4 ms·

I've mentioned this before on other threads, but it is worth repeating here. Thiel is basically making the same claims (but with less evidence and I think less

I've mentioned this before on other threads, but it is worth repeating here. Thiel is basically making the same claims (but with less evidence and I think less rationality) that Tyler Cowen (an economist) has been making for several years. Cowen's views are more nuanced (and in my opinion more reasonable) than Thiel's. Cowen's book "Average Is Over" is an excellent distillation of his thesis.

mindcrime 12y ago
Funny you would mention that. I wasn't aware of any connection (thematic or otherwise) between Thiel's work and Average is Over, but by happenstance, I had the latter book in my hand just a couple of days ago. It caught my eye on the shelf at B&N, and I picked it up, skimmed around a bit, and thought "I should read this". But, for whatever reason, I didn't wind up buying a copy right then and there. Now I think I'll go back and get it and give it a read. Also, while we're talking books, I'll throw in a plug for The Origin of Wealth by Eric D. Beinhocker. It's a fascinating read for anybody interested in economics, capitalism, etc. It's not targeted at entrepreneurs per-se, but the principles in there have some interesting implications (if true).
misiti3780 12y ago
I dont know - I read them both - I thought both books were pretty interesting ... although I thought that Average is Over focused too much on the Chess examples. Zero to One was good because it was short - I thought the only real "new" big idea was software monopolies can be "positive"
- davidw 12y ago
  I think the thing about monopolies being positive, or at least not as bad as whatever else (regulating them) is pretty standard thinking for a certain brand of libertarian, which Thiel is.
  - jeffreyrogers 12y ago
    I saw it more as a rehash of Michael Porter's idea that you should compete to be different rather than "better", instead of the approval of monopolies that many people have seen it as.
kartman 12y ago
i used to read tyler cowens blog a long time ago and visit it sometimes. started out impressed but soon realized he is good as an aggregator of interesting bits. if even the sentences happen to be the same, i prefer to listen to someone who has real world experience building companies vs just economists whose being wrong has no direct impact on themselves. skin in the game and all that.
- Mvandenbergh 12y ago
  There's a balance between the value that comes from having experienced it yourself and the value from being able to step back and generalise the experience of other people. First-hand accounts always run the risk of generalising the particular but academic accounts run the risk of being too general. In both cases the problem comes from falling in love with your own model and not paying enough attention to inconvenient data.
- jeffreyrogers 12y ago
  The one problem I had with Thiel is that he seems to conflate what worked for him with what works in general. Cowen, as an outside observer, has a more objective point of view.
cossatot 12y ago
I haven't read "Average is Over" but I think that Cowen's "The Great Stagnation" covered a lot of the same ground. It was informative and reasonably persuasive, even if one doesn't share his prescriptions for fixing things. It presents the idea of a slowdown in innovation and educational progress causing a slowdown in economic growth, particularly for the median white guy. I don't think Cowen was the first to come up with it, but the book was definitely responsible for getting it talked about regularly. Well worth the quick read.
- jeffreyrogers 12y ago
  Good point, I probably should have mentioned The Great Stagnation as well since the two books cover very similar topics. Average Is Over is newer though, so probably better reflects Cowen's current thinking.
dmeb 12y ago
Happy to see a Tyler Cowen recommendation. Thiel is still very much worth reading though. FWIW, Tyler Cowen would say the same; "The Great Stagnation", his book before "Average is Over", is dedicated to Thiel.
greenpinguin 12y ago
thanks for this, can't wait to dive into this book too
DaniFong 12y ago
Thiel is actually diametrically opposed to Tyler Cowen on one important point: He doesn't believe that the issue is at all that the low hanging fruit are gone. "I would argue that there was never any low-hanging fruit; it was always of intermediate height and the question was, were people reaching for it or not" - Peter Thiel http://www.technologyreview.com/qa/530901/technology-stalled-in-1970/ http://www.technologyreview.com/qa/530901/technology-stalled...
- jeffreyrogers 12y ago
  Good point, I tend to be more on Cowen's side with regard to this, but there is definitely room for debate about who is right.
  - DaniFong 12y ago
    I show my side of the debate by making technology that could have been developed 100 years ago, and was desperately needed then as now.

