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Further to the 2 excellent answers you have already received, it is also important to know that we have been attempting to create a vaccine or even effective tr

Further to the 2 excellent answers you have already received, it is also important to know that we have been attempting to create a vaccine or even effective treatment for Ebola for a relatively long time (it was first encountered in 1976). Compare this to the common flu that we prepare a reliable vaccine for every single year. In the event of a truly global Ebola pandemic, we would be unlikely to be able to develop an effective vaccine in anything near a reasonable length of time. It is so much so the stuff of nightmares that an Ebola pandemic is the premise for a number of fictional works.

HarryHirsch 12y ago
The fact that there are a monoclonal antibody, an RNA-i drug and an experimental vaccine available three months after is became clear that the West Africa outbreak is out of control tells me that our friends at Fort Detrick and their colleagues at Biopreparat took precautions, in case it would be used against them. For a bioweapon, Ebola has the disadvantage that there is person-to-person transmission. On the other hand, the experience in Uganda shows that with proper medical facilities, an outbreak can be brought under control, Uganda is a reasonably developed nation, and the disease never spun out of control there. On the other hand, Sierra Leone and Liberia never recovered from the civil wars in both countries, which is why the epidemic is spreading like wildfire over there. On the battlefield, it would do just that.
- spydum 12y ago
  My understanding is the mutation rate of ebola is significant. Current person-to-person transmission can be brought under control as you mentioned. However, if it mutated to something more transmissive (is that a word?? I declare it so!), plenty of sci-fi's will turn in to prophecy.
  - HarryHirsch 12y ago
    According to this paper here (http://mbe.oxfordjournals.org/content/14/8/800.full.pdf http://mbe.oxfordjournals.org/content/14/8/800.full.pdf) the mutation rate in the Ebolavirus is comparatively low for an RNA virus, two orders of magnitude less than in influenza or HIV. We have brought highly transmissive diseases, like measles and rubella, under control with vaccination; both of these happen to be caused by RNA viruses. There will be a doomsday epidemic in the future, but Ebola won't be it, at least not for the West. Ever-more common antibiotic resistance in common bacteria is much, much more reason for concern.

HarryHirsch 12y ago

The fact that there are a monoclonal antibody, an RNA-i drug and an experimental vaccine available three months after is became clear that the West Africa outbreak is out of control tells me that our friends at Fort Detrick and their colleagues at Biopreparat took precautions, in case it would be used against them. For a bioweapon, Ebola has the disadvantage that there is person-to-person transmission. On the other hand, the experience in Uganda shows that with proper medical facilities, an outbreak can be brought under control, Uganda is a reasonably developed nation, and the disease never spun out of control there. On the other hand, Sierra Leone and Liberia never recovered from the civil wars in both countries, which is why the epidemic is spreading like wildfire over there. On the battlefield, it would do just that.

spydum 12y ago
My understanding is the mutation rate of ebola is significant. Current person-to-person transmission can be brought under control as you mentioned. However, if it mutated to something more transmissive (is that a word?? I declare it so!), plenty of sci-fi's will turn in to prophecy.
- HarryHirsch 12y ago
  According to this paper here (http://mbe.oxfordjournals.org/content/14/8/800.full.pdf http://mbe.oxfordjournals.org/content/14/8/800.full.pdf) the mutation rate in the Ebolavirus is comparatively low for an RNA virus, two orders of magnitude less than in influenza or HIV. We have brought highly transmissive diseases, like measles and rubella, under control with vaccination; both of these happen to be caused by RNA viruses. There will be a doomsday epidemic in the future, but Ebola won't be it, at least not for the West. Ever-more common antibiotic resistance in common bacteria is much, much more reason for concern.