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Where would one even go to place such a bet? Also, how can you assess the counter-party risk here? You're letting someone hold the equivalent of $1.4MM for som

by yeldarb 12y ago

Where would one even go to place such a bet? Also, how can you assess the counter-party risk here? You're letting someone hold the equivalent of $1.4MM for some number of weeks/months; there has to be some risk that they will default on what is effectively a loan. Can you purchase an insurance policy on something like this?

ascorbic 12y ago
William Hill is listed on the London Stock Exchange, with a market cap of over £4bn. I think they're good for it.
deleted 12y ago
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dublinben 12y ago
>Where would one even go to place such a bet? William Hill, one of the largest bookmakers in the UK. It's mentioned in the article.
notahacker 12y ago
In this case they went to William Hill, an 80 year-old publicly listed and regulated company that made >£200M in profit off £1.5bn revenue last year. The counterparty risk was negligible, especially compared with the rather high risk the pollsters all made systematic errors in their surveys (it's not particularly difficult to imagine a scenario in which people with a stated intention to vote for independence turned out to be much more likely to actually bother to vote; actually the main reason why I didn't try the lower risk, lower return version of this bet and place all my liquid funds in a FTSE100 index fund or ETF the day before)
goatforce5 12y ago
UK bookmakers will take bets on pretty much anything. Here's a list of some of the 'novelty' bets going at the moment: http://www.oddschecker.com/novelty http://www.oddschecker.com/novelty Maybe you have a time travelling machine and you know that aliens will show themselves in 2016? Quick! Place a bet! http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/novelty-bets/alien-existence http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/novelty-bets/a... But it gets more specific than that. Here's someone who had a bet accepted that his 9 year old son would end up playing for Manchester United football club: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2209493/Ryan-Tunnicliffes-father-wins-10-000-placing-bet-son-play-team.html http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2209493/Ryan-Tunnicl...

by yeldarb 12y ago

ascorbic 12y ago

William Hill is listed on the London Stock Exchange, with a market cap of over £4bn. I think they're good for it.

deleted 12y ago

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dublinben 12y ago

>Where would one even go to place such a bet? William Hill, one of the largest bookmakers in the UK. It's mentioned in the article.

notahacker 12y ago

In this case they went to William Hill, an 80 year-old publicly listed and regulated company that made >£200M in profit off £1.5bn revenue last year. The counterparty risk was negligible, especially compared with the rather high risk the pollsters all made systematic errors in their surveys (it's not particularly difficult to imagine a scenario in which people with a stated intention to vote for independence turned out to be much more likely to actually bother to vote; actually the main reason why I didn't try the lower risk, lower return version of this bet and place all my liquid funds in a FTSE100 index fund or ETF the day before)

goatforce5 12y ago

UK bookmakers will take bets on pretty much anything. Here's a list of some of the 'novelty' bets going at the moment: http://www.oddschecker.com/novelty http://www.oddschecker.com/novelty Maybe you have a time travelling machine and you know that aliens will show themselves in 2016? Quick! Place a bet! http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/novelty-bets/alien-existence http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/novelty-bets/a... But it gets more specific than that. Here's someone who had a bet accepted that his 9 year old son would end up playing for Manchester United football club: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2209493/Ryan-Tunnicliffes-father-wins-10-000-placing-bet-son-play-team.html http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2209493/Ryan-Tunnicl...