mindcrime 12y ago

Funny you would mention that. I wasn't aware of any connection (thematic or otherwise) between Thiel's work and Average is Over, but by happenstance, I had the latter book in my hand just a couple of days ago. It caught my eye on the shelf at B&N, and I picked it up, skimmed around a bit, and thought "I should read this". But, for whatever reason, I didn't wind up buying a copy right then and there. Now I think I'll go back and get it and give it a read. Also, while we're talking books, I'll throw in a plug for The Origin of Wealth by Eric D. Beinhocker. It's a fascinating read for anybody interested in economics, capitalism, etc. It's not targeted at entrepreneurs per-se, but the principles in there have some interesting implications (if true).

misiti3780 12y ago

I dont know - I read them both - I thought both books were pretty interesting ... although I thought that Average is Over focused too much on the Chess examples. Zero to One was good because it was short - I thought the only real "new" big idea was software monopolies can be "positive"

davidw 12y ago
I think the thing about monopolies being positive, or at least not as bad as whatever else (regulating them) is pretty standard thinking for a certain brand of libertarian, which Thiel is.
- jeffreyrogers 12y ago
  I saw it more as a rehash of Michael Porter's idea that you should compete to be different rather than "better", instead of the approval of monopolies that many people have seen it as.

kartman 12y ago

i used to read tyler cowens blog a long time ago and visit it sometimes. started out impressed but soon realized he is good as an aggregator of interesting bits. if even the sentences happen to be the same, i prefer to listen to someone who has real world experience building companies vs just economists whose being wrong has no direct impact on themselves. skin in the game and all that.

Mvandenbergh 12y ago
There's a balance between the value that comes from having experienced it yourself and the value from being able to step back and generalise the experience of other people. First-hand accounts always run the risk of generalising the particular but academic accounts run the risk of being too general. In both cases the problem comes from falling in love with your own model and not paying enough attention to inconvenient data.
jeffreyrogers 12y ago
The one problem I had with Thiel is that he seems to conflate what worked for him with what works in general. Cowen, as an outside observer, has a more objective point of view.

cossatot 12y ago

I haven't read "Average is Over" but I think that Cowen's "The Great Stagnation" covered a lot of the same ground. It was informative and reasonably persuasive, even if one doesn't share his prescriptions for fixing things. It presents the idea of a slowdown in innovation and educational progress causing a slowdown in economic growth, particularly for the median white guy. I don't think Cowen was the first to come up with it, but the book was definitely responsible for getting it talked about regularly. Well worth the quick read.

jeffreyrogers 12y ago
Good point, I probably should have mentioned The Great Stagnation as well since the two books cover very similar topics. Average Is Over is newer though, so probably better reflects Cowen's current thinking.

dmeb 12y ago

Happy to see a Tyler Cowen recommendation. Thiel is still very much worth reading though. FWIW, Tyler Cowen would say the same; "The Great Stagnation", his book before "Average is Over", is dedicated to Thiel.

greenpinguin 12y ago

thanks for this, can't wait to dive into this book too

DaniFong 12y ago

Thiel is actually diametrically opposed to Tyler Cowen on one important point: He doesn't believe that the issue is at all that the low hanging fruit are gone. "I would argue that there was never any low-hanging fruit; it was always of intermediate height and the question was, were people reaching for it or not" - Peter Thiel http://www.technologyreview.com/qa/530901/technology-stalled-in-1970/ http://www.technologyreview.com/qa/530901/technology-stalled...

jeffreyrogers 12y ago
Good point, I tend to be more on Cowen's side with regard to this, but there is definitely room for debate about who is right.
- DaniFong 12y ago
  I show my side of the debate by making technology that could have been developed 100 years ago, and was desperately needed then as now.