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In a prediction marketplace there are predictions that are more successful or less successful, resulting in more or less profit for the predictor. While the res
by danboarder 12y ago
In a prediction marketplace there are predictions that are more successful or less successful, resulting in more or less profit for the predictor. While the result may be binary, the forecast intelligence is useful in that it contains trend data that provides better predictions than any one forecaster can provide. Further, the outcomes of many individual prediction questions are multifaceted rather than binary, with four, five or more possible outcomes.
- lutusp 12y agoYes, and without rigorous scientific controls, predictions can be made to look much, much better than they really are. The study being discussed didn't even perform a statistical analysis based on the null hypothesis or produce a p-factor -- the possibility that the result came about because of chance. These are basic to science, and in their absence, the result is anecdote, not science. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P-value http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P-value Quote: "In statistical significance testing, the p-value is the probability of obtaining a test statistic result at least as extreme or as close to the one that was actually observed, assuming that the null hypothesis is true." Chance occurrences can be made to look very convincing. Consider the "Miracle Man" scheme used in investing -- on first hearing about it, many people assume it's not possible: http://www.arachnoid.com/equities_myths/index.html#Miracle_Man http://www.arachnoid.com/equities_myths/index.html#Miracle_M...