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What's with the surge of Peter Thiel related soundbites lately? I have no idea where he gets the idea that technology stopped in 1970. A simple example: look a

What's with the surge of Peter Thiel related soundbites lately? I have no idea where he gets the idea that technology stopped in 1970. A simple example: look at how much more efficient internal combustion engines are now than they were in 1970. You can actually drive distances that are in the double digits of miles on a single gallon of gas today. That's a simple, quick example. Saying "we were promised jetpacks and flying cars and that future wasn't delivered," is short sighted and so ridiculously uncreative. Instead we got a global communication system. The world is way smaller now than it would have been with flying cars. I can keep in touch with people across the globe for almost no cost. That is real innovation - few people could even imagine the internet - fewer predicted it and I don't think anyone foresaw the impact it's had on humanity. While Peter Thiel was watching movies with flying cars and jetpacks (which I might argue are uncreative continuations of existing technology) people were solving actual problems in new and incredible ways.

bravo22 12y ago
He has a book coming out I think. Publisher's PR likely.
jboggan 12y ago
Though not a technology that everyone uses everyday, the pace of progress in something like engine design (and in particular, motorcycles) is undeniable and at this point nigh-frightening. A machine that would have beaten $1M+ factory prototypes from 15 years ago can be purchased for $10k and ridden on the street. The amount of acceleration, top-end speed, braking power (!!!), weight reductions, advanced electronic rider aids, reliability, and composite materials in modern motorcycles is just staggering. And it shows no signs of slowing - in fact the recent advances in electronic aids are allowing the engines to be tuned to ridiculous levels that would be un-rideable (for non-champion racers). Two good examples of amazing technology on the safety front: Bosch ABS [0] that allows you to grab the front brake in a banked turn (on every motorcycle to this point this results in an instant crash) and self-deploying airbags for motorcycles [1]. 0 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2h9MVbkpLZQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2h9MVbkpLZQ 1 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlLDtCD7y9c https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlLDtCD7y9c
- rqebmm 12y ago
  I think this is exactly Thiel's point though. We're spending lots of time, effort, and money on incrementally improving things like Engines and Personal Computers and Social Media. Instead, we as a society would be better served focusing those resources on big-picture tasks like Nuclear Engineering, Bioengineering, or Material Sciences. Frankly, I disagree with him because I think we are making these incremental improvements because people want them, they are big enough to be noticeable, and they're easy thanks to all those other incremental improvements. Already we've reached a tipping point with things like mobile computing and social media where there are no big breakthroughs waiting around the corner. Once people accept that they'll start looking to the next sectors that can have big bang-for-your-buck improvements. Whether that's space flight, Nuclear Engineering, Bioengineering or what have you will depend on the incremental advances we are already making.
  - estefan 12y ago
    > Already we've reached a tipping point with things like mobile computing and social media where there are no big breakthroughs waiting around the corner. That's probably what thousands of people said about pots of water boiling over fires before the industrial revolution. How do you know what's around the corner?
pwnna 12y ago
> I can keep in touch with people across the globe for almost no cost. That is real innovation - few people could even imagine the internet - fewer predicted it and I don't think anyone foresaw the impact it's had on humanity. While absolutely true, I still prefer if I could go to anywhere in the world with supersonic aircraft, or go ~1000km within 2~4 hours via highspeed rail network and meet someone in person. Not to say the internet is bad, it is awesome that I can video call friends and family. I'm just not sure if 18B for WhatsApp is worth it.
wil421 12y ago
His PR team must be pretty busy I've seen 5 or 6 articles in the past week alone. I didnt even know who he was before a couple weeks ago. Last time I saw a PR campaign like this was before Yahoo picked up Marissa Mayer...
gatehouse 12y ago
Engine efficiency looks good until you put it next to a chart of oil prices. The amount of ingenuity and dollars being poured into technological research and development is immense and staggering -- and yet keeping in touch might be easier, but if you actually want to touch them -- sure, the flight it will be 25% cheaper than 20 years ago, but you'll be flying cattle class with a complimentary ass grab by the TSA.
- hawkice 12y ago
  Say what you will about the other elements, but surely we are not saying there is a technological reason for the TSA grabbing your ass?
  - gatehouse 12y ago
    Overreaction to blowback from American interference in Middle Eastern politics in order to secure oil supply due to lack of viable new energy sources due to ... Ok -- not really though. The thing about efficiency though is it only goes up to 100%. I actually think that progress in automation and robotics will be what provides an increase in the standard of living over the next 100 years but it is looking like it will be a slow slog compared to the last 100.
- gohrt 12y ago
  You can pay that 25% back to get increased leg room, snacks, and posher treatment.
joshdance 12y ago
He has a book out. http://www.amazon.com/Zero-One-Notes-Startups-Future/dp/0804139296 http://www.amazon.com/Zero-One-Notes-Startups-Future/dp/0804... Standard book marketing.

