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The comments there are pretty much why people talk about a "distortion field" around Apple. It's basically person after person saying, "once all the iPhone 6 us

by deong 12y ago

The comments there are pretty much why people talk about a "distortion field" around Apple. It's basically person after person saying, "once all the iPhone 6 users start wanting to pay, they'll have to change their mind." A few stats (from http://www.statisticbrain.com/wal-mart-company-statistics/ http://www.statisticbrain.com/wal-mart-company-statistics/): Wal-Mart, as a country, would be the 19th largest economy on earth. Of every $1 spent in the US, $0.06 goes to Wal-Mart. There are 100,000,000 shoppers in Wal-Mart every week. NFC needs to become the way you expect to pay for things. Otherwise, it's Passbook -- that thing you vaguely remember that your phone can do, but that you don't really use, because in the time it takes to figure out if you can, you could just swipe your card. If anyone's going to push it mainstream in one big push, it will be Apple pairing it with new iPhones. But it's not a given that that's the way it plays out, and every large retailer who pulls out is important.

colinbartlett 12y ago
> Of every $1 spent in the US, $0.06 goes to Wal-Mart. I do not believe you. How can that possibly be true?
- deong 12y ago
  I don't know that it is -- I just pulled it from the cited link. The source cites it's own sources, and at a first glance, it seems reasonably well done, but there you go. Oh, and on second thought, maybe it would have been better to say "through" Wal-Mart. They're not making 6% of the all the profit obviously.
- svachalek 12y ago
  It did sound low so I went to the link and it says 8 cents there.
- chrisseaton 12y ago
  In the UK it's often stated that £1 in every £7 spent in the UK is spent in Tesco - a large supermarket chain. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/8471807/Its-time-Tesco-haters-stocked-up-on-facts.html http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/8471807/Its-time-Te.... This similarly sounds impossible. Maybe there's some extra constraints they don't mention - just supermarkets, or just consumer spending. I know I certainly don't spend anything like £1 out of every £7 in Tesco, or any other supermarket. For example I'm sure I've spent many times more on buying my house than I will in Tesco in my entire life. This is the sort of thing that More or Less should look at http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006qshd http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006qshd.
  - justincormack 12y ago
    That must be wrong. Tesco turnover is £63bn, UK GDP is £1550bn, so it is 4% of GDP, which is equal to total expenditure. Your house is misleading, as assuming you borrowed the money, that is other people's deferred expenditure (saved money) which you will pay back later, so that nets out when you pay the money back.
    - tim333 12y ago
      Apparently it's "Tesco is expected to confirm this week that one pound in every seven that is spent in British shops goes through its tills." So house sales not included. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1548742/1-in-every-seven-now-spent-in-Tesco.html http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1548742/1-in-every-se...
    - lazylizard 12y ago
      2 things. 1. Y = C + I + G + (X − M) . 2. but C is 250838 GBP Million in the first quarter of 2014, 249105 GBP Million in the fourth quarter of 2013. so C is around 1 billion.
spacemanmatt 12y ago
Oh, the comment section.
ck2 12y ago
Also interesting to note Walmart receives an absolutely MASSIVE amount of income from food stamps and other federal/state assistance. Their sales surge on days people's benefits are filled. 18 percent of all (national) SNAP sales are conducted at its stores—about $13 billion annually http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2014/04/big_box_stores_make_billions_off_food_stamps_often_it_s_their_own_workers.html http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2014/04/big_...
- kalleboo 12y ago
  So Apple Pay will need to support EBT cards...
  - deong 12y ago
    That part is presumably easy enough, but it won't matter if you can't convince Wal-Mart to spend an extra $X per reader across every checkout aisle in their massive network of stores.
- Sambdala 12y ago
  If this (from another comment) is true: "A quick google tells me Walmart has 11% of the us retail market and an estimated 18% of the grocery market, however again this is not a good indicator of their overall size of pos transactions, it does indicate that their numbers are likely better than 6%." Then 18% of all SNAP sales seem incredibly reasonable given they make up 18% of the US grocery market. Even without that stat, this has always struck me as a substanceless, emotional argument. If you have a program to give people money to go spend on groceries in grocery stores, then they're going to use that money to go spend money in grocery stores. If you're super concerned there might be a margin on those products, then what's the alternative solution to whatever the stated goal of SNAP is? I guess you could always scrap SNAP and create government farms and bakeries or something. That could never be less efficient or have any unforseen side effects...
rsvihla 12y ago
> Of every $1 spent in the US, $0.06 goes to Wal-Mart. Apple here is trying to get into processing payments for your groceries, food and clothes. I'm not sure you've thought through what the statistics are saying. Every dollar in the US counts payments like mortgage, car, student loans, etc. These are not only high dollar items that make up a huge percentage of most people's monthly expenses, they don't add up to a large frequency. These high dollar low volume payments in effect totally negate the value of looking at Walmart's influence from a percentage of the total US dollars spent. A quick google tells me Walmart has 11% of the us retail market and an estimated 18% of the grocery market, however again this is not a good indicator of their overall size of pos transactions, it does indicate that their numbers are likely better than 6%.
- 7952 12y ago
  The real killer app for contact-less payments are not the big wall mart grocery shop. It is small payments that would usually need cash like a sandwich or magazine. These are also the kind of shops where loyalty schemes can be important. Think of the small coffee shop handing out "fifth cup of coffee free" cards. Think how easy it would be for apple to roll out loyalty schemes or promotions and absorb the cost into the transaction fee.
  - feld 12y ago
    Every other solution for this currently sucks. Someone needs to do it the right way. It's possible that Apple could do it better.
    - deleted 12y ago
      [deleted]
  - deong 12y ago
    I agree, but all the little coffee shops and convenience stores are more likely to adopt a new payment scheme if it becomes ubiquitous, and for that, it has to be adopted by the Wal-Marts and Best Buys of the world.
- 12y ago

by deong 12y ago

colinbartlett 12y ago

> Of every $1 spent in the US, $0.06 goes to Wal-Mart. I do not believe you. How can that possibly be true?

