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Yeah, fine. But at a certain point, I can buy a replicator, print out some solar paint, and disconnect from the grid. All I need now is small amounts of raw mat

Yeah, fine. But at a certain point, I can buy a replicator, print out some solar paint, and disconnect from the grid. All I need now is small amounts of raw materials to top up the inevitable losses from my recycling loop. Your large-scale production will certainly be cheaper, but it will be possible for an individual to build, say, a fully automated chip-fab given enough raw materials. So large-scale production will be instantiated ad-hoc on a needs basis. I'm assuming that the last bastion of human labour will be creative work, since that'll have sentimental value even when the robots get better at it.

cousin_it 17y ago
It's entirely possible to bake your own bread or grow your own vegetables today, do you do that? Food independence! I just don't see why division of labor would decrease. In the past it's pretty much always increased with growth of technology. As Robin Hanson said in "Dreams of Autarky" http://hanson.gmu.edu/dreamautarky.html http://hanson.gmu.edu/dreamautarky.html : I suspect that future software, manufacturing plants, and colonies will typically be much more dependent on everyone else than dreams of autonomy imagine. Yes, small isolated entities are getting more capable, but so are small non-isolated entities, and the later remain far more capable than the former. The riches that come from a worldwide division of labor have rightly seduced us away from many of our dreams of autarky. We may fantasize about dropping out of the rat race and living a life of ease on some tropical island. But very few of us ever do.
- antipaganda 17y ago
  Grow your own vegetables? Bake bread? That takes HOURS. But with a replicator/food printer/reprap, it's a push-button process. No work involved. Makes a difference, eh? Ever lived in the third world? You don't have washing machines, you get your clothes washed down the street. In the first world, you just chuck them in your washer/dryer, push a few buttons, wait an hour. See the difference we're talking here? One way requires someone to swoosh clothes around with a stick all day. The other requires a designer, a few supervisors at the factory, an assembly line, and a washing machine repairman, all of whom ADDED TOGETHER still don't work as many hours per washed knicker as the laundry people do in the third world. Of course we'll still be dependent on others. Do you think the average schlub will be designing his own printer templates? Nah, he'll download them from the Internet like everyone else.

cousin_it 17y ago

It's entirely possible to bake your own bread or grow your own vegetables today, do you do that? Food independence! I just don't see why division of labor would decrease. In the past it's pretty much always increased with growth of technology. As Robin Hanson said in "Dreams of Autarky" http://hanson.gmu.edu/dreamautarky.html http://hanson.gmu.edu/dreamautarky.html : I suspect that future software, manufacturing plants, and colonies will typically be much more dependent on everyone else than dreams of autonomy imagine. Yes, small isolated entities are getting more capable, but so are small non-isolated entities, and the later remain far more capable than the former. The riches that come from a worldwide division of labor have rightly seduced us away from many of our dreams of autarky. We may fantasize about dropping out of the rat race and living a life of ease on some tropical island. But very few of us ever do.

antipaganda 17y ago
Grow your own vegetables? Bake bread? That takes HOURS. But with a replicator/food printer/reprap, it's a push-button process. No work involved. Makes a difference, eh? Ever lived in the third world? You don't have washing machines, you get your clothes washed down the street. In the first world, you just chuck them in your washer/dryer, push a few buttons, wait an hour. See the difference we're talking here? One way requires someone to swoosh clothes around with a stick all day. The other requires a designer, a few supervisors at the factory, an assembly line, and a washing machine repairman, all of whom ADDED TOGETHER still don't work as many hours per washed knicker as the laundry people do in the third world. Of course we'll still be dependent on others. Do you think the average schlub will be designing his own printer templates? Nah, he'll download them from the Internet like everyone else.