikely that human beings would be around for 5 billion years, your particular argument for that point is, well, based on one controversial claim and a couple of unjustified claims that don't follow from that controversial claim.
  - 12y ago
astrodust 12y ago
If we can't get our shit together in the billions of years it'll take the sun to sputter out, we don't deserve to live. Honestly, are you really going to be disappointed if, after a few billion years, humanity runs out of gas? We'd have done be the most successful species in the history of species.
- lutusp 12y ago
  > Honestly, are you really going to be disappointed if, after a few billion years, humanity runs out of gas? What? Humanity will have entirely disappeared in a million years, and in a billion years we won't even be a distant memory. Please try to remember that we've only been a distinct species for 200,000 years, and in another 200,000 years, chances are we will have been replaced by something different. In a million years, five times as long, we will not exist in any form whatsoever. In a billion years, five thousand times as long, creatures who have forgotten about us will themselves be forgotten. It is the height of absurdity to think that a lowly species like us will exist in any form at all even a million years hence. Both us, and all our stellar achievements (like Country & Western music and the Pet Rock), will have completely disappeared.
  - dragonwriter 12y ago
    > Humanity will have entirely disappeared in a million years Even if you mean that in the narrow sense of H. sapiens, rather than humans as genus Homo, that would make H. sapiens a shorter-lived species that H. erectus. If there's a reason to believe that, you haven't provided it. > Please try to remember that we've only been a distinct species for 200,000 years Or 500,000, depending on which view of the relevant taxonomy you take... > and in another 200,000 years, chances are we will have been replaced by something different. There is no factual basis for this claim; particularly, even if we except your POV on how long we have been around so far as a species, it does not follow that the same amount of time in the future would see us replaced. > In a million years, five times as long, we will not exist in any form whatsoever. Again, you provide no reason to believe this. H. erectus was around for 1.75 million years. If H. sapiens only lasts as long as H. erectus did, our species would be around -- starting from your 200kYa start date for H. sapiens, another 1.5+ million years. And humans, genus Homo, have been around for over 2.5 million years. > It is the height of absurdity to think that a lowly species like us will exist in any form at all even a million years hence. It really is not. We may be lowly, but a species lasting a mere 1.2-1.5 million years (what H. sapiens would have to last in total to be around a million years hence) is not uncommon at all. Many hominid species have, why wouldn't H. sapiens?

slig 12y ago

> But in the very long run the sun isn't going to last forever In the very long run we're doomed anyway http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_death_of_the_universe http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_death_of_the_universe

Ja3x2PY1Cs4AE 12y ago
That's not sure at all - there's no telling how far technology will take us. Eventually, we might be able to forge entirely new universes, or to move to younger ones. (completely unrelated, but I'm getting tired of creating throwaway accounts on this site each time I want to post a new comment - why oh why is anonymous commenting disabled ?)
- chc 12y ago
  Because Hacker News wants people to stand behind their comments. Lack of accountability is not a desirable feature if you're trying to encourage civilized discussion.
- dragonwriter 12y ago
  > completely unrelated, but I'm getting tired of creating throwaway accounts on this site each time I want to post a new comment Then stop doing it.

lutusp 12y ago

> But in the very long run the sun isn't going to last forever and if resource exhaustion turns out to be a real problem there might only be a limited window for us to get started. I can't believe I'm still hearing "sun isn't going to last forever" and "us" juxtaposed, as though one had any bearing on the other. 1. Humans have existed as a distinct species for about 200,000 years. 2. Given the process of natural selection, in another 200,000 years we will have been replaced by something different than us -- not necessarily bigger or smaller, smarter or dumber, just different. 3. In a million years, there will be nothing remotely resembling human beings -- it will be as though we had never existed. But let's argue that there's some hint of us after a million years: 4. The sun will become a red giant and envelop the earth in somewhere north of five billion years, which is five thousand times longer than we can possibly exist as an identifiably distinct species, using the optimistic forecast of item (4) above. We need to have some perspective about our relationship with nature. Evolution teaches us that we're not at all exceptional, but are a random answer to nature's constantly changing question, which is "who is fit today?" This idea that we're somehow ordained inheritors of the planet, is to me a 21st century leftover of the religious outlook, which is that humans aren't just another species, competing in an open-ended contest with no entry requirements or registration fees. Here today, gone tomorrow. We're not special, and life is not an ordained right, but a gift. I intend to appreciate my unearned gift. How about you?

