Assuming for the sake of argument that in 1986 you'd have expected Microsoft not to be a huge success, a "yes" answer to that question would have been considera

Assuming for the sake of argument that in 1986 you'd have expected Microsoft not to be a huge success, a "yes" answer to that question would have been considerably more than 1 bit of new information for you. (And therefore, of course, a "no" answer would have been somewhat less than 1 bit of new information.) Of course I agree that a bit from PG is not as reliable as a bit from God (making the obviously-necessary assumptions about God). But that's not a problem about bits. :-)