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Relevant, Hindsight Devalues Science: http://lesswrong.com/lw/im/hindsight_devalues_science/ http://lesswrong.com/lw/im/hindsight_devalues_science/ >Daphna Bar
by Houshalter 12y ago
Relevant, Hindsight Devalues Science: http://lesswrong.com/lw/im/hindsight_devalues_science/ http://lesswrong.com/lw/im/hindsight_devalues_science/
>Daphna Baratz exposed college students to pairs of supposed findings, one true ("In prosperous times people spend a larger portion of their income than during a recession") and one the truth's opposite. In both sides of the pair, students rated the supposed finding as what they "would have predicted". Perfectly standard hindsight bias.
>Which leads people to think they have no need for science, because they "could have predicted" that.
- otakucode 12y agoAnd if the science contradicts what their intuition tells them is correct - they disbelieve the science and cling to their intuition. Additionally, the progress of civilization can be measured most accurately by seeing which threats and dangers are removed from peoples lives. So when these people wish to trust their intuition rather than science, they are vindicated - they are protected by the umbrella of progress that intellectuals before them erected. So they now have the luxury of sitting back and decrying the costs of maintaining the infrastructure that protects them as unnecessary. This fuels the vaccine nonsense, fears of GM crops, fears of wifi signals in England, and all sorts of other similar issues. I expect these things will continue to increase until eventually major portions of the infrastructure of modern society will be dismantled or allowed to decay because no one believes they are necessary.