bravo22 12y ago

He has a book coming out I think. Publisher's PR likely.

jboggan 12y ago

Though not a technology that everyone uses everyday, the pace of progress in something like engine design (and in particular, motorcycles) is undeniable and at this point nigh-frightening. A machine that would have beaten $1M+ factory prototypes from 15 years ago can be purchased for $10k and ridden on the street. The amount of acceleration, top-end speed, braking power (!!!), weight reductions, advanced electronic rider aids, reliability, and composite materials in modern motorcycles is just staggering. And it shows no signs of slowing - in fact the recent advances in electronic aids are allowing the engines to be tuned to ridiculous levels that would be un-rideable (for non-champion racers). Two good examples of amazing technology on the safety front: Bosch ABS [0] that allows you to grab the front brake in a banked turn (on every motorcycle to this point this results in an instant crash) and self-deploying airbags for motorcycles [1]. 0 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2h9MVbkpLZQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2h9MVbkpLZQ 1 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlLDtCD7y9c https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlLDtCD7y9c

rqebmm 12y ago
I think this is exactly Thiel's point though. We're spending lots of time, effort, and money on incrementally improving things like Engines and Personal Computers and Social Media. Instead, we as a society would be better served focusing those resources on big-picture tasks like Nuclear Engineering, Bioengineering, or Material Sciences. Frankly, I disagree with him because I think we are making these incremental improvements because people want them, they are big enough to be noticeable, and they're easy thanks to all those other incremental improvements. Already we've reached a tipping point with things like mobile computing and social media where there are no big breakthroughs waiting around the corner. Once people accept that they'll start looking to the next sectors that can have big bang-for-your-buck improvements. Whether that's space flight, Nuclear Engineering, Bioengineering or what have you will depend on the incremental advances we are already making.
- estefan 12y ago
  > Already we've reached a tipping point with things like mobile computing and social media where there are no big breakthroughs waiting around the corner. That's probably what thousands of people said about pots of water boiling over fires before the industrial revolution. How do you know what's around the corner?

pwnna 12y ago

> I can keep in touch with people across the globe for almost no cost. That is real innovation - few people could even imagine the internet - fewer predicted it and I don't think anyone foresaw the impact it's had on humanity. While absolutely true, I still prefer if I could go to anywhere in the world with supersonic aircraft, or go ~1000km within 2~4 hours via highspeed rail network and meet someone in person. Not to say the internet is bad, it is awesome that I can video call friends and family. I'm just not sure if 18B for WhatsApp is worth it.

wil421 12y ago

His PR team must be pretty busy I've seen 5 or 6 articles in the past week alone. I didnt even know who he was before a couple weeks ago. Last time I saw a PR campaign like this was before Yahoo picked up Marissa Mayer...

gatehouse 12y ago

Engine efficiency looks good until you put it next to a chart of oil prices. The amount of ingenuity and dollars being poured into technological research and development is immense and staggering -- and yet keeping in touch might be easier, but if you actually want to touch them -- sure, the flight it will be 25% cheaper than 20 years ago, but you'll be flying cattle class with a complimentary ass grab by the TSA.

hawkice 12y ago
Say what you will about the other elements, but surely we are not saying there is a technological reason for the TSA grabbing your ass?
- gatehouse 12y ago
  Overreaction to blowback from American interference in Middle Eastern politics in order to secure oil supply due to lack of viable new energy sources due to ... Ok -- not really though. The thing about efficiency though is it only goes up to 100%. I actually think that progress in automation and robotics will be what provides an increase in the standard of living over the next 100 years but it is looking like it will be a slow slog compared to the last 100.
gohrt 12y ago
You can pay that 25% back to get increased leg room, snacks, and posher treatment.

joshdance 12y ago

He has a book out. http://www.amazon.com/Zero-One-Notes-Startups-Future/dp/0804139296 http://www.amazon.com/Zero-One-Notes-Startups-Future/dp/0804... Standard book marketing.