deong 12y ago
I don't know that it is -- I just pulled it from the cited link. The source cites it's own sources, and at a first glance, it seems reasonably well done, but there you go. Oh, and on second thought, maybe it would have been better to say "through" Wal-Mart. They're not making 6% of the all the profit obviously.
svachalek 12y ago
It did sound low so I went to the link and it says 8 cents there.
chrisseaton 12y ago
In the UK it's often stated that £1 in every £7 spent in the UK is spent in Tesco - a large supermarket chain. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/8471807/Its-time-Tesco-haters-stocked-up-on-facts.html http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/8471807/Its-time-Te.... This similarly sounds impossible. Maybe there's some extra constraints they don't mention - just supermarkets, or just consumer spending. I know I certainly don't spend anything like £1 out of every £7 in Tesco, or any other supermarket. For example I'm sure I've spent many times more on buying my house than I will in Tesco in my entire life. This is the sort of thing that More or Less should look at http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006qshd http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006qshd.
- justincormack 12y ago
  That must be wrong. Tesco turnover is £63bn, UK GDP is £1550bn, so it is 4% of GDP, which is equal to total expenditure. Your house is misleading, as assuming you borrowed the money, that is other people's deferred expenditure (saved money) which you will pay back later, so that nets out when you pay the money back.
  - tim333 12y ago
    Apparently it's "Tesco is expected to confirm this week that one pound in every seven that is spent in British shops goes through its tills." So house sales not included. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1548742/1-in-every-seven-now-spent-in-Tesco.html http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1548742/1-in-every-se...
  - lazylizard 12y ago
    2 things. 1. Y = C + I + G + (X − M) . 2. but C is 250838 GBP Million in the first quarter of 2014, 249105 GBP Million in the fourth quarter of 2013. so C is around 1 billion.

spacemanmatt 12y ago

Oh, the comment section.

ck2 12y ago

Also interesting to note Walmart receives an absolutely MASSIVE amount of income from food stamps and other federal/state assistance. Their sales surge on days people's benefits are filled. 18 percent of all (national) SNAP sales are conducted at its stores—about $13 billion annually http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2014/04/big_box_stores_make_billions_off_food_stamps_often_it_s_their_own_workers.html http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2014/04/big_...

kalleboo 12y ago
So Apple Pay will need to support EBT cards...
- deong 12y ago
  That part is presumably easy enough, but it won't matter if you can't convince Wal-Mart to spend an extra $X per reader across every checkout aisle in their massive network of stores.
Sambdala 12y ago
If this (from another comment) is true: "A quick google tells me Walmart has 11% of the us retail market and an estimated 18% of the grocery market, however again this is not a good indicator of their overall size of pos transactions, it does indicate that their numbers are likely better than 6%." Then 18% of all SNAP sales seem incredibly reasonable given they make up 18% of the US grocery market. Even without that stat, this has always struck me as a substanceless, emotional argument. If you have a program to give people money to go spend on groceries in grocery stores, then they're going to use that money to go spend money in grocery stores. If you're super concerned there might be a margin on those products, then what's the alternative solution to whatever the stated goal of SNAP is? I guess you could always scrap SNAP and create government farms and bakeries or something. That could never be less efficient or have any unforseen side effects...

rsvihla 12y ago

> Of every $1 spent in the US, $0.06 goes to Wal-Mart. Apple here is trying to get into processing payments for your groceries, food and clothes. I'm not sure you've thought through what the statistics are saying. Every dollar in the US counts payments like mortgage, car, student loans, etc. These are not only high dollar items that make up a huge percentage of most people's monthly expenses, they don't add up to a large frequency. These high dollar low volume payments in effect totally negate the value of looking at Walmart's influence from a percentage of the total US dollars spent. A quick google tells me Walmart has 11% of the us retail market and an estimated 18% of the grocery market, however again this is not a good indicator of their overall size of pos transactions, it does indicate that their numbers are likely better than 6%.

7952 12y ago
The real killer app for contact-less payments are not the big wall mart grocery shop. It is small payments that would usually need cash like a sandwich or magazine. These are also the kind of shops where loyalty schemes can be important. Think of the small coffee shop handing out "fifth cup of coffee free" cards. Think how easy it would be for apple to roll out loyalty schemes or promotions and absorb the cost into the transaction fee.
- feld 12y ago
  Every other solution for this currently sucks. Someone needs to do it the right way. It's possible that Apple could do it better.
  - deleted 12y ago
    [deleted]
- deong 12y ago
  I agree, but all the little coffee shops and convenience stores are more likely to adopt a new payment scheme if it becomes ubiquitous, and for that, it has to be adopted by the Wal-Marts and Best Buys of the world.
12y ago