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How the FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast Model Works
- Kortaggio 12y ago"A good model should be probabilistic, not deterministic." This is probably the most important thing I've learned about modelling. One of the biggest dangers in sharing results from a statistical analysis with laypeople is that they will interpret the exact numerical answer as evidence of certainty in your predictions. Often times it's as important how a model is presented as how a model is built.