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> Your coin example is a game of pure chance while trading on current events have much more context to inform predictions. It's really quite a difference. The
by lutusp 12y ago
> Your coin example is a game of pure chance while trading on current events have much more context to inform predictions. It's really quite a difference.
The only difference is that, in a coin toss, the statistics are much clearer. In real event forecasting, the perversities of language can make a failed forecast seem successful. Here's an example:
A seer in the Greek city of Troy issues a warning: "Beware of Greeks bearing gifts." The citizens don't know what to make of this saying, so they proceed as before.
After the now-famous Trojan Horse incident, the seer repairs her reputation by revising her earlier warning -- "I actually meant to say, 'Beware of gifts bearing Greeks'."
The bottom line is that, whether flipping coins or evaluating real-world predictions, one can separate successes from failures with equal efficiency, and an equal lack of meaning.
- danboarder 12y agoIn a prediction marketplace there are predictions that are more successful or less successful, resulting in more or less profit for the predictor. While the result may be binary, the forecast intelligence is useful in that it contains trend data that provides better predictions than any one forecaster can provide. Further, the outcomes of many individual prediction questions are multifaceted rather than binary, with four, five or more possible outcomes.
- lutusp 12y agoYes, and without rigorous scientific controls, predictions can be made to look much, much better than they really are. The study being discussed didn't even perform a statistical analysis based on the null hypothesis or produce a p-factor -- the possibility that the result came about because of chance. These are basic to science, and in their absence, the result is anecdote, not science. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P-value http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P-value Quote: "In statistical significance testing, the p-value is the probability of obtaining a test statistic result at least as extreme or as close to the one that was actually observed, assuming that the null hypothesis is true." Chance occurrences can be made to look very convincing. Consider the "Miracle Man" scheme used in investing -- on first hearing about it, many people assume it's not possible: http://www.arachnoid.com/equities_myths/index.html#Miracle_Man http://www.arachnoid.com/equities_myths/index.html#Miracle_M...