Doesn't this assume that SpaceX will succeed at reducing launch costs? If you look at volume, I don't see what you're getting at here. Almost nobody except fo

Doesn't this assume that SpaceX will succeed at reducing launch costs? If you look at volume, I don't see what you're getting at here. Almost nobody except for maybe Ariane V is operating at capacity. Delta IV tried selling commercially for years, they've yet to have one sale. Torus (I) and Athena were never exactly booked full. A point I believe Antonio Elias made a couple years ago (I quite him a lot...) was that the satellite market is currently quite inelastic. Both when Russian launchers became available to the west, and with cheap Chinese launchers hit the market, global launch rates didn't really increase. Clients just moved around, and pocketed the difference.