dragonwriter 12y ago
> 1. Humans have existed as a distinct species for about 200,000 years. No, that's wrong. Humans, genus Homo, have existed for about 2.5 million years; the subspecies H. sapiens sapiens for about 200,000. The species H. sapiens is a little less clear, there's debate over whether it starts around 200,000 years ago (and includes just a few subspecies, notably H. sapiens sapiens and H. sapiens idaltu) or whether it starts around 500,000 years ago and includes several others. > 2. Given the process of natural selection, in another 200,000 years we will have been replaced by something different than us -- not necessarily bigger or smaller, smarter or dumber, just different. Unlikely; while speciation requires time, time alone is not generally enough, and even if it were, there is no reason to expect the time from the last speciation event to now (whether 500,000 years or 200,000) to be the time from now to the next speciation event. (Colonization of Mars -- if Earth-Mars interaction is limited once the colony is established -- might actually accelerate that, since the one thing that does contribute to speciation is geographical separation which prevents significant interbreeding between segments of the wider population.) > 3. In a million years, there will be nothing remotely resembling human beings -- it will be as though we had never existed. Human beings, genus Homo, have been around for two and half million years already, and H. sapiens (whether you take the narrower or broader view of the species) would be a flash-in-the-pan as species of its size, lifespan, and geographic range are concerned if it wasn't around for several million more (H. erectus -- with competing members of the genus Homo around on Earth for pretty much its whole time of existence -- lasted about 1.75 million years), and things "remotely resembling human beings" have been around significantly longer -- and can be expected to be around significantly longer than humans in the strict sense, unless humans are wiped out completely in a cataclysm rather than subjected to the kind of pressures that produce speciation. > The sun will become a red giant and envelop the earth in somewhere north of five billion years, which is five thousand times longer than we can possibly exist as an identifiably distinct species, using the optimistic forecast of item (4) above. The million year forecast isn't "optimistic"; while it may be unlikely that human beings would be around for 5 billion years, your particular argument for that point is, well, based on one controversial claim and a couple of unjustified claims that don't follow from that controversial claim.
- 12y ago

astrodust 12y ago

If we can't get our shit together in the billions of years it'll take the sun to sputter out, we don't deserve to live. Honestly, are you really going to be disappointed if, after a few billion years, humanity runs out of gas? We'd have done be the most successful species in the history of species.

lutusp 12y ago
> Honestly, are you really going to be disappointed if, after a few billion years, humanity runs out of gas? What? Humanity will have entirely disappeared in a million years, and in a billion years we won't even be a distant memory. Please try to remember that we've only been a distinct species for 200,000 years, and in another 200,000 years, chances are we will have been replaced by something different. In a million years, five times as long, we will not exist in any form whatsoever. In a billion years, five thousand times as long, creatures who have forgotten about us will themselves be forgotten. It is the height of absurdity to think that a lowly species like us will exist in any form at all even a million years hence. Both us, and all our stellar achievements (like Country & Western music and the Pet Rock), will have completely disappeared.
- dragonwriter 12y ago
  > Humanity will have entirely disappeared in a million years Even if you mean that in the narrow sense of H. sapiens, rather than humans as genus Homo, that would make H. sapiens a shorter-lived species that H. erectus. If there's a reason to believe that, you haven't provided it. > Please try to remember that we've only been a distinct species for 200,000 years Or 500,000, depending on which view of the relevant taxonomy you take... > and in another 200,000 years, chances are we will have been replaced by something different. There is no factual basis for this claim; particularly, even if we except your POV on how long we have been around so far as a species, it does not follow that the same amount of time in the future would see us replaced. > In a million years, five times as long, we will not exist in any form whatsoever. Again, you provide no reason to believe this. H. erectus was around for 1.75 million years. If H. sapiens only lasts as long as H. erectus did, our species would be around -- starting from your 200kYa start date for H. sapiens, another 1.5+ million years. And humans, genus Homo, have been around for over 2.5 million years. > It is the height of absurdity to think that a lowly species like us will exist in any form at all even a million years hence. It really is not. We may be lowly, but a species lasting a mere 1.2-1.5 million years (what H. sapiens would have to last in total to be around a million years hence) is not uncommon at all. Many hominid species have, why wouldn't H. sapiens?