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It's an interesting article, but those conclusions seem so weak to me; little more than formalised common sense. Maybe the training you had did a better job of
by hywel 12y ago
It's an interesting article, but those conclusions seem so weak to me; little more than formalised common sense. Maybe the training you had did a better job of making them tangible.
- danboarder 12y agoI think you nailed it, it's formalized common sense (the article hints at this conclusion too). However, the unique addition of a way to track and improve forecasting performance over time is what makes this project work. This was accomplished through a few attempts at custom software in the last few years, and for this year they are using Inkling Markets, so far it is best platform I've experienced for tracking and improving prediction performance.