I think you seriously underestimate Japanese willingness to fight. Lets say China decides to call US bluff and lands Marines on Senkakus tomorrow. To do that t

I think you seriously underestimate Japanese willingness to fight. Lets say China decides to call US bluff and lands Marines on Senkakus tomorrow. To do that they would need to sink multiple Japanese coast guard vessels and kill a lot of Japanese sailors. What next? Obama says something about how he is unhappy. Japan is now probably incapable of direct landing on Senkaku right now IF it is opposed. It is however more then capable to sweeping Chinese planes out of the sky in the area. In the air war tech and training >> numbers. The other aspect of the war will be naval and Japan operates the best submarine fleet in Asia, given freedom they would inflict horrendous losses on Chinese surface fleet. Chillingly at the same time PM of Japan knowing that he was betrayed by US would give an order to weaponize Japanese stockpile of weapon grade material and in a matter of weeks? month? Japan will test multiple fusion devices. Now the real game begins. In reality I do not think that China will play this game now, their leaders are not Putin and Japan is not Ukraine. I think confrontation or war between China and India and/or Japan will happen but not yet. 10-15 years from now?