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>Unless you are incredibly atypical the spike in traffic will not last. The spike won't last, but it doesn't mean that it won't grow consistently from where i

>Unless you are incredibly atypical the spike in traffic will not last. The spike won't last, but it doesn't mean that it won't grow consistently from where it is into something much larger than it is today. > It tells me your either naively optimistic (sorry to inject an unpleasant reality) or trying to sell it quick to someone else who is naively optimistic. That's pretty judgmental. This obviously has the potential to grow. If he doesn't want to deal with it or maybe needs the money now, he isn't doing anything wrong by trying to sell it to someone that sees the same potential that inspired him to spend 2 years creating it. Maybe he won't get $60K, and maybe he'll get more. Maybe somebody will offer to invest in it and allow him to draw a salary while he grows it. Maybe he'll be hired by someone that has a use for the talent and dedication he displayed by building this. Regardless of the outcome, it's clearly worth something, and if he wants or needs to sell, I hope he gets a fair offer.

gus_massa 12y ago
If it grows slowly and consistently you have time to automate some of the repetitive task, find a revenue source, hire an (helpful) assistant, ... Some solutions are not abaiable during a spike. For example, if you hire a moron to help during the spike, you still have to pay him after the spike has gone or fire him. (And you have even more problems during the spike, because you have to find him and coach him.) So it's better to wait until you know if the traffic increase is permanent or it's only a spike.
RogerL 12y ago
> The spike won't last, but it doesn't mean that it won't grow consistently from where it is into something much larger than it is today. That is absolutely true, but investors don't invest based on "doesn't mean". The equation is discounted future free cash flow minus risk premium, and usually, minus how desperate you are to sell. If you are big and threatening (can take away Facebook's customers), then that adds some plus to the equation. If you are trying to sell Apple we can talk about projecting future growth - the equation changes dramatically. A PHP game with a one day spike? No. This could be the next minecraft, but more likely it'll make 1K this month, $500 next month, and so on into obscurity, is the thinking. Disagree? Show us the numbers. You'll get about 1x on those numbers, as others have ably pointed out. I think we all agree he has done extremely well to get to this point, and that we hope he gets fair value. But I can't imagine spending that much money to basically buy myself a job in the hopes of a revenue stream that the owner has not generated for himself. I think the advice he has gotten to take a breather, and take stock in a few weeks is extremely sound. If he can make a case for his revenue #s he will get a nice price for his game. But he needs to understand what investors are thinking about his pitch. That is not bashing him or being judgemental, it is merely echoing what the market is going to be thinking. How else will he get fair value? The goodness of the investor's heart? tl;dr - the things being written may be painful to read, but they come from people with experience and a friendly desire to explain how to do business valuation. It in no way implies an assumption of a limited upside in the future of the game.
mosquito_hater 12y ago
Try the game, it's really unbalanced and unfair with new players, I doubt the spike will grow much

gus_massa 12y ago

If it grows slowly and consistently you have time to automate some of the repetitive task, find a revenue source, hire an (helpful) assistant, ... Some solutions are not abaiable during a spike. For example, if you hire a moron to help during the spike, you still have to pay him after the spike has gone or fire him. (And you have even more problems during the spike, because you have to find him and coach him.) So it's better to wait until you know if the traffic increase is permanent or it's only a spike.

RogerL 12y ago

> The spike won't last, but it doesn't mean that it won't grow consistently from where it is into something much larger than it is today. That is absolutely true, but investors don't invest based on "doesn't mean". The equation is discounted future free cash flow minus risk premium, and usually, minus how desperate you are to sell. If you are big and threatening (can take away Facebook's customers), then that adds some plus to the equation. If you are trying to sell Apple we can talk about projecting future growth - the equation changes dramatically. A PHP game with a one day spike? No. This could be the next minecraft, but more likely it'll make 1K this month, $500 next month, and so on into obscurity, is the thinking. Disagree? Show us the numbers. You'll get about 1x on those numbers, as others have ably pointed out. I think we all agree he has done extremely well to get to this point, and that we hope he gets fair value. But I can't imagine spending that much money to basically buy myself a job in the hopes of a revenue stream that the owner has not generated for himself. I think the advice he has gotten to take a breather, and take stock in a few weeks is extremely sound. If he can make a case for his revenue #s he will get a nice price for his game. But he needs to understand what investors are thinking about his pitch. That is not bashing him or being judgemental, it is merely echoing what the market is going to be thinking. How else will he get fair value? The goodness of the investor's heart? tl;dr - the things being written may be painful to read, but they come from people with experience and a friendly desire to explain how to do business valuation. It in no way implies an assumption of a limited upside in the future of the game.

mosquito_hater 12y ago

Try the game, it's really unbalanced and unfair with new players, I doubt the spike will grow much