4 ms·

I think we're at the top of an S curve. And it's reflected in the stock market: http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price/ http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price/ Aft

I think we're at the top of an S curve. And it's reflected in the stock market: http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price/ http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price/ After 6 years of 0% interest rate, we've clawed our way back to the dot-com bubble, and no higher. Our foot is completely down on the gas pedal, and we're hardly getting anywhere. What will the next S curve be? Space? AI? I'm not sure, but as things stand, I can't help but chuckle remorsefully when I think back to the exuberance I felt when I read my first Kurzweil book.

tbolse 12y ago
Interesting idea to use the framework of S curves on this observation. But I think that the typical S curve model will not work on big innovations that are not disruptive towards or at least strongly related to each other in terms of use cases. What you mean is rather the concept of "Kondratiev Waves" [1] [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave