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Even though I wish it were true, I'm not sure the decline in crime really indicates greater safety. For instance, one major contribution to the decrease in the

Even though I wish it were true, I'm not sure the decline in crime really indicates greater safety. For instance, one major contribution to the decrease in the murder rate is that people survive gunshot wounds much better than they used to. In terms of the human cost of violence that's actually great, but it's not exactly safety. And of course people have become much more safety conscious now, we drive safer cars, we walk around less, we don't let our kids out unattended, etc. All those things actually do avoid crime, and so reduce the amount of crime, but they don't increase safety. Which is to say: our tolerance for risk has gone down, and behavior has changed because of that, but that doesn't (and rationally shouldn't!) affect our concern about crime. And perceptions are really about the concern about crime (something that actually affects the person being surveyed), not the belief in what crime exists (which only abstractly affects someone) – and it is not irrational that the concern remains steady or goes up even as actual crime rates go down. It may not be good or healthy that the concern remains steady, but it's not irrational.

alexbecker 12y ago
Re your first point: every other category of violent crime has fallen as well.
lstamour 12y ago
I wondered if population growth also accounts for some of this, though by rough math, the US population has grown by 25% in the last 20 years... and this assumes that immigrants are less likely to commit crimes.
mikeyouse 12y ago
This isn't remotely true. The total violent crime rate has decreased by ~50% in the last 20 years. The rate of "Nonfatal Firearm Victimizations" has fallen by ~75% from it's 1990's peak: Overall: http://i.imgur.com/EpZQTo5.jpg http://i.imgur.com/EpZQTo5.jpg By Race: http://i.imgur.com/h7rQVf2.jpg http://i.imgur.com/h7rQVf2.jpg (From this PDF: http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fv9311.pdf http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fv9311.pdf)
- ianbicking 12y ago
  The result I've heard about may just be localized, for example in New Orleans: http://www.nola.com/opinions/index.ssf/2014/07/new_orleans_murder_rate_drop_i.html http://www.nola.com/opinions/index.ssf/2014/07/new_orleans_m... (there are several similar stories for other crime-prone metropolitan areas). Simpson's Paradox can also mess with these statistics: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox – like, is crime decreasing because we are suburbanizing? And therefore, if we hold the community type constant, is crime decreasing? And so if you ask someone "is crime decreasing in your area of perception?" then someone can reasonably answer "no". (There's also the possibility of a fallacy where everyone ratchets up their expectation – e.g., a person who moves to the city from the suburbs says crime increases because it probably has for them, but a person who moves to the suburbs from the city starts looking to media to make observations about their former neighborhood.)
  - mikeyouse 12y ago
    The math doesn't add up, and that's not data being presented from the article about New Orleans, it's an opinion piece. In 2009, there were 424 non-fatal shooting victims and 174 homicides in New Orleans. In 2013, there were 321 non-fatal shootings and 155 homicides.[1] The population of New Orleans was 354,850 in 2009 and was 378,715 in 2013.[2] So the total murder rate went from 49/100k to 41/100k (17% decrease) while the total non-fatal victimization rate went from 120/100k to 85/100k (30% decrease). To see whether or not better care made an impact, we can just multiply the number of injured by the difference in survival rates after the advanced trauma methods were introduced (14% vs. 19%). The number of non-fatal shootings would have decreased by 16, and the number of murders would have increased by the same amount. So the new rates would be 45/100k and 81/100k, still 8% and 33% improvements in the past 5 years. Simpson's Paradox doesn't cut it either; young vs. old, rural vs. urban, big city vs. little city vs. small town, black vs. white vs. hispanic, West vs. Midwest vs. South --- All rates are down across the board.[3] [1] - http://www.nola.com/crime/index.ssf/2014/01/2013_new_orleans_murder_rate_d.html http://www.nola.com/crime/index.ssf/2014/01/2013_new_orleans... [2] - http://www.census.gov/popest/data/counties/totals/2013/index.html http://www.census.gov/popest/data/counties/totals/2013/index... [3] - http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fv9311.pdf http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fv9311.pdf
anigbrowl 12y ago
Some good points, but if improved medical care were a major factor then we'd have to expect a corresponding uptick in attempted murder, which doesn't seem to be there.

alexbecker 12y ago

Re your first point: every other category of violent crime has fallen as well.

lstamour 12y ago

I wondered if population growth also accounts for some of this, though by rough math, the US population has grown by 25% in the last 20 years... and this assumes that immigrants are less likely to commit crimes.

mikeyouse 12y ago

This isn't remotely true. The total violent crime rate has decreased by ~50% in the last 20 years. The rate of "Nonfatal Firearm Victimizations" has fallen by ~75% from it's 1990's peak: Overall: http://i.imgur.com/EpZQTo5.jpg http://i.imgur.com/EpZQTo5.jpg By Race: http://i.imgur.com/h7rQVf2.jpg http://i.imgur.com/h7rQVf2.jpg (From this PDF: http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fv9311.pdf http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fv9311.pdf)

ianbicking 12y ago
The result I've heard about may just be localized, for example in New Orleans: http://www.nola.com/opinions/index.ssf/2014/07/new_orleans_murder_rate_drop_i.html http://www.nola.com/opinions/index.ssf/2014/07/new_orleans_m... (there are several similar stories for other crime-prone metropolitan areas). Simpson's Paradox can also mess with these statistics: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox – like, is crime decreasing because we are suburbanizing? And therefore, if we hold the community type constant, is crime decreasing? And so if you ask someone "is crime decreasing in your area of perception?" then someone can reasonably answer "no". (There's also the possibility of a fallacy where everyone ratchets up their expectation – e.g., a person who moves to the city from the suburbs says crime increases because it probably has for them, but a person who moves to the suburbs from the city starts looking to media to make observations about their former neighborhood.)
- mikeyouse 12y ago
  The math doesn't add up, and that's not data being presented from the article about New Orleans, it's an opinion piece. In 2009, there were 424 non-fatal shooting victims and 174 homicides in New Orleans. In 2013, there were 321 non-fatal shootings and 155 homicides.[1] The population of New Orleans was 354,850 in 2009 and was 378,715 in 2013.[2] So the total murder rate went from 49/100k to 41/100k (17% decrease) while the total non-fatal victimization rate went from 120/100k to 85/100k (30% decrease). To see whether or not better care made an impact, we can just multiply the number of injured by the difference in survival rates after the advanced trauma methods were introduced (14% vs. 19%). The number of non-fatal shootings would have decreased by 16, and the number of murders would have increased by the same amount. So the new rates would be 45/100k and 81/100k, still 8% and 33% improvements in the past 5 years. Simpson's Paradox doesn't cut it either; young vs. old, rural vs. urban, big city vs. little city vs. small town, black vs. white vs. hispanic, West vs. Midwest vs. South --- All rates are down across the board.[3] [1] - http://www.nola.com/crime/index.ssf/2014/01/2013_new_orleans_murder_rate_d.html http://www.nola.com/crime/index.ssf/2014/01/2013_new_orleans... [2] - http://www.census.gov/popest/data/counties/totals/2013/index.html http://www.census.gov/popest/data/counties/totals/2013/index... [3] - http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fv9311.pdf http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fv9311.pdf

anigbrowl 12y ago

Some good points, but if improved medical care were a major factor then we'd have to expect a corresponding uptick in attempted murder, which doesn't seem to be there.