> A ton of people have been able to successfully lose weight by paying attention to what and how much they eat. Go to any bodybuilding forum on the Internet and

> A ton of people have been able to successfully lose weight by paying attention to what and how much they eat. Go to any bodybuilding forum on the Internet and look at before-and-after photos and read accounts of how the transformation was accomplished. It really, really isn't rocket science. Survivorship bias. We have no sense of how many failed using the same methodology. The incentives to post results are biased heavily toward the successful end of the spectrum, for both internal and social incentives. More cognitive science, less rocket science.